Avaragado and friends predict 2026

Here’s the second of my annual posts, in which my friends and I offer ridiculous predictions for the year ahead. This NYE, Chef was “working” and could only spare two hours, a beer and half a bottle of wine with us before scootering back to his laptop. AndyC extricated himself from his family for the second half of the extravaganza.

To liven up the occasion, we decided to invite ChatGPT to weigh in too. It knows that I’m David and has a history of my chat sessions, but no information about anyone else. I’ve lightly edited the formatting and chopped extraneous stuff. I told it these are predictions for 2026, but it gave me later dates occasionally. The first 4 questions used GPT-5.2; then it dropped to GPT-5 Mini. You can see the difference in tone.

Buckle up.

Predictions

  • Chef: When will David finally get a new job?
    • Melanie: April
    • Chef: June
    • Chris: May
    • Adrian: April
    • Louise: March
    • David: May
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction: Late spring to early summer — think April–June.
      • It comes after a period of mild frustration where it feels like nothing’s moving, then suddenly two things land close together: one safe-but-meh, one that’s actually interesting. You take the second.
      • It’s not a total career pivot, but is a shift in emphasis — more people-facing / creative / problem-solving than your last role, and a noticeably healthier work culture.
      • Bonus prophecy: you’ll look back later in the year and say, “Thank God that earlier thing didn’t work out.”
  • Chef: Chris says he’ll have a “vegetarian, dry January”. When will he give up? (Two January dates permitted: first for meat, second for booze. Melanie will judge.)
    • Melanie: 2, 2
    • Chef: 5, 7
    • Chris: 30, 30
    • Adrian: 2, 2
    • Louise: 10, 3
    • David: 30, 2
    • AndyC: 1, 1
    • ChatGPT:
      • Ah yes, the Veganuary + Dry January hubris combo. A classic. 🔮🥕
      • Prediction:
        • Dry January collapses first: Friday 17 January (socially induced; someone says “just one pint”).
        • Vegetarian January limps on slightly longer, but falls on Tuesday 21 January, almost certainly via a sausage roll that “doesn’t really count”.
      • He will insist — sincerely — that this is still basically a success.
  • David: When will Keir Starmer stop being Prime Minister? (“Never” means “he’ll still be PM into 2027”)
    • Melanie: March
    • Chef: Never
    • Chris: Never
    • Adrian: May
    • Louise: Never
    • David: June
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction:
      • Keir Starmer does make it into 2027, but doesn’t enjoy the full journey.
      • My guess is a late-2027 handover rather than a dramatic collapse — pressure from within rather than a sudden external shock. Think “time for a refresh” energy, not a coup. He leaves having been competent, steady, and slightly unloved.
      • If he does go earlier, the danger zone is mid-to-late 2026, after a rough patch where “safe pair of hands” stops being enough.
  • Chris: In which month will the usual suspects visit a restaurant the majority of us haven’t visited before? (This is Chris’s attempt to get us to go to new places.)
    • Melanie: June
    • Chef: May
    • Chris: August
    • Adrian: May
    • Louise: February
    • David: June
    • AndyC: We won’t
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction: September.
      • Reasoning (very scientific):
        • Winter = habits + comfort food
        • Spring = good intentions, zero follow-through
        • Summer = people away / weather excuses
        • Early autumn is when someone finally says “Right, I’ve booked it” and no one has the energy to argue
      • It’ll be described afterward as “actually really good, we should do that more”, and then you won’t, for at least six months.
  • Chef: When will Russell T Davies and his newly revealed squeeze publicly break up?
    • Melanie: September
    • Chef: October
    • Chris: Late September
