Dad

My dad died at the end of May. He had been living with dementia for several years — for decreasing values of “living” — and had been in a care home for the last two of those years. Ten days before he died he was taken to hospital when the care home staff became worried about his condition. This turned out to be a false alarm and he returned to the care home that night; however, it seems he contracted COVID-19 during the hospital visit.

He showed no symptoms. Until that point, the care home had been extremely careful to ensure they kept free of the virus, allowing no visitors and with some staff moving in temporarily. Sadly it seems possible my dad introduced it on returning from the hospital, and a number of staff and residents have subsequently been unwell.

My dad appeared fine until the day he died, when he stopped drinking water. He was taken to hospital again, where they realised he had pneumonia, and was near the end. Thankfully my mum was able to be with him — in full, suffocating PPE — for his last moments. It was quick and peaceful.

The lockdown period was by far the longest time they had been apart for the 55 years of their marriage. I cannot imagine how those last few minutes together felt.

It was only when mum received dad’s death certificate that we learned he’d had COVID-19. He’d been tested on admission on the day he died. Died with, died of, it doesn’t matter much.

And so he became a statistic: one of the 300 or so in the next day’s graphics, a nudge upwards on the charts. His life was near the end even without the virus, and bluntly his death came as a relief — he was a shell, he knew none of us, only music perked him up. He was existing, not living. And yet the virus took him before his time.

His funeral was last week. I drove behind the hearse — no funeral cars permitted — at 30 mph along a dual carriageway, and watched drivers around us try to figure out how to cut in for junctions. The service was small, only eleven mourners, socially distanced. Somewhere in Time by John Barry. Do not stand by my bed and weepJerusalemString of Pearls by Glenn Miller. Various Jesus bits. There’s a poem at the back of the order of service I can’t read yet.

We used the photo at the top of this post on the front cover of the order of service. I took it at the party we held for his 80th, back in 2014. By coincidence I’ve recently been scanning and fixing photos of him kept by his own mother. Here are a few of them, plus some others in my collection.

He was kind, and calm, and loving, and entirely to blame for my sense of humour. I heard him swear approximately once. Even when we all knew his memory was failing, he remained cheerful. He’d hold out a palmful of coins and say he didn’t recognise any of them, and laugh about it. He accepted every new hardship, every walled-off memory, with grace and a shrug or an eye-roll.

And every time I visited my parents, I left thinking that was the best he’d ever be.

My mum became his carer, until his condition deteriorated and he needed special care. Throughout all of this she has been stronger than I thought possible, finding humour from the darkest moments. The memories of the last few terrible years can now at least begin to fade, and let the good years take their place. He is gone, but not gone.

We were so lucky.

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Avaragado and friends get bored/drunk predicting 2020

Look! Look at us all!

At yesterday’s lunch I attempted another set of group predictions for 2020, with… mixed results. Perhaps – and you may well argue that I should have learned this lesson by now – leaving it until Chris and Chef were a few fathoms into their second bottle was a mistake.

However, that was last decade, back when we still had hope, before trousers were currency and before the Denunciation of the Courgette. Now we must push on, push on, into our 4K teal and orange future.

Our collective (hic) vision for 2020 follows:

