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Avaragado’s 2017 predictions

I very nearly didn’t bother this year. All my usual flim-flammery aside, like many I’m genuinely pessimistic about the future, and I’m sure I don’t need to explain why. Oddly, and happily, when I decided to conjure up some predictions from somewhere and got on with it, I found my mood lifting a notch or two.

Dunkirk spirit. Keep buggering on. Listen very carefully, I shall say zis only once. You’ve gotta laugh, haven’t you? World’s gone mad.

Here we are, then: predictions for 2017. I’m trying to be optimistic.

News

  1. Civilisation does not end in a nuclear fireball or similar Trump-triggered catastrophe.
  2. 2017 is not the warmest year globally on record, causing morons to assert that climate change isn’t happening, etc.
  3. Mike Pence becomes Acting President after invoking Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution with the help of his chums in Congress. (Pedants: under this clause, Trump would remain president but have no powers.)
  4. Trump resigns as president. (Pedants: see above as to why this is not the same prediction as that.)
  5. Self-inflated gaffe balloon Boris Johnson loses his job as foreign secretary.
  6. Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency and oh god will this never end.

Sport

  1. Olympics! Los Angeles is awarded the 2024 summer games.
  2. Formula One! Lewis Hamilton wins the World Drivers’ Championship.
  3. Cricket! India win the ICC Champions Trophy.
  4. Ladygolf! Europe win the Solheim Cup.
  5. Soggy oars! Cambridge win the women’s university boat race.
  6. Sandy balls! Portugal win the men’s FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup. Yes it’s a real thing.

Science and technology

  1. Samsung drops the 3.5mm headphone jack from at least some of its phones.
  2. The Nobel prize for physics is awarded for the confirmation of the existence of gravitational waves.
  3. A self-driving Uber kills someone. (Pedants: when the software is in charge, whether or not there is a person “supervising” in the driver’s seat.)
  4. Google buys Slack.
  5. Apple’s next major release of the iPad (probably called iPad Pro 2) includes both 3D Touch and a haptic engine that tries to make typing on a screen feel more like typing on a keyboard.
  6. A major ISP is hacked and the internet browsing habits of its users are published online.

Entertainment

  1. Oscar for Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Fences.
  2. Oscar for Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Jackie.
  3. Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Heisserer, Arrival.
  4. Oscar for Best Picture: Fences.
  5. Channel 4 announces that the Great British Bake Off will be hosted by Jo Brand.
  6. In the second Fantastic Beasts film, the role of Dumbledore will be played by Hugh Laurie.

Celebrity somethingwatch

This year I’m predicting different things for different people.

  1. living: Betty White, still going strong at the end of 2017.
  2. out of the closet: Cristiano Ronaldo, probably via accidental Instagram.
  3. hired: Brooklyn Beckham, as a magazine photographer or similar.
  4. fired: Jack Dorsey, as CEO of Twitter and/or Stripe.
  5. retired: John Humphrys, as presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
  6. expired: Henry Kissinger, please and thank you.

Guest submissions

Attendees of the ceremonial lunch that heralds these predictions were invited to suggest their own. By this stage, some drink had been taken.

  1. Andy H – Celebrity deathwatch: David Attenborough.
  2. Andy C –  the UK does not invoke Article 50.
  3. Andy C – Jeremy Corbyn is prime minister.
  4. Andy C – Celebrity deathwatch: Harry Styles.
  5. Andrew M – Scotland votes to leave the UK.
  6. Andrew M – Celebrity deathwatch: Princess Anne.
  7. Chris W – Some chunk of wall of some kind is built between Mexico and the US.
  8. Chris W – Celebrity deathwatch: Nicholas Lyndhurst.

Join us this time next year, as we fend off mutant humans and chimps on horseback from the shattered remains of the internet, to learn how pessimistic we should’ve been instead.

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Avaragado’s 2016 predictions – results

Well.

That was a year.

Six hours from 2017 in glorious GMT, and we’re all still refreshing our browsers to see which of the dwindling band of celebs are extraordinarily keen to avoid the Hootenanny. As the fireworks tick west, it’s time to review my predictions for 2016.

The well-lubricated Chris Walsh adjudicated, as ever, and his comments are in square brackets.