    • Adrian: They won’t
    • Louise: They won’t
    • David: July
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction:
      • 🔮 No public breakup in 2026. In fact, if they do part ways publicly, the most likely window is late 2027, around November/December, when either the intensity of work projects or the age‑gap dynamics might show strain.
      • This isn’t based on concrete facts about their personal situation (there are no confirmed plans for a split in the reliable reporting yet) — it’s more of a tongue‑in‑cheek New Year’s prediction based on the idea that new relationships often get past an initial year milestone before people reassess publicly.
      • So: probably still together through 2026, with a “maybe” toward late 2027 (and even that is speculative). 💫
  • Louise: When will an AI be legally recognised as a person? (Any jurisdiction counts)
    • Melanie: October
    • Chef: It won’t
    • Chris: September
    • Adrian: It won’t
    • Louise: September
    • David: It won’t
    • AndyC: It won’t
    • ChatGPT:
      • 🔮 Prediction: 2032–2036, and it won’t be full “personhood”.
      • It’ll happen sideways, not head‑on:
        • A small, tech‑forward jurisdiction (or a court within one)
        • Limited status like “electronic legal person” or “autonomous agent”
        • Rights narrowly framed around contracts, liability, or ownership, not human rights
      • Think: “This AI can be sued / can hold assets / needs a legal wrapper” rather than “this AI can vote”.
      • Bonus prophecy: everyone will argue whether it “counts”, and lawyers will say yes, philosophers no, and headlines absolutely.
  • Adrian: How many countries will boycott Eurovision?
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chef: 1
    • Chris: 4
    • Adrian: 14
    • Louise: 8
    • David: 7
    • AndyC: 7
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction for 2026:
      • 🎤 Five countries will boycott Eurovision.
  • Adrian: How many medals of any colour will Team GB win at the Winter Olympics (excluding Paralympics)?
    • Melanie: 4
    • Chef: 3 (1 gold, 2 bronze)
    • Chris: 5
    • Adrian: 6
    • Louise: 1
    • David: 3
    • AndyC: 2
    • ChatGPT:
      • 🇬🇧 Prediction: 2–6 total medals (any colour) in February 2026.
      • Why this range?
        • Historically, Team GB has never won more than five medals at a Winter Olympics — that happened at both Sochi 2014 and Pyeongchang 2018. They won two medals in Beijing 2022
        • The team’s strongest prospects include curling, snowboard (Mia Brookes), and freestyle events where podium chances have grown, plus improved competitiveness across some other sliding and skiing events. 
        • Realistic optimism from commentators and some world‑cup success suggest challenging the old record is possible — but not guaranteed. 
      • So:
        • Low end: 2 medals (similar to 2022), if key contenders just miss out.
        • High end: 6 medals, if several British athletes overperform and a couple sneak into the podium in new events.
      • I’d lean toward 4 medals as my best guess — enough to be a strong performance by Winter standards for Team GB.
  • Melanie: Who will be named the next actor to play James Bond?
    • Melanie: Regé-Jean Page
    • Chef: Jonathan Bailey
    • Chris: Barry Keoghan
    • Adrian: Idris Elba
    • Louise: Cynthia Erivo
    • David: Jonathan Bailey
    • AndyC: Aaron Taylor-Johnson
    • ChatGPT:
      • 👉 Best prediction right now:
      • If the announcement happens in 2026–2027, the next Bond is most likely to be Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor‑Johnson — with Turner currently leading in the speculation stakes.
  • Celebrity deaths:
    • Melanie: Joe Biden, Al Pacino, Ariana Grande
    • Chef: Pauline Quirke
    • Chris: Timothée Chalamet, Elton John
    • Adrian: Katie Price
    • Louise: Donald Trump
    • David: Donald Trump, Queen Camilla
    • AndyC: Donald Trump, Elon Musk
    • ChatGPT: I didn’t ask – I don’t want my account flagged

