At yesterday’s lunch I attempted another set of group predictions for 2020, with… mixed results. Perhaps – and you may well argue that I should have learned this lesson by now – leaving it until Chris and Chef were a few fathoms into their second bottle was a mistake.
However, that was last decade, back when we still had hope, before trousers were currency and before the Denunciation of the Courgette. Now we must push on, push on, into our 4K teal and orange future.
Our collective (hic) vision for 2020 follows:
Politics
Who will be the leader of the main UK political parties (Con, Lab, LD, SNP) on December 25, 2020?
Melanie: Boris Johnson, Daniel Zeichner, Layla Moran, Nicola Sturgeon
Chris: Boris Johnson, Billy Bragg, Caroline Flack, Jimmy McSporran
Chef: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Jo Swinson, Nicola Sturgeon
Andy H: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey, Nicola Sturgeon
Andy C: Boris Johnson, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Ed Davey, Nicola Sturgeon
David: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey, Nicola Sturgeon
Brexit! Will the UK extend the transition period beyond December 2020? If so, until when? If not, will the transition end with or without a deal?
Melanie: yes, until a table is booked at Milliways
Chris: yes, until the end of time
Chef: no, and there’ll be no deal
Andy H: yes, for three months
Andy C: yes, until end of January 2021
David: yes, until end of 2021
Will Scotland have an independence referendum in 2020? If so, what’s the result?
Melanie: no; it’ll be talked about, but that’s it
Chris: yes; no score after extra time
Chef: no
Andy H: no
Andy C: no
David: no; it’ll be scheduled for 2021
Who will be the Democrat nominee against Trump in the November 2020 election, and what will be the result of that election?
Melanie: RBG; Democrat win
Chris: The Littlest Hobo; Trump win
Chef: Elizabeth Warren; Trump win
Andy H: Elizabeth Warren; Trump win
Andy C: Hillary Clinton; Trump win
David: want Elizabeth Warren (score me on this one), fear Joe Biden; Democrat win
Entertainment
How many Oscar nominations will Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker receive? And how many wins? Guess categories for bonus points.
Melanie: 4, 1, VFX
Chris: 3, 3, Best lesbian kiss not shown in Shanghai
Chef: 2, 0
Andy H: 2, 0, VFX
Andy C: 4, 0
David: 5, 2, VFX
Which country will come first at Eurovision 2020? And where will the UK finish?
Melanie: Putin; bottom
Chris: Central African Republic; 30th
Chef: Norway; 2nd from bottom
Andy H: Denmark; bottom
Andy C: Ireland; bottom
David: Australia; 18th
Who will be announced, if anyone, as the next James Bond?
Melanie: Robert Pattinson
Chris: Hermione Granger
Chef: Daniel Radcliffe
Andy H: no announcement
Andy C: Jodie Comer
David: no announcement
What will be the highest audience for an episode of Doctor Who series 12?
Melanie: 8.7m
Chris: too drunk to answer
Chef: too drunk to answer
Andy H: 8m
Andy C: 9.6m
David: 8.5m
How many Razzies will the Cats movie receive?
Melanie: 5
Chris: too drunk to answer
Chef: too drunk to answer
Andy H: 3
Andy C: 4
David: 5
Sport
How many gold/silver/bronze medals will Team GB win at the Summer Olympics in Tokyo?
Melanie: 73 total
Chris: 69 bronze
Chef: 24 gold, 36 silver, 12 bronze
Andy H: 50 total
Andy C: 65 total
David: 60 total
There you have it, and may god have mercy on our souls.
I’m not entirely sure why I bother, but here we are again.
At our semi-annual New Year’s Eve lunch yesterday, it emerged that I was the only one to remember our group predictions from the last gasp of 2018. While Chef and Chris glugged the wine, I dug out the predictions and scored us all.
It’s fascinating, I tell you. Here are the results.
One or other
The upcoming Sussex youngling. Which flavour: M, F or other?
Actual: M
❌ Chris: F (and ginger)
✅ Melanie: M
✅ Chef: M
❌ David: F
Ultima Thule, to be visited by New Horizons mere hours after I post. What will it turn out to be: contact binary, close binary, or other?
Actual: contact binary
❌ Chris: other – non-binary
❌ Melanie: close binary
✅ Chef: contact binary
✅ David: contact binary
The Crystal Maze, Richard Ayoade edition. Axed or not?