News

  1. In the thrilling Euro referendum that I hope to god happens in 2016 so we don’t have to suffer another whole year of it, the tedious British public votes 53% to 47% (±1%) to remain in the EU. [51.9% to 48.1% to LEAVE – 0pt]
  2. Bacon-worrier David Cameron resigns as prime minister. [1pt]
  3. Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election. [Optimism – I remember that! 0pt]
  4. 2016 is the warmest year globally on record. [“2016 will very likely be the hottest year on record and a new high for the third year in a row, according to the UN” – 1pt]
  5. The Bank of England leaves interest rates at 0.5% all year. [Down to 0.25% – 0pt]
  6. The price of oil doesn’t go above $50 a barrel all year. [The current price of WTI crude oil as of December 19, 2016 is $51.72 per barrel. – 0pt]

Sport

  1. In the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Team GB win 20±2 gold medals in total. [27 – 0pt]
  2. In the Euro 2016 football championships, England finish in the top 4. [Didn’t make it to quarter finals – 0pt]
  3. Oxford win the men’s University Boat Race. [Cambridge! – 0pt]
  4. HRH Prince Ali Al Hussein is elected the next president of FIFA. [Gianni Infantino – 0pt]
  5. Wales win the Rugby Union Six Nations. [England – 0pt]
  6. Europe retain the Ryder Cup. [USA – 0pt]

Science and technology

  1. The iPhone 7 (pedants: or whatever Apple calls the next major iPhone revision) has no 3.5mm headphone jack. [True! – 1pt]
  2. Apple releases a Mac with an A-branded (ARM, not Intel) processor. [Not yet – 0pt]
  3. Google buys Signal. [Don’t think so… – 0pt]
  4. A major security breach at the NHS leaks hundreds of thousands of patient details. [“An NHS trust has been fined £180,000 after a sexual health facility in central London accidentally leaked the personal details of 780 HIV clinic attendees by email.” … out by several factors of 10 – 0pt]
  5. Physicists confirm the first evidence for gravitational waves. [1pt]
  6. An out-of-control drone causes a major incident (eg a collision with an aircraft). [“Drone hits British Airways plane as it prepares to land at Heathrow” – 18th April 2016. Not sure that counts as a major incident, but the point is yours – 1pt]

Entertainment

  1. To save money, the BBC decides to close BBC Four. [Still there – 0pt]
  2. Peter Capaldi announces he is to leave Doctor Who. [Still there – 0pt]
  3. Oscar for Best Picture: The Revenant. [1pt]
  4. Oscar for Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian. [Alejandro González Iñárritu, Revenant – 0pt]
  5. Oscar for Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. [Leonardo Di Caprio, Revenant – 0pt]
  6. Oscar for Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room. [1pt]

You’re celebrity fired

  1. Piers Morgan leaves Good Morning Britain. [Still there – 0pt]
  2. Marissa Meyer leaves Yahoo. [Still there – 0pt]
  3. Louis van Gaal leaves Manchester United. [1pt]
  4. Chris Evans (not that one) leaves the role of Editor of the Daily Telegraph. [Still there – 0pt]
  5. Philip Hammond leaves the role of Foreign Secretary. [Now Chancellor … 1pt]
  6. Sir Lord Alan Sugar leaves The Apprentice. [Still there – 0pt]

[2016 … a turbulent year for sure, and now confirmed as utterly unpredictable. What a year to abandon the “Celebrity Deathwatch” round though!  9 out of a possible 30, which gives a meagre (if nicely round) 30%.]

Coming soon: oh god, what next?

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Avaragado’s 2016 predictions

Hello again. Pull up a pixel. Dismantle that podcast. Relax your weary mince pie repository. Pay heed, oh gentle reader, for Avaragado has rattled his brain to wiggle out the earwax of foretelling and is pleased to interpret the oily runes ambiguously below.

Those of you familiar with this annual nonsense will spot a new category. I’ve retired Celebrity Deathwatch as the predictions started to come true and, quite frankly, The Medusa Touch still gives me the shivers (WHIP PAN to polystyrene rubble falling onto gurning worshippers). In its place, You’re Celebrity Fired.