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Avaragado’s 2025 predictions – results

Yes, it’s my annual brace of blog posts. First, the predictable outcomes of last year’s predictions – see below – and later, once the alcohol has evaporated and/or metabolised from the annual prediction/booze-up extravaganza, our ridiculous theories for the year ahead.

My comments are in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Chef: When will the next Gaza ceasefire be?
    • Adrian: none
    • Louise: Trump will claim there is one, but there isn’t
      • [Pretty accurate]
    • AndyC: There may be ceasefires but they don’t count as everyone will keep shooting
      • [Also pretty accurate]
    • Chef: March
    • Chris: “Half-past four”
    • Melanie: February
    • Jo: Christmas Day temporary ceasefire
    • AndyH: There won’t be any that work
      • [Arguably true]
    • David: none
      • [Wrong but also right]
    • [Technically there was a ceasefire in January 2025, and a Gaza peace plan was signed in October 2025]
  • Chris: Who/whom/what will be the next casualty of the high street?
    • Adrian: Fopp
    • Louise: Costa
    • AndyC: WHSmith, Next
    • Chef: Prezzo
    • Chris: Zizzi
    • Melanie: Fat Face
    • Jo: Miss Selfridge
    • AndyH: WHSmith
    • David: WHSmith
    • [WHSmith disappeared from the high street in 2025, replaced by identical shops with the made-up comedy name TGJones. WHSmith still exists in airports, railway stations, and other travel-related locations for the purposes of confusion]
  • David: When will Trump sack/get rid of Musk?
    • Adrian: October
    • Louise: He won’t
    • AndyC: He won’t
    • Chef: September
    • Chris: January
    • Melanie: January, but Musk won’t accept it
    • Jo: December
    • AndyH: Q1
    • David: January
    • [It was in June, but they’ve since been flirting again]
  • Louise: Will Musk become a trillionaire?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • Chef: No, $100bn
    • Chris: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Jo: No
    • AndyH: Yes
    • David: No
    • [Not yet. At time of writing he’s supposedly worth about $750bn. In related news, we’re all doomed]
  • Chef: How many press secretaries will Trump get through by the end of 2025?
    • Adrian: 1
    • Louise: 2
    • AndyC: 3
    • Chef: 2
    • Chris: 1
    • Melanie: 3
    • Jo: 5
    • AndyH: 3
    • David: 2
    • [Astonishingly he’s still on his first press secretary, so Adrian and Chris win this one]
  • Adrian: Will Keir Starmer still be PM on the last day of 2025?
    • Adrian: no
    • Louise: yes
    • AndyC: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • Jo: yes
    • AndyH: yes
    • David: yes
    • [He still is. Whether he’ll still be around at the end of 2026 is another matter]
  • Jo: When/will the wars/fighting in Ukraine/Gaza/Syria/Lebanon end?
    • Adrian: Ukraine still at war; same for Gaza
    • Louise: Ukraine and Gaza “going to drag on”
    • AndyC: “They will all form a single state in rebellion against the rest of the world”
    • Chef: Ukraine: January; Syria “will remain not at war”; Gaza: September; Lebanon: September
    • Chris: July
    • Melanie: No
    • Jo: Never; maybe Christmas Day temporary ceasefire
    • AndyH: Syria/Gaza no; Ukraine “cold war” but no real end, with a de-escalation
    • David: Everything will drag on
    • [Russia/Ukraine is still ongoing. Israel/Gaza is in a “ceasefire”]
  • David: How many books will Anthony Camber sell in 2025? (Everyone was told that two new books are coming and AC sold almost nothing in 2024 with no new books out.)
    • Adrian: 22
    • Louise: 7
    • AndyC: 7
    • Chef: 12
    • Chris: 43
    • Melanie: 10
    • Jo: 5000
    • AndyH: 7
    • David: 50
    • [The numbers: 53 Amazon sales – paperback and ebook – plus roughly another 4 if you add Kindle Unlimited page reads, and one more ebook on Kobo. So about 58 overall]
  • David: What will be the UK’s highest temperature?
    • Adrian: 40.2
    • Louise: 42
    • AndyC: 41
    • Chef: 38
    • Chris: 220 (200 fan)
    • Melanie: 39
    • Jo: 45
    • AndyH: 38
    • David: 39
    • [According to the Met Office: 35.8ºC, set in Faversham, Kent on 1 July]
  • Chef: Which month will Chris and Melanie sell (complete) their old house?
    • Adrian: April
    • Louise: September
    • AndyC: In November they sell the new house and move back to the old house
    • Chef: July
    • Chris: December
    • Melanie: September
    • Jo: April
    • AndyH: September
    • David: July
    • [It was in November]
  • AndyC: Will the Town and Gown still be called the Town and Gown?
    • Adrian: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • AndyC: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • Jo: yes
    • AndyH: yes
    • David: yes
    • [Yes]
  • Melanie: How many bottles of wine will Chris buy at auction?
    • Adrian: 0
    • Louise: 0
    • AndyC: 0
    • Chef: 5
    • Chris: 0
    • Melanie: 6
    • Jo: 5
    • AndyH: 3
    • David: 5
    • [The official total is zero]
  • Celebrity deaths:
    • Adrian: Chris Hoy
    • Louise: Bruce Willis
    • AndyC: Dick van Dyke, Vladimir Putin
    • Chef: Richard E Grant
    • Chris: Gloria Hunniford
    • Melanie: Katie Price
    • Jo: Someone in royalty
    • AndyH: Tom Baker
    • David: Donald Trump
    • [“Someone in royalty”, yes: the Duchess of Kent died in September. Arguably we’re another royal down with the disenprincement of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor. Everyone else named above is still alive]

Coming soon: 2026.