Politics

  1. Who will be the leader of the main UK political parties (Con, Lab, LD, SNP) on December 25, 2020?
    • Melanie: Boris Johnson, Daniel Zeichner, Layla Moran, Nicola Sturgeon
    • Chris: Boris Johnson, Billy Bragg, Caroline Flack, Jimmy McSporran
    • Chef: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Jo Swinson, Nicola Sturgeon
    • Andy H: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey, Nicola Sturgeon
    • Andy C: Boris Johnson, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Ed Davey, Nicola Sturgeon
    • David: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey, Nicola Sturgeon
  2. Brexit! Will the UK extend the transition period beyond December 2020? If so, until when? If not, will the transition end with or without a deal?
    • Melanie: yes, until a table is booked at Milliways
    • Chris: yes, until the end of time
    • Chef: no, and there’ll be no deal
    • Andy H: yes, for three months
    • Andy C: yes, until end of January 2021
    • David: yes, until end of 2021
  3. Will Scotland have an independence referendum in 2020? If so, what’s the result?
    • Melanie: no; it’ll be talked about, but that’s it
    • Chris: yes; no score after extra time
    • Chef: no
    • Andy H: no
    • Andy C: no
    • David: no; it’ll be scheduled for 2021
  4. Who will be the Democrat nominee against Trump in the November 2020 election, and what will be the result of that election?
    • Melanie: RBG; Democrat win
    • Chris: The Littlest Hobo; Trump win
    • Chef: Elizabeth Warren; Trump win
    • Andy H: Elizabeth Warren; Trump win
    • Andy C: Hillary Clinton; Trump win
    • David: want Elizabeth Warren (score me on this one), fear Joe Biden; Democrat win

Entertainment

  1. How many Oscar nominations will Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker receive? And how many wins? Guess categories for bonus points.
    • Melanie: 4, 1, VFX
    • Chris: 3, 3, Best lesbian kiss not shown in Shanghai
    • Chef: 2, 0
    • Andy H: 2, 0, VFX
    • Andy C: 4, 0
    • David: 5, 2, VFX
  2. Which country will come first at Eurovision 2020? And where will the UK finish?
    • Melanie: Putin; bottom
    • Chris: Central African Republic; 30th
    • Chef: Norway; 2nd from bottom
    • Andy H: Denmark; bottom
    • Andy C: Ireland; bottom
    • David: Australia; 18th
  3. Who will be announced, if anyone, as the next James Bond?
    • Melanie: Robert Pattinson
    • Chris: Hermione Granger
    • Chef: Daniel Radcliffe
    • Andy H: no announcement
    • Andy C: Jodie Comer
    • David: no announcement
  4. What will be the highest audience for an episode of Doctor Who series 12?
    • Melanie: 8.7m
    • Chris: too drunk to answer
    • Chef: too drunk to answer
    • Andy H: 8m
    • Andy C: 9.6m
    • David: 8.5m
  5. How many Razzies will the Cats movie receive?
    • Melanie: 5
    • Chris: too drunk to answer
    • Chef: too drunk to answer
    • Andy H: 3
    • Andy C: 4
    • David: 5

Sport

  1. How many gold/silver/bronze medals will Team GB win at the Summer Olympics in Tokyo?
    • Melanie: 73 total
    • Chris: 69 bronze
    • Chef: 24 gold, 36 silver, 12 bronze
    • Andy H: 50 total
    • Andy C: 65 total
    • David: 60 total

There you have it, and may god have mercy on our souls.

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2019 predictions – results

I’m not entirely sure why I bother, but here we are again.

At our semi-annual New Year’s Eve lunch yesterday, it emerged that I was the only one to remember our group predictions from the last gasp of 2018. While Chef and Chris glugged the wine, I dug out the predictions and scored us all.

It’s fascinating, I tell you. Here are the results.

One or other

  1. The upcoming Sussex youngling. Which flavour: M, F or other?
    • Actual: M
    • ❌ Chris: F (and ginger)
    • ✅ Melanie: M
    • ✅ Chef: M
    • ❌ David: F
  2. Ultima Thule, to be visited by New Horizons mere hours after I post. What will it turn out to be: contact binary, close binary, or other?
    • Actual: contact binary
    • ❌ Chris: other – non-binary
    • ❌ Melanie: close binary
    • ✅ Chef: contact binary
    • ✅ David: contact binary
  3. The Crystal Maze, Richard Ayoade edition. Axed or not?
    • Actual: not
    • ❌ Chris: axed
    • ❌ Melanie: axed
    • ❌ Chef: axed
    • ❌ David: axed