Here they all are. Perhaps the rain will have stopped by this time next year. Perhaps.

News

  1. In the thrilling Euro referendum that I hope to god happens in 2016 so we don’t have to suffer another whole year of it, the tedious British public votes 53% to 47% (±1%) to remain in the EU.
  2. Bacon-worrier David Cameron resigns as prime minister.
  3. Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election.
  4. 2016 is the warmest year globally on record.
  5. The Bank of England leaves interest rates at 0.5% all year.
  6. The price of oil doesn’t go above $50 a barrel all year.

Sport

  1. In the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Team GB win 20±2 gold medals in total.
  2. In the Euro 2016 football championships, England finish in the top 4.
  3. Oxford win the men’s University Boat Race.
  4. HRH Prince Ali Al Hussein is elected the next president of FIFA.
  5. Wales win the Rugby Union Six Nations.
  6. Europe retain the Ryder Cup.

Science and technology

  1. The iPhone 7 (pedants: or whatever Apple calls the next major iPhone revision) has no 3.5mm headphone jack.
  2. Apple releases a Mac with an A-branded (ARM, not Intel) processor.
  3. Google buys Signal.
  4. A major security breach at the NHS leaks hundreds of thousands of patient details.
  5. Physicists confirm the first evidence for gravitational waves.
  6. An out-of-control drone causes a major incident (eg a collision with an aircraft).

Entertainment

  1. To save money, the BBC decides to close BBC Four.
  2. Peter Capaldi announces he is to leave Doctor Who.
  3. Oscar for Best Picture: The Revenant.
  4. Oscar for Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian.
  5. Oscar for Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl.
  6. Oscar for Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room.

You’re celebrity fired

  1. Piers Morgan leaves Good Morning Britain.
  2. Marissa Meyer leaves Yahoo.
  3. Louis van Gaal leaves Manchester United.
  4. Chris Evans (not that one) leaves the role of Editor of the Daily Telegraph.
  5. Philip Hammond leaves the role of Foreign Secretary.
  6. Sir Lord Alan Sugar leaves The Apprentice.

And that, my friends, is that. I wonder if I’ll post anything else on this blog before next year’s results?

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Avaragado’s 2015 predictions – results

A small but perfectly formed cadre of New Year’s Eve lunchers attended B Bar, AKA Baroosh, today to hear the results of my predictions for the year now blowing damply into the North Sea.

As ever, the tall but perfectly drunk Chris Walsh adjudicated. A double-check showed he gave me a point more than I deserved, which I’ve corrected. Commentary etc in square brackets.

News

  • ✗ There is more than one UK general election.
  • ✗ After one of the general elections, speaker John Bercow is deposed.
  • ✗ The royal child-beast is of the girl persuasion, and called Elizabeth. [Charlotte Elizabeth Diana]
  • ✓ Hillary Clinton confirms she will run for US President.
  • ✗ Kim Jong Un is deposed as leader of North Korea.
  • ✗ The record for the highest temperature in the UK is broken.

[Score: 1/6]

Sport

  • ✗ Sepp Blatter is not re-elected as president of FIFA. [Re-elected, but then suspended]
  • ✓ Chelsea win the English Premier League.
  • ✗ Australia retain the Ashes. [Chris marked this one right, but it wasn’t]
  • ✗ Germany win the women’s football World Cup in Canada. [USA]
  • ✓ Oxford wins the University Boat Race, again.
  • ✗ Cyprus comes top of the medal table in the keenly anticipated Games of the Small States of Europe in Reykjavik. [Iceland]

[Score: 2/6]

Science and technology

  • ✗ Apple releases a MacBook Air with a retina display.
  • ✗ The Dawn spacecraft discovers ice volcanoes on the surface of the dwarf planet Ceres.
  • ✓ The probe Philae on the surface of comet 67P emerges from hibernation sufficiently to send useful scientific data.
  • ✗ Microsoft buys Fitbit. [IPO]
  • ✓ Dick Costolo leaves his position as CEO of Twitter.
  • ✗ YouTube users upload over 500 hours of video per minute on average. [Who knows?]