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Avaragado and friends predict 2025

Our New Year’s Steve lunch took place as usual at the Town and Gown (né B Bar), after which I drunk-footed it to Stratford via rail-replacement bus and train to see in the new year in our nation’s capital but nowhere near the fireworks. The following day, due to a tree on the line and definitely unrelated to Stan’s VR headset and 3D printer, I returned in the evening via National Express coaches through Stansted. Hence the unseemly delay with these predictions, which are accompanied this year by a light cough.

Predictions

  • Chef: When will the next Gaza ceasefire be?
    • Adrian: none
    • Louise: Trump will claim there is one, but there isn’t
    • AndyC: There may be ceasefires but they don’t count as everyone will keep shooting
    • Chef: March
    • Chris: “Half-past four”
    • Melanie: February
    • Jo: Christmas Day temporary ceasefire
    • AndyH: There won’t be any that work
    • David: none
  • Chris: Who/whom/what will be the next casualty of the high street?
    • Adrian: Fopp
    • Louise: Costa
    • AndyC: WHSmith, Next
    • Chef: Prezzo
    • Chris: Zizzi
    • Melanie: Fat Face
    • Jo: Miss Selfridge
    • AndyH: WHSmith
    • David: WHSmith
  • David: When will Trump sack/get rid of Musk?
    • Adrian: October
    • Louise: He won’t
    • AndyC: He won’t
    • Chef: September
    • Chris: January
    • Melanie: January, but Musk won’t accept it
    • Jo: December
    • AndyH: Q1
    • David: January
  • Louise: Will Musk become a trillionaire?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • Chef: No, $100bn
    • Chris: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Jo: No
    • AndyH: Yes
    • David: No
  • Chef: How many press secretaries will Trump get through by the end of 2025?
    • Adrian: 1
    • Louise: 2
    • AndyC: 3
    • Chef: 2
    • Chris: 1
    • Melanie: 3
    • Jo: 5
    • AndyH: 3
    • David: 2
  • Adrian: Will Keir Starmer still be PM on the last day of 2025?
    • Adrian: no
    • Louise: yes
    • AndyC: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • Jo: yes
    • AndyH: yes
    • David: yes
  • Jo: When/will the wars/fighting in Ukraine/Gaza/Syria/Lebanon end?
    • Adrian: Ukraine still at war; same for Gaza
    • Louise: Ukraine and Gaza “going to drag on”
    • AndyC: “They will all form a single state in rebellion against the rest of the world”
    • Chef: Ukraine: January; Syria “will remain not at war”; Gaza: September; Lebanon: September
    • Chris: July
    • Melanie: No
    • Jo: Never; maybe Christmas Day temporary ceasefire
    • AndyH: Syria/Gaza no; Ukraine “cold war” but no real end, with a de-escalation
    • David: Everything will drag on
  • David: How many books will Anthony Camber sell in 2025? (Everyone was told that two new books are coming and AC sold almost nothing in 2024 with no new books out.)
    • Adrian: 22
    • Louise: 7
    • AndyC: 7
    • Chef: 12
    • Chris: 43
    • Melanie: 10
    • Jo: 5000
    • AndyH: 7
    • David: 50
  • David: What will be the UK’s highest temperature?
    • Adrian: 40.2
    • Louise: 42
    • AndyC: 41
    • Chef: 38
    • Chris: 220 (200 fan)
    • Melanie: 39
    • Jo: 45
    • AndyH: 38
    • David: 39
  • Chef: Which month will Chris and Melanie sell (complete) their old house?
    • Adrian: April
    • Louise: September
    • AndyC: In November they sell the new house and move back to the old house
    • Chef: July
    • Chris: December
    • Melanie: September
    • Jo: April
    • AndyH: September
    • David: July
  • AndyC: Will the Town and Gown still be called the Town and Gown?
    • Adrian: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • AndyC: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • Jo: yes
    • AndyH: yes
    • David: yes
  • Melanie: How many bottles of wine will Chris buy at auction?
    • Adrian: 0
    • Louise: 0
    • AndyC: 0
    • Chef: 5
    • Chris: 0
    • Melanie: 6
    • Jo: 5
    • AndyH: 3
    • David: 5
  • Celebrity deaths:
    • Adrian: Chris Hoy
    • Louise: Bruce Willis
    • AndyC: Dick van Dyke, Vladimir Putin
    • Chef: Richard E Grant
    • Chris: Gloria Hunniford
    • Melanie: Katie Price
    • Jo: Someone in royalty
    • AndyH: Tom Baker
    • David: Donald Trump