Actual: not
❌ Chris: axed
❌ Melanie: axed
❌ Chef: axed
❌ David: axed
Yes or no, plus
Will there be a second referendum on Brexit? If there is, who wins?
Actual: no
✅ Chris: no (if there is, remain wins)
✅ Melanie: no (dunno)
✅ Chef: no (remain)
✅ David: no (remain)
Will there be a general election? If there is, who wins?
Actual: yes (Tories)
❌❌ Chris: no (DUP) (yes, he’d had a few glasses of wine by now)
❌❌ Melanie: no (hung)
✅❌ Chef: yes (hung)
✅❌ David: yes (hung)
Will Brexit happen on March 29th? (I should’ve asked about the type of deal really)
Actual: no
❌ Chris: yes
❌ Melanie: yes
❌ Chef: yes (with some deal, but not May’s current offering)
❌ David: yes
Higher or lower
Which film has the better opening weekend: Avengers Endgame or Star Wars Episode IX?
Actual: AE ($1.2bn) over IX ($725m)
❌ Chris: IX (but he actually thinks AE) (yes, still drinking)
❌ Melanie: IX
❌ Chef: IX
✅ David: AE
Which football gang finishes higher in the 2018-19 Premier League: Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur?
Actual: Tottenham (3rd) over Arsenal (6th)
❌ Chris: Arsenal (via Accrington Stanley) (cheers)
✅ Melanie: Tottenham
❌ Chef: Arsenal
✅ David: Tottenham
Which corporation has the greater market capitalisation: Apple or Microsoft?
Actual: Apple ($1.295tn) over Microsoft ($1.202tn)
✅ Chris: Apple
❌ Melanie: Microsoft
❌ Chef: Microsoft
❌ David: Microsoft
Comings and goings
(as at December 31, 2019)
Who will be the UK PM?
Actual: Boris Johnson
❌ Chris: Theresa May
❌ Melanie: Sajid Javid
✅ Chef: Boris Johnson
❌ David: Sajid Javid
Who will be the Manchester United football manager?
Actual: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
❌ Chris: Sir Alex Ferguson (hic)
❌ Melanie: Jose Mourinho
✅ Chef: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
✅ David: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
How many moonwalkers will still be alive? (Currently, 4 of 12)
Actual: 4
❌ Chris: 3
❌ Melanie: 3
✅ Chef: 4
❌ David: 3
Dates
When will Trump resign? Or won’t he resign in 2019?
Actual: he didn’t
✅ Chris: he won’t resign
✅ Melanie: he won’t resign
✅ Chef: he won’t resign
❌ David: June 1st
When will May resign? Or won’t she resign in 2019?
Actual: July 24th
❌ Chris: she won’t resign
✅ (closest) Melanie: June
❌ Chef: October 1st
❌ David: April 15th
When will Prince Philip die? Or will he make it to 2020?
Actual: still going
❌ Chris: January 10th
✅ Melanie: he won’t die in 2019
❌ Chef: June 1st
✅ David: he won’t die in 2019
See, I told you it was fascinating. And the final scores:
Hello, dear reader. It’s been a year, hasn’t it? And soon it’ll be another year. So it goes.
I gave up the proper prediction business some time ago, but at a casual wine-faced lunch today I subjected a subset of the usual suspects to a barragette of questions related to the Year of Oh Lord 2019. Herewith are those questions and our answers. Feel free to add your own answers in the comments. Chris has agreed to handle the scoring this very day next year, in the unlikely event that there is one.
One or other
The upcoming Sussex youngling. Which flavour: M, F or other?
Chris: F (and ginger)
Melanie: M
Chef: M
David: F
Ultima Thule, to be visited by New Horizons mere hours after I post. What will it turn out to be: contact binary, close binary, or other?
Chris: other – non-binary
Melanie: close binary
Chef: contact binary
David: contact binary
The Crystal Maze, Richard Ayoade edition. Axed or not?
Chris: axed
Melanie: axed
Chef: axed
David: axed
Yes or no, plus
Will there be a second referendum on Brexit? If there is, who wins?
Chris: no (if there is, remain wins)
Melanie: no (dunno)
Chef: no (remain)
David: no (remain)
Will there be a general election? If there is, who wins?