Yes or no, plus

  1. Will there be a second referendum on Brexit? If there is, who wins?
    • Actual: no
    • ✅ Chris: no (if there is, remain wins)
    • ✅ Melanie: no (dunno)
    • ✅ Chef:  no (remain)
    • ✅ David: no (remain)
  2. Will there be a general election? If there is, who wins?
    • Actual: yes (Tories)
    • ❌❌ Chris: no (DUP) (yes, he’d had a few glasses of wine by now)
    • ❌❌ Melanie: no (hung)
    • ✅❌ Chef: yes (hung)
    • ✅❌ David: yes (hung)
  3. Will Brexit happen on March 29th? (I should’ve asked about the type of deal really)
    • Actual: no
    • ❌ Chris: yes
    • ❌ Melanie: yes
    • ❌ Chef: yes (with some deal, but not May’s current offering)
    • ❌ David: yes

Higher or lower

  1. Which film has the better opening weekend: Avengers Endgame or Star Wars Episode IX?
    • Actual: AE ($1.2bn) over IX ($725m)
    • ❌ Chris: IX (but he actually thinks AE) (yes, still drinking)
    • ❌ Melanie: IX
    • ❌ Chef: IX
    • ✅ David: AE
  2. Which football gang finishes higher in the 2018-19 Premier League: Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur?
    • Actual: Tottenham (3rd) over Arsenal (6th)
    • ❌ Chris: Arsenal (via Accrington Stanley) (cheers)
    • ✅ Melanie: Tottenham
    • ❌ Chef: Arsenal
    • ✅ David: Tottenham
  3. Which corporation has the greater market capitalisation: Apple or Microsoft?
    • Actual: Apple ($1.295tn) over Microsoft ($1.202tn)
    • ✅ Chris: Apple
    • ❌ Melanie: Microsoft
    • ❌ Chef: Microsoft
    • ❌ David: Microsoft

Comings and goings

(as at December 31, 2019)

  1. Who will be the UK PM?
    • Actual: Boris Johnson
    • ❌ Chris: Theresa May
    • ❌ Melanie: Sajid Javid
    • ✅ Chef: Boris Johnson
    • ❌ David: Sajid Javid
  2. Who will be the Manchester United football manager?
    • Actual: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
    • ❌ Chris: Sir Alex Ferguson (hic)
    • ❌ Melanie: Jose Mourinho
    • ✅ Chef: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
    • ✅ David: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
  3. How many moonwalkers will still be alive? (Currently, 4 of 12)
    • Actual: 4
    • ❌ Chris: 3
    • ❌ Melanie: 3
    • ✅ Chef: 4
    • ❌ David: 3

Dates

  1. When will Trump resign? Or won’t he resign in 2019?
    • Actual: he didn’t
    • ✅ Chris: he won’t resign
    • ✅ Melanie: he won’t resign
    • ✅ Chef: he won’t resign
    • ❌ David: June 1st
  2. When will May resign? Or won’t she resign in 2019?
    • Actual: July 24th
    • ❌ Chris: she won’t resign
    • ✅ (closest) Melanie: June
    • ❌ Chef: October 1st
    • ❌ David: April 15th
  3. When will Prince Philip die? Or will he make it to 2020?
    • Actual: still going
    • ❌ Chris: January 10th
    • ✅ Melanie: he won’t die in 2019
    • ❌ Chef: June 1st
    • ✅ David: he won’t die in 2019

See, I told you it was fascinating. And the final scores:

  • 🥄 Chris: 3
  • 🥉 Melanie: 6
  • 🥇 Chef: 8
  • 🥈David: 7

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Avaragado and friends predict(ish) 2019

Hello, dear reader. It’s been a year, hasn’t it? And soon it’ll be another year. So it goes.

I gave up the proper prediction business some time ago, but at a casual wine-faced lunch today I subjected a subset of the usual suspects to a barragette of questions related to the Year of Oh Lord 2019. Herewith are those questions and our answers. Feel free to add your own answers in the comments. Chris has agreed to handle the scoring this very day next year, in the unlikely event that there is one.