See you next year!

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Avaragado’s 2024 predictions – results

You know the drill. At the tail end of 2023 we made confident/drunk predictions for 2024 and let’s now all bask in the radioactively wrong results.

My comments are in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Randoms:
    • AndyC: Virgin Galactic goes completely bust “and stops”
      • [Does not appear to have come true]
    • Chris: “Humanity lands on the moon before the end of 2024”
      • [Nope, taking “humanity” to mean “humans”]
  • David: When will the general election be?
    • Adrian: June
    • Louise: June
    • AndyC: May
    • David: May
    • Melanie: July
    • Chris: 2024
    • Chef: 2025
    • [Melanie was correct! Technically so was Chris]
  • David: Who will win the election?
    • Adrian: Labour
    • Louse: Labour
    • AndyC: Keir
    • David: Labour
    • Melanie: Labour
    • Chris: Green
    • Chef: Labour
    • [No great surprise here: yes, Chris was very drunk by this point]
  • Adrian: Does the Gaza war spread to Egypt?
    • Adrian: Yes, in June
    • Louise: No, to Lebanon maybe
    • AndyC: Both sides sign up to dual state
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Chris: “No, not before the end of January thank you”
    • Chef: Not Egypt, Syria
    • [It has not so far. Lebanon, yes, so Louise wins this one]
  • Melanie: How many states will ban Trump from standing?
    • Adrian: 5
    • Louise: 4
    • AndyC: 4
    • David: 3
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chris: 79
    • Chef: Effectively none – supreme court will overrule the bans
    • [I think Chef is closest to being right here. Chris is very much the most wrong]
  • Louise: Will there be at least one riot in the UK linked to the cost of living crisis?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No, it’ll be something else
    • Chris: “There is no cost of living crisis, everyone is rich”
    • Chef: No (too many strikes for people to get there)
    • [Riots, yes; not exactly related to the cost of living though. Melanie wins?]
  • Adrian: Who is the next US president?
    • Adrian: Michelle Obama
    • Louise: Trump
    • AndyC: Kanye West
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Elon Musk
    • Chris: Michael J Fox
    • Chef: Biden
    • [Sigh. Louise and David were correct]
  • Melanie: Who will be the most famous/damaging person to appear on the Epstein list?
    • Adrian: Barack Obama
    • Louise: Samuel L Jackson
    • AndyC: Farage
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Tom Hanks
    • Chris: Russell Brand, Bernard Cribbins
    • Chef: Bill Clinton
    • [The list includes Bill Clinton and Donald Trump: points for David and Chef]
  • Celebrity deaths
    • Adrian: The Queen, Nigel Farage
    • Louise: Joe Biden, David Attenborough
    • AndyC: Jimmy Carr
    • David: Prince Andrew, Neil Kinnock
    • Melanie: Fergie, DIonne Warwick
    • Chris: Harrison Ford
    • Chef: A Beatle, a Rolling Stone
    • [No points for anyone]

Stay tuned for 2025.

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Avaragado and friends predict 2024

Slightly depleted by Covid, which apparently no longer exists, a hardy group of six gathered at the traditional venue to celebrate the year end and commiserate the year start.

The year of oh lord 2023 is what we now must call “relatively stable,” in that the UK changed neither monarch nor prime minister and we were not confined to our homes by law (exceptions apply, eg partying while Tory).