Chris: no (DUP) (yes, he’d had a few glasses of wine by now)
Melanie: no (hung)
Chef: yes (hung)
David: yes (hung)
Will Brexit happen on March 29th? (I should’ve asked about the type of deal really)
Chris: yes
Melanie: yes
Chef: yes (with some deal, but not May’s current offering)
David: yes
Higher or lower
Which film has the better opening weekend: Avengers Endgame or Star Wars Episode IX?
Chris: IX (but he actually thinks AE) (yes, still drinking)
Melanie: IX
Chef: IX
David: AE
Which football gang finishes higher in the 2018-19 Premier League: Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur?
Chris: Arsenal (via Accrington Stanley) (cheers)
Melanie: Tottenham
Chef: Arsenal
David: Tottenham
Which corporation has the greater market capitalisation: Apple or Microsoft?
Chris: Apple
Melanie: Microsoft
Chef: Microsoft
David: Microsoft
Comings and goings
(as at December 31, 2019)
Who will be the UK PM?
Chris: Theresa May
Melanie: Sajid Javid
Chef: Boris Johnson
David: Sajid Javid
Who will be the Manchester United football manager?
Chris: Sir Alex Ferguson (hic)
Melanie: Jose Mourinho
Chef: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
David: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
How many moonwalkers will still be alive? (Currently, 4 of 12)
Chris: 3
Melanie: 3
Chef: 4
David: 3
Dates
When will Trump resign? Or won’t he resign in 2019?
Chris: he won’t resign
Melanie: he won’t resign
Chef: he won’t resign
David: June 1st
When will May resign? Or won’t she resign in 2019?
Chris: she won’t resign
Melanie: June
Chef: October 1st
David: April 15th
When will Prince Philip die? Or will he make it to 2020?
I very nearly didn’t bother this year. All my usual flim-flammery aside, like many I’m genuinely pessimistic about the future, and I’m sure I don’t need to explain why. Oddly, and happily, when I decided to conjure up some predictions from somewhere and got on with it, I found my mood lifting a notch or two.
Dunkirk spirit. Keep buggering on. Listen very carefully, I shall say zis only once. You’ve gotta laugh, haven’t you? World’s gone mad.
Here we are, then: predictions for 2017. I’m trying to be optimistic.
News
Civilisation does not end in a nuclear fireball or similar Trump-triggered catastrophe.
2017 is not the warmest year globally on record, causing morons to assert that climate change isn’t happening, etc.
Mike Pence becomes Acting President after invoking Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution with the help of his chums in Congress. (Pedants: under this clause, Trump would remain president but have no powers.)
Trump resigns as president. (Pedants: see above as to why this is not the same prediction as that.)
Self-inflated gaffe balloon Boris Johnson loses his job as foreign secretary.
Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency and oh god will this never end.
Sport
Olympics! Los Angeles is awarded the 2024 summer games.
Formula One! Lewis Hamilton wins the World Drivers’ Championship.
Cricket! India win the ICC Champions Trophy.
Ladygolf! Europe win the Solheim Cup.
Soggy oars! Cambridge win the women’s university boat race.
Sandy balls! Portugal win the men’s FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup. Yes it’s a real thing.
Science and technology
Samsung drops the 3.5mm headphone jack from at least some of its phones.
The Nobel prize for physics is awarded for the confirmation of the existence of gravitational waves.
A self-driving Uber kills someone. (Pedants: when the software is in charge, whether or not there is a person “supervising” in the driver’s seat.)
Google buys Slack.
Apple’s next major release of the iPad (probably called iPad Pro 2) includes both 3D Touch and a haptic engine that tries to make typing on a screen feel more like typing on a keyboard.
A major ISP is hacked and the internet browsing habits of its users are published online.
Entertainment
Oscar for Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Fences.
Oscar for Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Jackie.
Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Heisserer, Arrival.
Oscar for Best Picture: Fences.
Channel 4 announces that the Great British Bake Off will be hosted by Jo Brand.
In the second Fantastic Beasts film, the role of Dumbledore will be played by Hugh Laurie.
Celebrity somethingwatch
This year I’m predicting different things for different people.
living: Betty White, still going strong at the end of 2017.
out of the closet: Cristiano Ronaldo, probably via accidental Instagram.
hired: Brooklyn Beckham, as a magazine photographer or similar.
fired: Jack Dorsey, as CEO of Twitter and/or Stripe.
retired: John Humphrys, as presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
expired: Henry Kissinger, please and thank you.
Guest submissions
Attendees of the ceremonial lunch that heralds these predictions were invited to suggest their own. By this stage, some drink had been taken.