One or other

  1. The upcoming Sussex youngling. Which flavour: M, F or other?
    • Chris: F (and ginger)
    • Melanie: M
    • Chef: M
    • David: F
  2. Ultima Thule, to be visited by New Horizons mere hours after I post. What will it turn out to be: contact binary, close binary, or other?
    • Chris: other – non-binary
    • Melanie: close binary
    • Chef: contact binary
    • David: contact binary
  3. The Crystal Maze, Richard Ayoade edition. Axed or not?
    • Chris: axed
    • Melanie: axed
    • Chef: axed
    • David: axed

Yes or no, plus

  1. Will there be a second referendum on Brexit? If there is, who wins?
    • Chris: no (if there is, remain wins)
    • Melanie: no (dunno)
    • Chef:  no (remain)
    • David: no (remain)
  2. Will there be a general election? If there is, who wins?
    • Chris: no (DUP) (yes, he’d had a few glasses of wine by now)
    • Melanie: no (hung)
    • Chef: yes (hung)
    • David: yes (hung)
  3. Will Brexit happen on March 29th? (I should’ve asked about the type of deal really)
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • Chef: yes (with some deal, but not May’s current offering)
    • David: yes

Higher or lower

  1. Which film has the better opening weekend: Avengers Endgame or Star Wars Episode IX?
    • Chris: IX (but he actually thinks AE) (yes, still drinking)
    • Melanie: IX
    • Chef: IX
    • David: AE
  2. Which football gang finishes higher in the 2018-19 Premier League: Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur?
    • Chris: Arsenal (via Accrington Stanley) (cheers)
    • Melanie: Tottenham
    • Chef: Arsenal
    • David: Tottenham
  3. Which corporation has the greater market capitalisation: Apple or Microsoft?
    • Chris: Apple
    • Melanie: Microsoft
    • Chef: Microsoft
    • David: Microsoft

Comings and goings

(as at December 31, 2019)

  1. Who will be the UK PM?
    • Chris: Theresa May
    • Melanie: Sajid Javid
    • Chef: Boris Johnson
    • David: Sajid Javid
  2. Who will be the Manchester United football manager?
    • Chris: Sir Alex Ferguson (hic)
    • Melanie: Jose Mourinho
    • Chef: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
    • David: Ole Gunnar Solskjær
  3. How many moonwalkers will still be alive? (Currently, 4 of 12)
    • Chris: 3
    • Melanie: 3
    • Chef: 4
    • David: 3

Dates

  1. When will Trump resign? Or won’t he resign in 2019?
    • Chris: he won’t resign
    • Melanie: he won’t resign
    • Chef: he won’t resign
    • David: June 1st
  2. When will May resign? Or won’t she resign in 2019?
    • Chris: she won’t resign
    • Melanie: June
    • Chef: October 1st
    • David: April 15th
  3. When will Prince Philip die? Or will he make it to 2020?
    • Chris: January 10th
    • Melanie: he won’t die in 2019
    • Chef: June 1st
    • David: he won’t die in 2019

Run along now.

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Avaragado’s 2017 predictions – results

Hello, blog fans. I see from my records that I’ve posted here precisely once since I published my predictions for 2017. In that British Bulldog (bank holidays only, if wet in town hall) spirit, I have failed to conjure up any predictions for 2018 whatsoever. I know. Blame Trump et al. Any relatively sane projection is confounded by the mincing machine masquerading as current affairs, and I’m still finding it hard to predict anything other than “Everything dies except cockroaches and Farage”.

Nevertheless, we have mostly survived to the end of 2017 (at time of writing) and 2017’s predictions must by contractual obligation be marked. As ever Mr C Walsh plays Judge Rinder. The voice you shall now hear in square brackets is his.