The oncoming storm of 2024 promises much in the way of little. In a similar vein, here are the group’s predictions… please note that as is traditional, Chris participated alcoholically.

STOP PRESS: Chef has supplied his Covid-riddled predictions by sterilised means, so I’ve added them.

Predictions

  • Randoms:
    • AndyC: Virgin Galactic goes completely bust “and stops”
    • Chris: “Humanity lands on the moon before the end of 2024”
  • David: When will the general election be?
    • Adrian: June
    • Louise: June
    • AndyC: May
    • David: May
    • Melanie: July
    • Chris: 2024
    • Chef: 2025
  • David: Who will win the election?
    • Adrian: Labour
    • Louse: Labour
    • AndyC: Keir
    • David: Labour
    • Melanie: Labour
    • Chris: Green
    • Chef: Labour
  • Adrian: Does the Gaza war spread to Egypt?
    • Adrian: Yes, in June
    • Louise: No, to Lebanon maybe
    • AndyC: Both sides sign up to dual state
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Chris: “No, not before the end of January thank you”
    • Chef: Not Egypt, Syria
  • Melanie: How many states will ban Trump from standing?
    • Adrian: 5
    • Louise: 4
    • AndyC: 4
    • David: 3
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chris: 79
    • Chef: Effectively none – supreme court will overrule the bans
  • Louise: Will there be at least one riot in the UK linked to the cost of living crisis?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No, it’ll be something else
    • Chris: “There is no cost of living crisis, everyone is rich”
    • Chef: No (too many strikes for people to get there)
  • Adrian: Who is the next US president?
    • Adrian: Michelle Obama
    • Louise: Trump
    • AndyC: Kanye West
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Elon Musk
    • Chris: Michael J Fox
    • Chef: Biden
  • Melanie: Who will be the most famous/damaging person to appear on the Epstein list?
    • Adrian: Barack Obama
    • Louise: Samuel L Jackson
    • AndyC: Farage
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Tom Hanks
    • Chris: Russell Brand, Bernard Cribbins
    • Chef: Bill Clinton
  • Celebrity deaths
    • Adrian: The Queen, Nigel Farage
    • Louise: Joe Biden, David Attenborough
    • AndyC: Jimmy Carr
    • David: Prince Andrew, Neil Kinnock
    • Melanie: Fergie, DIonne Warwick
    • Chris: Harrison Ford
    • Chef: A Beatle, a Rolling Stone

See you next year!

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Avaragado’s 2023 predictions – results

Oh, you again. I write after the sun has set on another year but has not yet risen on the new, which is a very long way of saying it’s 6pm on NYE. And it’s just late enough that I’m confident a bunch of our rubbish predictions a year ago won’t suddenly come true in the last gasp. There’s always a chance of a celebrity death, I suppose.

Here now are the results, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
    • [China did not, thankfully]
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Putin did not, sadly]
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
    • [According to Wikipedia: Arctic Monkeys, Guns N’ Roses, Elton John. Chris wins!]
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
    • [It did, and is currently at its peak of 5.25%]
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
    • [He didn’t.]
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
    • [They didn’t, for no reason anyone can fathom except the standard Tories innit]
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
    • [Not so far. None of us predicted Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation]
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Amazingly, it’s not going to happen]
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy
    • [Finally, Kissinger died]

Stay tuned for 2024.

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Ten years later

My Google Assistant had an interesting message for me this morning. I apologise for the aspect ratio; if it helps, please rotate your head.

It seems young, thrusting Past Me left a reminder for old, busting Present Me, directing me to a blog post. This blog post, in fact, posted ten years ago today.

Here’s the salient quote, and what made me leave the reminder to myself:

I’ve said this many times, and it’s truer than ever. The test of any proposed new law should not be how it is intended to be used today, nor how the next government or the next set of police commissioners might decide to interpret it. It’s about the government and the police that come after them. The ones we cannot know, living in a world we cannot know, with pressures and technologies and enemies and realities we cannot know.

The post ends with this:

Who will be prime minister on August 20, 2023? Cameron? Miliband? The other Miliband? Johnson? Farage? Griffin?