Andy H – Celebrity deathwatch: David Attenborough.
Andy C – the UK does not invoke Article 50.
Andy C – Jeremy Corbyn is prime minister.
Andy C – Celebrity deathwatch: Harry Styles.
Andrew M – Scotland votes to leave the UK.
Andrew M – Celebrity deathwatch: Princess Anne.
Chris W – Some chunk of wall of some kind is built between Mexico and the US.
Chris W – Celebrity deathwatch: Nicholas Lyndhurst.
Join us this time next year, as we fend off mutant humans and chimps on horseback from the shattered remains of the internet, to learn how pessimistic we should’ve been instead.
And here they are: a list of things almost certainly not going to happen in 2015. Feel free to pop down the betting shop as soon as it opens to chuck your savings at the opposite of everything below. Don’t forget to return this time next year to gloat with your millions.
News
There is more than one UK general election.
After one of the general elections, speaker John Bercow is deposed.
The royal child-beast is of the girl persuasion, and called Elizabeth.
Hillary Clinton confirms she will run for US President.
Kim Jong Un is deposed as leader of North Korea.
The record for the highest temperature in the UK is broken.
Sport
Sepp Blatter is not re-elected as president of FIFA.
Chelsea win the English Premier League.
Australia retain the Ashes.
Germany win the women’s football World Cup in Canada.
Oxford wins the University Boat Race, again.
Cyprus comes top of the medal table in the keenly anticipated Games of the Small States of Europe in Reykjavik.
Science and technology
Apple releases a MacBook Air with a retina display.
The Dawn spacecraft discovers ice volcanoes on the surface of the dwarf planet Ceres.
The probe Philae on the surface of comet 67P emerges from hibernation sufficiently to send useful scientific data.
Microsoft buys Fitbit.
Dick Costolo leaves his position as CEO of Twitter.
YouTube users upload over 500 hours of video per minute on average.
Entertainment
Best Actor Oscar: Michael Keaton, Birdman.
Best Actress Oscar: Julianne Moore, Still Alice.
Best Picture Oscar: Birdman.
Best Director Oscar: Richard Linklater, Boyhood.
Best Visual Effects Oscar: Interstellar.
The BBC says BBC 4 will follow BBC 3 and move online.
Celebrity deathwatch
Dodgy FIFA boss before the other dodgy FIFA boss, João Havelange (98)
Avenger before the other Avengers, actor Patrick Macnee (92)
Dracula, Scaramanga, Saruman, Dooku, actor Christopher Lee (92)
I’ve met him you know, comics elder Stan Lee (92)
President Bush before the other President Bush, George HW Bush (90)
Spock before the other Spock, actor Leonard Nimoy (82)
Run out, umpire Dickie Bird (81)
War criminal, ex-veep Dick Cheney (73)
Floating like an ex-butterfly, stinging like an ex-bee, boxer Muhammad Ali (72)
Good grief, is it that time again? I’ve barely posted anything on my blog this year. Still, at today’s regular New Year’s Eve lunch official adjudicator Chris Walsh revealed just how appallingly inaccurate my 2014 predictions were. Here are the gory details – commentary etc in square brackets.
News
✓ In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No. [Correct!]
✗ Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden. [Nope: still in Russia.]
✗ The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader. [Nope.]
✓ UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. [Yes, considering the parties separately, not the combined total of the other parties.]
✗ An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event. [Couldn’t find anything.]
✗ Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail. [Nope.]
✗ More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather. [Thought expressbingo.org.uk would have the answer, but it seems to stop on 5th Feb 2014. www.thepaperboy.com has front pages going back to September 2014. Taking all front pages from those sites, 22 out of 96 have weather-related headlines, which is 23%. Extrapolating: nope.]
[Score: 2/7]
Sport
½ Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage. [Chris ignored the bit about England and awarded no points. David thinks he deserves half a point.]
✗ Liverpool win the FA Premier League. [Manchester City.]
✗ Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi. [1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze.]
✗ Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon. [Lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-final.]
✗ Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament. [Ireland.]
✗ Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series. [Third, behind Javier Gomez and Mario Mola.]
[Score: 0.5/6]
Science and technology
✓ Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella. [Yes, on February 4.]
✗ The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris. [Nope.]
✗ Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device. [Nope.]
✗ The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication. [Nope: Blue LEDs]
✗ Google buys Oculus VR. [In March, Facebook agreed to acquire Oculus VR.]
