Avaragado and friends predict 2026

Here’s the second of my annual posts, in which my friends and I offer ridiculous predictions for the year ahead. This NYE, Chef was “working” and could only spare two hours, a beer and half a bottle of wine with us before scootering back to his laptop. AndyC extricated himself from his family for the second half of the extravaganza.

To liven up the occasion, we decided to invite ChatGPT to weigh in too. It knows that I’m David and has a history of my chat sessions, but no information about anyone else. I’ve lightly edited the formatting and chopped extraneous stuff. I told it these are predictions for 2026, but it gave me later dates occasionally. The first 4 questions used GPT-5.2; then it dropped to GPT-5 Mini. You can see the difference in tone.

Buckle up.

Predictions

  • Chef: When will David finally get a new job?
    • Melanie: April
    • Chef: June
    • Chris: May
    • Adrian: April
    • Louise: March
    • David: May
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction: Late spring to early summer — think April–June.
      • It comes after a period of mild frustration where it feels like nothing’s moving, then suddenly two things land close together: one safe-but-meh, one that’s actually interesting. You take the second.
      • It’s not a total career pivot, but is a shift in emphasis — more people-facing / creative / problem-solving than your last role, and a noticeably healthier work culture.
      • Bonus prophecy: you’ll look back later in the year and say, “Thank God that earlier thing didn’t work out.”
  • Chef: Chris says he’ll have a “vegetarian, dry January”. When will he give up? (Two January dates permitted: first for meat, second for booze. Melanie will judge.)
    • Melanie: 2, 2
    • Chef: 5, 7
    • Chris: 30, 30
    • Adrian: 2, 2
    • Louise: 10, 3
    • David: 30, 2
    • AndyC: 1, 1
    • ChatGPT:
      • Ah yes, the Veganuary + Dry January hubris combo. A classic. 🔮🥕
      • Prediction:
        • Dry January collapses first: Friday 17 January (socially induced; someone says “just one pint”).
        • Vegetarian January limps on slightly longer, but falls on Tuesday 21 January, almost certainly via a sausage roll that “doesn’t really count”.
      • He will insist — sincerely — that this is still basically a success.
  • David: When will Keir Starmer stop being Prime Minister? (“Never” means “he’ll still be PM into 2027”)
    • Melanie: March
    • Chef: Never
    • Chris: Never
    • Adrian: May
    • Louise: Never
    • David: June
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction:
      • Keir Starmer does make it into 2027, but doesn’t enjoy the full journey.
      • My guess is a late-2027 handover rather than a dramatic collapse — pressure from within rather than a sudden external shock. Think “time for a refresh” energy, not a coup. He leaves having been competent, steady, and slightly unloved.
      • If he does go earlier, the danger zone is mid-to-late 2026, after a rough patch where “safe pair of hands” stops being enough.
  • Chris: In which month will the usual suspects visit a restaurant the majority of us haven’t visited before? (This is Chris’s attempt to get us to go to new places.)
    • Melanie: June
    • Chef: May
    • Chris: August
    • Adrian: May
    • Louise: February
    • David: June
    • AndyC: We won’t
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction: September.
      • Reasoning (very scientific):
        • Winter = habits + comfort food
        • Spring = good intentions, zero follow-through
        • Summer = people away / weather excuses
        • Early autumn is when someone finally says “Right, I’ve booked it” and no one has the energy to argue
      • It’ll be described afterward as “actually really good, we should do that more”, and then you won’t, for at least six months.
  • Chef: When will Russell T Davies and his newly revealed squeeze publicly break up?
    • Melanie: September
    • Chef: October
    • Chris: Late September
    • Adrian: They won’t
    • Louise: They won’t
    • David: July
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction:
      • 🔮 No public breakup in 2026. In fact, if they do part ways publicly, the most likely window is late 2027, around November/December, when either the intensity of work projects or the age‑gap dynamics might show strain.
      • This isn’t based on concrete facts about their personal situation (there are no confirmed plans for a split in the reliable reporting yet) — it’s more of a tongue‑in‑cheek New Year’s prediction based on the idea that new relationships often get past an initial year milestone before people reassess publicly.
      • So: probably still together through 2026, with a “maybe” toward late 2027 (and even that is speculative). 💫
  • Louise: When will an AI be legally recognised as a person? (Any jurisdiction counts)
    • Melanie: October
    • Chef: It won’t
    • Chris: September
    • Adrian: It won’t
    • Louise: September
    • David: It won’t
    • AndyC: It won’t
    • ChatGPT:
      • 🔮 Prediction: 2032–2036, and it won’t be full “personhood”.
      • It’ll happen sideways, not head‑on:
        • A small, tech‑forward jurisdiction (or a court within one)
        • Limited status like “electronic legal person” or “autonomous agent”
        • Rights narrowly framed around contracts, liability, or ownership, not human rights
      • Think: “This AI can be sued / can hold assets / needs a legal wrapper” rather than “this AI can vote”.
      • Bonus prophecy: everyone will argue whether it “counts”, and lawyers will say yes, philosophers no, and headlines absolutely.
  • Adrian: How many countries will boycott Eurovision?
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chef: 1
    • Chris: 4
    • Adrian: 14
    • Louise: 8
    • David: 7
    • AndyC: 7
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction for 2026:
      • 🎤 Five countries will boycott Eurovision.
  • Adrian: How many medals of any colour will Team GB win at the Winter Olympics (excluding Paralympics)?
    • Melanie: 4
    • Chef: 3 (1 gold, 2 bronze)
    • Chris: 5
    • Adrian: 6
    • Louise: 1
    • David: 3
    • AndyC: 2
    • ChatGPT:
      • 🇬🇧 Prediction: 2–6 total medals (any colour) in February 2026.
      • Why this range?
        • Historically, Team GB has never won more than five medals at a Winter Olympics — that happened at both Sochi 2014 and Pyeongchang 2018. They won two medals in Beijing 2022
        • The team’s strongest prospects include curling, snowboard (Mia Brookes), and freestyle events where podium chances have grown, plus improved competitiveness across some other sliding and skiing events. 
        • Realistic optimism from commentators and some world‑cup success suggest challenging the old record is possible — but not guaranteed. 
      • So:
        • Low end: 2 medals (similar to 2022), if key contenders just miss out.
        • High end: 6 medals, if several British athletes overperform and a couple sneak into the podium in new events.
      • I’d lean toward 4 medals as my best guess — enough to be a strong performance by Winter standards for Team GB.
  • Melanie: Who will be named the next actor to play James Bond?
    • Melanie: Regé-Jean Page
    • Chef: Jonathan Bailey
    • Chris: Barry Keoghan
    • Adrian: Idris Elba
    • Louise: Cynthia Erivo
    • David: Jonathan Bailey
    • AndyC: Aaron Taylor-Johnson
    • ChatGPT:
      • 👉 Best prediction right now:
      • If the announcement happens in 2026–2027, the next Bond is most likely to be Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor‑Johnson — with Turner currently leading in the speculation stakes.
  • Celebrity deaths:
    • Melanie: Joe Biden, Al Pacino, Ariana Grande
    • Chef: Pauline Quirke
    • Chris: Timothée Chalamet, Elton John
    • Adrian: Katie Price
    • Louise: Donald Trump
    • David: Donald Trump, Queen Camilla
    • AndyC: Donald Trump, Elon Musk
    • ChatGPT: I didn’t ask – I don’t want my account flagged

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