It seems quaint, naive almost, to think that there was a chance Cameron would still be PM today. Cameron! Posh PR man, pig man, Brexit man, austerity man. In the last ten years we’ve had “Brexit means Brexit” May, father-of-n Johnson, that one who killed the queen and the economy (I had to think: Truss, who was swapped at birth with a deer in some headlights), and now we’re on Sunak, currently fresh from a $1200-per-head meal at Disneyland and richer than the King. Sunak, who – don’t forget – lost to a candidate so poorly equipped for office she was unceremoniously dumped after 45 days.

Sunak wasn’t even an MP ten years ago. In 2013, he was director of an investment firm, coincidentally I’m sure owned by his father-in-law. And neither was Keir Starmer, now leader of the Labour Party, then Director of Public Prosecutions.

Since 2013 we’ve also had Corbyn, Trump, and Brexit, and Ukraine, and we almost won a couple of football things, and Liverpool hosted Eurovision, and we had Covid.

We still have Covid.

And Sunak has been curtailing the right to protest, and pushing laws about police surveillance of private communications, and leads a government that hates immigrants and trans people, and happily allows corporations to pollute the rivers and seas, and pretends it cares about addressing climate change while continuing to subsidise and push fossil fuels.

The ones we cannot know, living in a world we cannot know, with pressures and technologies and enemies and realities we cannot know

Where will we be in another ten years?

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Harangued over a tannoy

Sometimes you have an app experience that makes you wonder: has anyone involved, anyone at all, ever thought about how the app is used in practice?

Or worse: they have, and they understand it’s bad, but other factors have won?

I just put petrol in my car. I have a hybrid now and I’m semi-smug about it but I do still need dinosaur juice occasionally. I’ve been putting petrol in cars for some decades now. I know the process. I’ve got the hang of it. Nozzle off hook into hole. Wait for the pump to whirr. Squeeze until tank full or 1p over desired spend. Replace nozzle. Pay. Drive away.

But not today.

Nozzle off hook into hole. Wait for the pump to come on. It doesn’t. It’s then that I see the laminated sign sellotaped just under the LCD pricing: you must use the Shell app to pay for petrol at this pump.

No other pumps available. I do not have this app, because contrary to rumour I do not install every app.

I install the Shell app and start it. I get a standard first-run experience for apps like this: swipe through the exciting features this app offers (yes but can I just buy some petrol?), perhaps you might consider enabling notifications so we can contact you about special offers (yes but how do I pay for petrol?), tell us your first and last name (what if it was raining and I was in a hurry?), please create an account with us and be sure to choose a password with at least one upper case letter, one lower case letter, one number, and one symbol (what if I was 80?), and please select your payment method (OK now can I pay for petrol?), oh and you must check your email to confirm your address and activate your account.

I work in the computer industry. I’m a software architect focusing on customer experience in the broadest sense. I’ve been installing apps like this for 15 years. I know roughly what I’m doing. I’m not an 80-year-old retired person who uses a smartphone to WhatsApp her family, trying to do this in the dark in the rain without her right glasses.

I reach the “confirm your email address” stage when the boy behind the counter is on the tannoy saying “Man at pump 6, <garbled>”.

At this stage, I must confess, I’m starting to simmer. I point to my phone and shout “I’m installing the app”. More <garbled>.

I go to the booth. I stride purposefully. They tell me if I’m having trouble I can move to a different pump, and can I please put the nozzle back on the hook anyway. Because it turns out that when you use the app you must pay before you lift the nozzle. I do not know this because I have yet to reach that part of the onboarding experience that tells me how I pay for petrol, which I guarantee is the only thing I will ever want to do with this app.

I return to my car. Replace the nozzle. Finish setting up the app. From the home screen full of things unrelated to buying petrol, I find the button to press to buy petrol. I locate my petrol station and type in the pump number. I select an amount to pay, which confuses me because I actually want “however much to fill up my tank”, and then see the small print that says it’s a maximum.

I fill up my tank and drive away.

OK: ignoring the onboarding faff, and the stupid app home screen, it’s easy.

But you can’t ignore the onboarding faff. You can’t ignore the app home screen.

Back to my original question: how is the app actually used in practice?

Primary goal of the user: put petrol in tank, possibly filling it up.

That’s it. That should be the focus of the app.