✗ Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet. [Don’t think so.]
[Score: 1/6]
Entertainment
✓ Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave. [Yes.]
✗ Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave. [Nope: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club]
✗ Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks. [Nope: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Emma Thompson wasn’t even nominated.]
✓ Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing. [Yep.]
✓ The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army). [A film of Dad’s Army is in production, unrelated to the BBC, but the BBC has broadcast Still Open All Hours, based on the old sitcom Open All Hours.]
½ In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV. [Some TOWIE woman received various bruises. Stretching the definitions of both “celebrity” and “nasty”: half a point.]
[Score: 3.5/6]
Celebrity deathwatch
✗ His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
✗ Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
✗ Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
✓ Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87 [Died September 12th]
✗ Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
✗ Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
✗ Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
✗ Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
✗ Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
✗ Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
Not as good as previous years: a dismal 22%. Overall, the predictions were far too bold. But some of them were very close, in particular the Oculus VR purchase. Ah well.
Coming soon: 2015. And also, by coincidence, my predictions for 2015.
Here they are: the 2014 predictions literally everyone hasn’t been waiting for. Please return regularly to check my progress and coincidentally bump the readership stats on my blog to make me feel better.
News
In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No.
Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden.
The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader.
UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems.
An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event.
Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail.
More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather.
Sport
Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage.
Liverpool win the FA Premier League.
Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon.
Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament.
Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series.
Science and technology
Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella.
The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris.
Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device.
The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication.
Google buys Oculus VR.
Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet.
Entertainment
Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave.
Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave.
Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks.
Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing.
The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army).
In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV.
Celebrity deathwatch
His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87
Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
Based on the pattern of previous years I’m expecting to get about 40% right. Join me this time next year to find out whether I’ve got that prediction wrong too.
Here we are again. New Year’s Eve, fireworks, and celebrations filmed several weeks ago presented as if live TV. And most importantly, the results of my fabulous 2013 predictions – as marked by Chris Walsh, as usual. Commentary etc in square brackets.
News
✗ The Assad regime in Syria will fall. [Bashar al-Assad still President of Syria]
✓ There will be no changes in US federal gun-control laws. [Obama has called for tighter gun control, but no actual laws yet]
✓ The Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a human boy. [21-Jul: Duchess of Cambridge gives birth to the future king]
✗ At least one Tory MP will defect to UKIP. [Plenty of councillors defected, and one UKIP MEP defected to the Conservatives, but this specific prediction proved false]
✗ The equal marriage bill for England and Wales will pass in the Commons but not the Lords. [15-Jul: Equal marriage bill for England and Wales has passed its Third Reading in the House of Lords]
✓ Dangerous idiot Michael Gove will be involved in a scandal over the exam board selection process for the new EBacc exams. [07-Feb: Education Secretary to announce dramatic climbdown over plans to scrap GCSEs]
[Score: 3/6]
Sport
✓ Manchester United will win the FA Premier League. [22-Apr: Manchester United won their 13th Premier League title by defeating Aston Villa 3-0 at Old Trafford]
✗ Chelsea FC will change manager at least twice. [Only one change of manager in 2013: Benitez -> Mourinho]
✓ At least one British person will win a Wimbledon title. [08-Jul: Andy Murray wins Wimbledon 2013 men’s singles final with straight sets victory over Novak Djokovic]
✓ Mo Farah will win at least one gold medal at the World Athletics Championships. [10-Aug: Won the 10,000m. Also 16-Aug: Won 5,000m]
✗ Rory McIlroy will win at least two majors in golf. [Wikipedia: “McIlroy began 2013 with high aspirations, but mostly did not fare well in early tournaments… 25th place at the 2013 Masters Tournament… won the 2013 Emirates Australian Open]
✗ At least one footballer playing in the UK will come out as gay or bisexual. [Robbie Rogers, but he plays in the USA]
[Score: 3/6]
Science and technology
✓ Microsoft will buy Nokia. [03-Sep: Microsoft to buy Nokia’s mobile phone unit]
✗ Scientists will announce the synthesis of one or more atoms of element 119 or higher. [Ununseptium remains the most recently synthesised transuranic element, in 2010. Sapphire and Steel have been assigned]
✓ NASA will declare that Voyager 1 has left the solar system and entered interstellar space. [12-Sep: Voyager 1 departs to interstellar space]
✗ Scientists will announce the discovery of an ‘Earth twin’ – an Earth-sized exoplanet within the habitable zone of its star. [Kepler 78b is the same size as Earth, and has same proportions of iron and rock, but is so close to the sun that its year lasts 8.5 hours, rendering it a little too toasty to be habitable]
✓ The year will be one of the ten warmest years in the global record, and warmer than 2012, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. [13-Nov: “The year 2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since modern records began. January-September 2013 was warmer than the same period in both 2011 and 2012.” We’re catching up with Kepler 78b!]