News

  1. Civilisation does not end in a nuclear fireball or similar Trump-triggered catastrophe. [True! 1 pt [citation needed]]
  2. 2017 is not the warmest year globally on record, causing morons to assert that climate change isn’t happening, etc. [Not hottest, but top 3 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41859288 — 1pt]
  3. Mike Pence becomes Acting President after invoking Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution with the help of his chums in Congress. (Pedants: under this clause, Trump would remain president but have no powers.) [Nope]
  4. Trump resigns as president. (Pedants: see above as to why this is not the same prediction as that.) [Nope]
  5. Self-inflated gaffe balloon Boris Johnson loses his job as foreign secretary. [Nope]
  6. Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency and oh god will this never end. [Nope … vive Le Macaroon!]

Sport

  1. Olympics! Los Angeles is awarded the 2024 summer games. [Nope. One olympics out … Paris next, then LA http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/paris-to-host-2024-olympic-games-los-angeles-2028-a7869826.html]
  2. Formula One! Lewis Hamilton wins the World Drivers’ Championship. [True! 1 pt]
  3. Cricket! India win the ICC Champions Trophy. [Nope, Pakistan.]
  4. Ladygolf! Europe win the Solheim Cup. [Nope, USA]
  5. Soggy oars! Cambridge win the women’s university boat race. [True, 1pt]
  6. Sandy balls! Portugal win the men’s FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup. Yes it’s a real thing. [Nope, Brazil.]

Science and technology

  1. Samsung drops the 3.5mm headphone jack from at least some of its phones. [Still there, and staying for next year apparently http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/samsung-galaxy-s9-latest-updates-specs-news-headphone-jack-size-3-mm-leaks-launch-a8129761.html]
  2. The Nobel prize for physics is awarded for the confirmation of the existence of gravitational waves. [True! 1pt]
  3. A self-driving Uber kills someone. (Pedants: when the software is in charge, whether or not there is a person “supervising” in the driver’s seat.) [Crash, but no deaths. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/26/uber-suspends-self-driving-cars-arizona-crash-volvo-suv]
  4. Google buys Slack. [Nope, lots of cash from SoftBank though http://fortune.com/2017/09/17/slack-raise-valuation/. Hope they’ve kept enough back to give me a bonus!]
  5. Apple’s next major release of the iPad (probably called iPad Pro 2) includes both 3D Touch and a haptic engine that tries to make typing on a screen feel more like typing on a keyboard. [Oh I don’t know! I’ve still got an iPad 2 that’s getting on for a decade old. That doesn’t have anything haptic. Still plays Cradle of Empires though, so no need to upgrade yet. Here’s a loooong article that I haven’t read that suggests iPad will never get 3D touch. https://www.imore.com/why-ipad-pro-doesnt-have-3d-touch]
  6. A major ISP is hacked and the internet browsing habits of its users are published online. [This didn’t happen, so null points. They don’t need to get hacked now though, they can just sell your browsing history: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/03/28/so_my_isp_can_now_sell_my_browsing_history_what_can_i_do/]

Entertainment

  1. Oscar for Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Fences. [Casey Affleck, for Manchester by the Sea. (Confusing title — Manchester is nowhere near the sea. Do they mean Liverpool?)]
  2. Oscar for Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Jackie. [Emma Stone, La La Land.]
  3. Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Heisserer, Arrival. [Moonlight. Still not seen it!]
  4. Oscar for Best Picture: Fences. [No — it was won by La La Land. Sorry, I mean Moonlight. Ahahahaha!]
  5. Channel 4 announces that the Great British Bake Off will be hosted by Jo Brand. [No, but she’s still doing a sterling job on extra slice.]
  6. In the second Fantastic Beasts film, the role of Dumbledore will be played by Hugh Laurie. [Jude Law, apparently. http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/fantastic-beasts-2-jude-law-young-dumbledore-the-crimes-of-grindelwald-johnny-depp-a8134721.html]