When do people install the app? Typically in situations like mine: they’re forced to do so. Nobody sitting on their sofa on a Saturday night thinks, “Oh, let me just install the Shell app for the next time I need to put petrol in my car.”

The very first screen you see when running the app for the first time should have a big button that says “I just want to fill up and pay now”. When you press it, you should get clear instructions, starting with: make sure the nozzle is on the hook. It should set up payment as part of this process. It should end with reassurance that you can just drive away at the end.

At no point does it need your name, email address, a secure password, or any of that. Want is not the same as need.

Here’s the home screen of the Shell app for me right now:

Stop downplaying the feature that enables the user’s primary goal: the narrow blue box. That should be at the top, big and bold. The wording’s fine. I’d make it fill the home screen, with tabs for everything else.

I literally could not care less about how many more visits I need to make to unlock some unspecified “fuel reward”. What is it, some money off a tank? If you want an incentive for me to use Shell every time, then drop your prices for every visit, to the same amount as the reward.

STOP GAMIFYING STUFF.

What are the user’s goals? Fill up and drive off. Solve that problem and get out of my way.

Of course the app’s product managers will say: but we want to present a smorgasbord of incredible offers available to our users, so we’ll need to collect their details for definitely-non-spamming purposes. Fine. If they’re genuinely good offers, people will sign up.

I’ve just been forced against my will to give you my contact details so I can put petrol in my car, which is a service you previously offered without such a requirement. What do I get in return? 10% off a specific hot chocolate at participating stations? That does not seem a fair exchange.

I eagerly await an email from my new friends at Shell enticing me to visit again to sample their hot chocolate, as if a Shell garage or any garage should be one of my primary lifestyle destinations. I’m over 50, I already have John Lewis.

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Avaragado and friends predict 2023

Well, 2022 was a year, wasn’t it? Two monarchs and about thirty-seven prime ministers. Still we crumble on, watching those Brexit benefits pile up on street corners.

On New Year’s Eve the usual suspects plus special guests gathered at the Town and Gown as usual to drink away the afternoon and rummage for predictions for the year ahead. Here we are, already two bottles to the wind:

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Apologies to those nominated. Some of them at least.

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Avaragado’s 2022 predictions – results

And so the Earth completes another ellipse around the Sun, and New Year’s Day arrives along with its traditions: the concert from Vienna with its polkas and waltzes, the wondering which shops will be open, and the results of last year’s predictions.

Here they are again, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Chef: Still Boris Johnson this time next year?
    • Chef: yes
    • Melanie: nope, he’ll be gone by March
    • David: no, July
    • [I believe Chris was too far gone to submit an opinion for this one. Melanie and I were both right – and Johnson did announce his resignation in July, although he stayed PM until September. None of us foresaw the ensuing chaos of Truss]
  • Chris wanted it on record for some reason that the four of us “will go out to eat at a vegan restaurant in 2022”
    • [Yes, we did]
  • David: Will the dear old queen make it to 2023?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • David: yes
    • Chef: no, she’ll pop off in October
    • [Chef was almost spot on! She died in September]
  • Chef thinks the James Webb Space Telescope deployment will fail in some way and it’ll be toast
    • [Chef was wrong. It’s fine, and producing amazing images]
  • Chris: Will ARM be bought by Nvidia?
    • Chris: yes, September
    • Melanie: yes, August
    • David: yes, July
    • Chef: yes, June
    • [None of us got this right. The takeover was abandoned]
  • Chris: Will WH Smith still exist on the high street?
    • Chris: no
    • Melanie: no
    • David: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • [No idea why we cared about WH Smith enough to predict its future. It still exists, so Chef and I are both right]
  • Melanie: Will Adrian have a job?
    • Consensus: nope
    • [Correct]
  • Melanie: Will Prince Andrew lose that civil case against him?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • David: no
    • Chef: yes
    • [Technically he settled, deciding to pay millions to someone he claimed he’d never met. Seems legit]
  • David: What will be the name of the most recent major Covid variant?
    • Chris: Ting-tong
    • Melanie: Mut (Egyptian hieroglyph, Vulture)
    • David: Psi
    • Chef: Alpha-gamma
    • [It still seems to be Omicron]

In a bit: our predictions for 2023.

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