✓ Archaeologists will confirm that the bones dug up in a Leicester car park are those of Richard III. [04-Feb: DNA confirms bones are king’s]
[Score: 4/6]
Entertainment
✗ Lincoln will receive the Oscar for Best Picture. [Feb-24: Argo]
✓ Daniel Day-Lewis will receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his performance in Lincoln.
✓ Jennifer Lawrence will receive the Oscar for Best Actress for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook.
✓ The 50th anniversary of Doctor Who will involve appearances (in newly filmed scenes) from at least one former Doctor. [23-Nov: Tennant and Baker T, plus future Doctor!]
✗ The BBC will cancel The Sky at Night (probably while pretending not to). [Still running – Maggie Aderin-Pocock announced in December 2013 as a new presenter]
✓ The UK entry will finish in the third quarter of the rankings (ie, top half of the bottom half) in the Eurovision Song Contest. [1pt. 18-May: 19th out of 26 puts us 73% of the way down the leader board]
[Score: 4/6]
Celebrity Deathwatch
[We decided to award half a point per death to make the scores more compatible with predictions from previous years, since I included double the usual number of names in this section. We also abandoned the idea to score based on ages.]
✗ Denis Healey (95)
✓ Nelson Mandela (94) [Died 5-Dec aged 95]
✗ Mickey Rooney (92)
✗ Nancy Reagan (91)
✗ Richard Attenborough (89)
✗ Robert Mugabe (88)
✗ George H. W. Bush (88)
✓ Richard Briers (78) [Died 17-Feb aged 79]
✗ Barry Humphries (78)
✗ Shirley MacLaine (78)
✗ Bill Murray (62)
✗ Piers Morgan (47)
[Score: 1/6]
[Total score: 15/30]
A staggering score of 50%! This makes 2013 officially my most successful year ever for predictions. And if the trend of alternating better-worse but generally rising is anything to go by, my predictions for 2014 are on course for 40%. Though I can reveal that’s not one of my official 2014 predictions, otherwise we’re adrift in a glittering sea of meta.
Anyway, return soon for the 2014 predictions in all their 40%-likely glory.
2012! Who could forget the glorious summer? The coronation of Queen (formerly Sir Alan) Amidala? Britain’s abject failure in the 1500m tug-of-raw at the organic Spacelympics? The universal acclaim for the politics of austerity?
As the dregs of the year drip from the meths bottle of tomorrow into the tramp’s mouth of history and dribble through the foetid beard of ornithology onto the mangy dog’s head of clinical studies at Guy’s Hospital, it is time to stare resolutely past the tramp’s outstretched palm of invisibility to what 2013 will bring forth, or perhaps fifth. Here’s what I think:
News
The Assad regime in Syria will fall.
There will be no changes in US federal gun-control laws.
The Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a human boy.
At least one Tory MP will defect to UKIP.
The equal marriage bill for England and Wales will pass in the Commons but not the Lords.
Dangerous idiot Michael Gove will be involved in a scandal over the exam board selection process for the new EBacc exams.
Sport
Manchester United will win the FA Premier League.
Chelsea FC will change manager at least twice.
At least one British person will win a Wimbledon title.
Mo Farah will win at least one gold medal at the World Athletics Championships.
Rory McIlroy will win at least two majors in golf.
At least one footballer playing in the UK will come out as gay or bisexual.
Science and technology
Microsoft will buy Nokia.
Scientists will announce the synthesis of one or more atoms of element 119 or higher.
NASA will declare that Voyager 1 has left the solar system and entered interstellar space.
Scientists will announce the discovery of an ‘Earth twin’ – an Earth-sized exoplanet within the habitable zone of its star.
The year will be one of the ten warmest years in the global record, and warmer than 2012, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
Archaeologists will confirm that the bones dug up in a Leicester car park are those of Richard III.
Entertainment
Lincoln will receive the Oscar for Best Picture.
Daniel Day-Lewis will receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his performance in Lincoln.
