Avaragado’s 2016 predictions – results


That was a year.

Six hours from 2017 in glorious GMT, and we’re all still refreshing our browsers to see which of the dwindling band of celebs are extraordinarily keen to avoid the Hootenanny. As the fireworks tick west, it’s time to review my predictions for 2016.

The well-lubricated Chris Walsh adjudicated, as ever, and his comments are in square brackets.


  1. In the thrilling Euro referendum that I hope to god happens in 2016 so we don’t have to suffer another whole year of it, the tedious British public votes 53% to 47% (±1%) to remain in the EU. [51.9% to 48.1% to LEAVE – 0pt]
  2. Bacon-worrier David Cameron resigns as prime minister. [1pt]
  3. Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election. [Optimism – I remember that! 0pt]
  4. 2016 is the warmest year globally on record. [“2016 will very likely be the hottest year on record and a new high for the third year in a row, according to the UN” – 1pt]
  5. The Bank of England leaves interest rates at 0.5% all year. [Down to 0.25% – 0pt]
  6. The price of oil doesn’t go above $50 a barrel all year. [The current price of WTI crude oil as of December 19, 2016 is $51.72 per barrel. – 0pt]


  1. In the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Team GB win 20±2 gold medals in total. [27 – 0pt]
  2. In the Euro 2016 football championships, England finish in the top 4. [Didn’t make it to quarter finals – 0pt]
  3. Oxford win the men’s University Boat Race. [Cambridge! – 0pt]
  4. HRH Prince Ali Al Hussein is elected the next president of FIFA. [Gianni Infantino – 0pt]
  5. Wales win the Rugby Union Six Nations. [England – 0pt]
  6. Europe retain the Ryder Cup. [USA – 0pt]

Science and technology

  1. The iPhone 7 (pedants: or whatever Apple calls the next major iPhone revision) has no 3.5mm headphone jack. [True! – 1pt]
  2. Apple releases a Mac with an A-branded (ARM, not Intel) processor. [Not yet – 0pt]
  3. Google buys Signal. [Don’t think so… – 0pt]
  4. A major security breach at the NHS leaks hundreds of thousands of patient details. [“An NHS trust has been fined £180,000 after a sexual health facility in central London accidentally leaked the personal details of 780 HIV clinic attendees by email.” … out by several factors of 10 – 0pt]
  5. Physicists confirm the first evidence for gravitational waves. [1pt]
  6. An out-of-control drone causes a major incident (eg a collision with an aircraft). [“Drone hits British Airways plane as it prepares to land at Heathrow” – 18th April 2016. Not sure that counts as a major incident, but the point is yours – 1pt]


  1. To save money, the BBC decides to close BBC Four. [Still there – 0pt]
  2. Peter Capaldi announces he is to leave Doctor Who. [Still there – 0pt]
  3. Oscar for Best Picture: The Revenant. [1pt]
  4. Oscar for Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian. [Alejandro González Iñárritu, Revenant – 0pt]
  5. Oscar for Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. [Leonardo Di Caprio, Revenant – 0pt]
  6. Oscar for Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room. [1pt]

You’re celebrity fired

  1. Piers Morgan leaves Good Morning Britain. [Still there – 0pt]
  2. Marissa Meyer leaves Yahoo. [Still there – 0pt]
  3. Louis van Gaal leaves Manchester United. [1pt]
  4. Chris Evans (not that one) leaves the role of Editor of the Daily Telegraph. [Still there – 0pt]
  5. Philip Hammond leaves the role of Foreign Secretary. [Now Chancellor … 1pt]
  6. Sir Lord Alan Sugar leaves The Apprentice. [Still there – 0pt]

[2016 … a turbulent year for sure, and now confirmed as utterly unpredictable. What a year to abandon the “Celebrity Deathwatch” round though!  9 out of a possible 30, which gives a meagre (if nicely round) 30%.]

Coming soon: oh god, what next?


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