[Score: 2/6]

Entertainment

  • ✗ Best Actor Oscar: Michael Keaton, Birdman. [Eddie Redmayne]
  • ✓ Best Actress Oscar: Julianne Moore, Still Alice.
  • ✓ Best Picture Oscar: Birdman.
  • ✗ Best Director Oscar: Richard Linklater, Boyhood. [Birdman]
  • ✓ Best Visual Effects Oscar: Interstellar.
  • ✗ The BBC says BBC 4 will follow BBC 3 and move online.

[Score: 3/6]

Celebrity deathwatch

  • ✗ Dodgy FIFA boss before the other dodgy FIFA boss, João Havelange (98)
  • ✓ Avenger before the other Avengers, actor Patrick Macnee (92)
  • ✓ Dracula, Scaramanga, Saruman, Dooku, actor Christopher Lee (92)
  • ✗ I’ve met him you know, comics elder Stan Lee (92)
  • ✗ President Bush before the other President Bush, George HW Bush (90)
  • ✓ Spock before the other Spock, actor Leonard Nimoy (82)
  • ✗ Run out, umpire Dickie Bird (81)
  • ✗ War criminal, ex-veep Dick Cheney (73)
  • ✗ Floating like an ex-butterfly, stinging like an ex-bee, boxer Muhammad Ali (72)

[Score: 3/9]

[Total score: 11/33 = 33% – up on last years 22%, but some way short of 2013’s 50%!]

Stay tuned to this bat-channel for Avaragado’s predictions for 2016.

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Avaragado’s 2015 predictions

And here they are: a list of things almost certainly not going to happen in 2015. Feel free to pop down the betting shop as soon as it opens to chuck your savings at the opposite of everything below. Don’t forget to return this time next year to gloat with your millions.

News

  1. There is more than one UK general election.
  2. After one of the general elections, speaker John Bercow is deposed.
  3. The royal child-beast is of the girl persuasion, and called Elizabeth.
  4. Hillary Clinton confirms she will run for US President.
  5. Kim Jong Un is deposed as leader of North Korea.
  6. The record for the highest temperature in the UK is broken.

Sport

  1. Sepp Blatter is not re-elected as president of FIFA.
  2. Chelsea win the English Premier League.
  3. Australia retain the Ashes.
  4. Germany win the women’s football World Cup in Canada.
  5. Oxford wins the University Boat Race, again.
  6. Cyprus comes top of the medal table in the keenly anticipated Games of the Small States of Europe in Reykjavik.

Science and technology

  1. Apple releases a MacBook Air with a retina display.
  2. The Dawn spacecraft discovers ice volcanoes on the surface of the dwarf planet Ceres.
  3. The probe Philae on the surface of comet 67P emerges from hibernation sufficiently to send useful scientific data.
  4. Microsoft buys Fitbit.
  5. Dick Costolo leaves his position as CEO of Twitter.
  6. YouTube users upload over 500 hours of video per minute on average.

Entertainment

  1. Best Actor Oscar: Michael Keaton, Birdman.
  2. Best Actress Oscar: Julianne Moore, Still Alice.
  3. Best Picture Oscar: Birdman.
  4. Best Director Oscar: Richard Linklater, Boyhood.
  5. Best Visual Effects Oscar: Interstellar.
  6. The BBC says BBC 4 will follow BBC 3 and move online.

Celebrity deathwatch

  1. Dodgy FIFA boss before the other dodgy FIFA boss, João Havelange (98)
  2. Avenger before the other Avengers, actor Patrick Macnee (92)
  3. Dracula, Scaramanga, Saruman, Dooku, actor Christopher Lee (92)
  4. I’ve met him you know, comics elder Stan Lee (92)
  5. President Bush before the other President Bush, George HW Bush (90)
  6. Spock before the other Spock, actor Leonard Nimoy (82)
  7. Run out, umpire Dickie Bird (81)
  8. War criminal, ex-veep Dick Cheney (73)
  9. Floating like an ex-butterfly, stinging like an ex-bee, boxer Muhammad Ali (72)

Happy New Year!

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Avaragado’s 2014 predictions – results

Good grief, is it that time again? I’ve barely posted anything on my blog this year. Still, at today’s regular New Year’s Eve lunch official adjudicator Chris Walsh revealed just how appallingly inaccurate my 2014 predictions were. Here are the gory details – commentary etc in square brackets.