Jennifer Lawrence will receive the Oscar for Best Actress for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook.
The 50th anniversary of Doctor Who will involve appearances (in newly filmed scenes) from at least one former Doctor.
The BBC will cancel The Sky at Night (probably while pretending not to).
The UK entry will finish in the third quarter of the rankings (ie, top half of the bottom half) in the Eurovision Song Contest.
Celebrity Deathwatch
In previous years I’ve named six people. This year I thought I’d round it up to nine, but then discovered three of my names overlapped with Andrew’s (caution: Facebook). Consequently I added three more, to make twelve.
Also, I’m adopting Andrew’s scoring system: each valid death (occurring at any time in the year) scores that person’s age at death subtracted from 100. For example, an 85-year-old’s death would score 15 points, and a 101-year-old’s would score -1 point (thus making it a daft choice). For reference, I’ve included the age of each of my selected celebrities, as at January 1st 2013.
Denis Healey (95)
Nelson Mandela (94)
Mickey Rooney (92)
Nancy Reagan (91)
Richard Attenborough (89)
Robert Mugabe (88)
George H. W. Bush (88)
Richard Briers (78)
Barry Humphries (78)
Shirley MacLaine (78)
Bill Murray (62)
Piers Morgan (47)
Please join me next New Year’s Eve for the official adjudication and other assorted lols.
As usual the cider-enhanced Chris Walsh has cast a rheumy eye over the predictions I made a year ago and awarded the marks as he saw fit. Adjudications and correct answers in square brackets.
News
It will be announced that the Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant. [1pt]
Ed Miliband will be replaced as leader of the Labour party. [0pt]
The US presidential election will be between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Obama will be re-elected. [1pt]
At least one country will leave the euro. [0pt]
Boris Johnson will be re-elected as Mayor of London. [1pt]
There will be an earthquake in the UK of magnitude 4.0 or above on the Richter scale. (I’m only using this scale as it’s the one used on the Wikipedia page for UK earthquakes.) [0pt]
[Score: 3/6]
Sport
Great Britain & Northern Ireland will win 21 gold medals at the Summer Olympics, and over 50 medals in total. [1pt: GB&NI won 29 gold and 65 in total]
Great Britain & Northern Ireland will top the medal table at the Paralympics. [0pt: third, after China and Russia]
Spain will win the Euro 2012 football tournament. [1pt]
The United States will regain golf’s Ryder Cup. [0pt: Europe won in a very close finish]
Jensen Button will regain the Formula One championship. [0pt: Sebastian Vettel]
Manchester City will win the English Premier League. [1pt: with a last-minute goal on the last day of the season]
[Score: 3/6]
Science and technology
Having miraculously survived 2011, Steve Ballmer will definitely be fired as Microsoft CEO. [0pt: still there!]
CERN will announce the official discovery of the Higgs boson. [0.999pt, rounded up to 1pt]
Apple will launch a TV. [0pt]
At least one of the co-CEOs of RIM will be fired, and the company will be bought. [0pt: Jim Balsillie resigned but was not fired, and RIM wasn’t bought]
The next version of the iPhone will include an NFC chip. [0pt: rumoured for the 5S]
Amazon will release a free version of the Kindle. [0pt: but Chris wishes they would, as he sat on his and broke it]
[Score: 1/6]
Entertainment
The 2012 season of X Factor in the UK will be the last. [0pt: nothing announced – time will tell!]
In Doctor Who, the replacement for the Ponds will not be from Earth. [0pt: nothing to suggest she’s not from earth – time will tell!]
Best Actress Oscar: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady. [1pt]
Best Actor Oscar: Jean Dujardin, The Artist. [1pt]
Best Picture Oscar: The Artist. [1pt]
CNN will fire Piers Morgan. [0pt: although competing petitions to deport/refuse repatriation suggest nobody wants him]
[Score: 3/6]
Celebrity Deathwatch
Former anthropology student, US evangelist Billy Graham. [alive!]
Former ophthalmology student, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. [alive!]
Former chemistry student, Baroness Thatcher. [alive!]
Former naval cadet, Prince Philip. [alive!]
Former Cassius Clay, Muhammad Ali. [alive!]
Former Hitler Youth, Pope Benedict XVI. [alive!]
[Score: 0/6]
[Total score: 10/30]
Not as good as last year. I suspect I was a year early on most of the science and technology predictions. And my celebrity deathwatch category maintains its staggering 100% failure record.
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