News

  1. ✓ In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No. [Correct!]
  2. ✗ Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden. [Nope: still in Russia.]
  3. ✗ The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader. [Nope.]
  4. ✓ UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. [Yes, considering the parties separately, not the combined total of the other parties.]
  5. ✗ An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event. [Couldn’t find anything.]
  6. ✗ Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail. [Nope.]
  7. ✗ More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather. [Thought expressbingo.org.uk would have the answer, but it seems to stop on 5th Feb 2014. www.thepaperboy.com has front pages going back to September 2014. Taking all front pages from those sites, 22 out of 96 have weather-related headlines, which is 23%. Extrapolating: nope.]

[Score: 2/7]

Sport

  1. ½ Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage. [Chris ignored the bit about England and awarded no points. David thinks he deserves half a point.]
  2. ✗ Liverpool win the FA Premier League. [Manchester City.]
  3. ✗ Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi. [1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze.]
  4. ✗ Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon. [Lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-final.]
  5. ✗ Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament. [Ireland.]
  6. ✗ Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series. [Third, behind Javier Gomez and Mario Mola.]

[Score: 0.5/6]

Science and technology

  1. ✓ Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella. [Yes, on February 4.]
  2. ✗ The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris. [Nope.]
  3. ✗ Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device. [Nope.]
  4. ✗ The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication. [Nope: Blue LEDs]
  5. ✗ Google buys Oculus VR. [In March, Facebook agreed to acquire Oculus VR.]
  6. ✗ Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet. [Don’t think so.]

[Score: 1/6]

Entertainment

  1. ✓ Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave. [Yes.]
  2. ✗ Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave. [Nope: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club]
  3. ✗ Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks. [Nope: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Emma Thompson wasn’t even nominated.]
  4. ✓ Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing. [Yep.]
  5. ✓ The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army). [A film of Dad’s Army is in production, unrelated to the BBC, but the BBC has broadcast Still Open All Hours, based on the old sitcom Open All Hours.]
  6. ½ In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV. [Some TOWIE woman received various bruises. Stretching the definitions of both “celebrity” and “nasty”: half a point.]

[Score: 3.5/6]

Celebrity deathwatch

  1. ✗ His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
  2. ✗ Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
  3. ✗ Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
  4. ✓ Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87 [Died September 12th]
  5. ✗ Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
  6. ✗ Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
  7. ✗ Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
  8. ✗ Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
  9. ✗ Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
  10. ✗ Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
  11. ✗ Wayward ex-gurner and Gazza Paul Gascoigne, 46
  12. ✗ Apprentice self-firing rent-a-gob Katie Hopkins, 38

[Score: 1/12]

[Total score: 8/37]

Not as good as previous years: a dismal 22%. Overall, the predictions were far too bold. But some of them were very close, in particular the Oculus VR purchase. Ah well.

Coming soon: 2015. And also, by coincidence, my predictions for 2015.

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Avaragado’s 2014 predictions

Here they are: the 2014 predictions literally everyone hasn’t been waiting for. Please return regularly to check my progress and coincidentally bump the readership stats on my blog to make me feel better.

News

  1. In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No.
  2. Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden.
  3. The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader.
  4. UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems.
  5. An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event.
  6. Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail.
  7. More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather.

Sport

  1. Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage.
  2. Liverpool win the FA Premier League.
  3. Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
  4. Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon.
  5. Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament.
  6. Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series.

Science and technology

  1. Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella.
  2. The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris.
  3. Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device.
  4. The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication.
  5. Google buys Oculus VR.
  6. Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet.

Entertainment

  1. Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave.
  2. Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave.
  3. Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks.
  4. Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing.
  5. The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army).
  6. In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV.

Celebrity deathwatch

  1. His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
  2. Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
  3. Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
  4. Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87
  5. Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
  6. Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
  7. Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
  8. Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
  9. Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
  10. Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
  11. Wayward ex-gurner and Gazza Paul Gascoigne, 46
  12. Apprentice self-firing rent-a-gob Katie Hopkins, 38

Based on the pattern of previous years I’m expecting to get about 40% right. Join me this time next year to find out whether I’ve got that prediction wrong too.

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