Celebrity somethingwatch

This year I’m predicting different things for different people.
  • living: Betty White, still going strong at the end of 2017. [True, 1pt]
  • out of the closet: Cristiano Ronaldo, probably via accidental Instagram. [No, just the opposite! Steadfastly heterosexual, with a girlfriend and newborn baby to prove it!]
  • hired: Brooklyn Beckham, as a magazine photographer or similar. [1pt Photography book deal, purely on his own merit! 1pt! https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/08/nepotism-self-entitlement-brooklyn-beckham-photographs-book-deal-hadley-freeman]
  • fired: Jack Dorsey, as CEO of Twitter and/or Stripe. [Nope, still gainfully employed.]
  • retired: John Humphrys, as presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. [Still going strong, despite a strong challenge from Prince Harry]
  • expired: Henry Kissinger, please and thank you. [Still going strong.]

Guest submissions

Attendees of the ceremonial lunch that heralds these predictions were invited to suggest their own. By this stage, some drink had been taken.
  • Andy H – Celebrity deathwatch: David Attenborough. [Nope.]
  • Andy C –  the UK does not invoke Article 50. [Nope.]
  • Andy C – Jeremy Corbyn is prime minister. [Nope.]
  • Andy C – Celebrity deathwatch: Harry Styles. [Nope (he even survived Dunkirk!)]
  • Andrew M – Scotland votes to leave the UK. [Nope]
  • Andrew M – Celebrity deathwatch: Princess Anne. [Nope]
  • Chris W – Some chunk of wall of some kind is built between Mexico and the US. [1pt — prototypes built, apparently: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/29/16298346/trump-administration-started-building-wall]
  • Chris W – Celebrity deathwatch: Nicholas Lyndhurst. [No Goodnight Sweetheart for Rodney.]

Summary: rubbish

News (2/6)
Sport (2/6)
Science and technology (1/6)
Entertainment (0/6)
Celebrity somethingwatch (2/6)
Guest submissions (1/8)
TOTAL: 8/38 – 21%

2018

In lieu of a big list of concrete measurable predictions, I have some general wishy-washy hand-wavy Feelings and Thoughts from my hessian yurt.

Will Mueller find a smoking gun? Probably not doing yer actual bang, but pretty obviously damning. Will it make a difference? No, unless the Democrats can retake Congress.

Will the Democrats retake Congress? They might get one house. I’ll be surprised if they retake both.

This presupposes Trump doesn’t kill us all in the meantime. He might.

In the parade of gleaming dustbins that is May’s Britain, I can’t see her lasting the year. Possibly in a classic Tory internal knifing she’ll be replaced by one or other of the current set of honkers in cabinet, all of whom are barely more competent than dogs typing. Possibly the crumbling tower of Brexit collapses and there’s another election.

Corbyn as PM? It’s possible. Will he be any better? Highly unlikely. The Brexit rollercoaster hurtles on through the nethers of the Temple of Doom, and it doesn’t look like anyone on board is wearing any shoes.

Another referendum? I can’t see it happening.

Second half of Eurovision. Second round of the World Cup. There you go, chew on those…

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BBC bias and repetition and repetition and repetition

I don’t think the BBC is deliberately biased. I think it’s often daft, over-cautious, suckered, pressured, or naïve. Some of this is a result of the Hutton Inquiry, which resulted in several high-ranking BBC defenestrations and a collective case of the jitters which has yet to fully dissipate. Some is the infinite badgering of the Murdochs and Desmonds and Dacres and their broods, the right-wing tabloids.

I’m a huge fan of the BBC. Look, here’s me saying so in a piece I recorded for the BBC Newswatch programme on 3rd February (full programme, might not be visible in your country, or mine if it evaporates due to expiry, policy change or acts of Trump). Or here’s the full piece I recorded:

 

Where I struggle is with things like this image. I first saw it last night and it’s just been replaced as I’ve been writing this post, which means it was the main image on the BBC News front page for around twelve hours.

This image repeats the Tory’s election slogan three times.

Is this proof of bias? No.

Is it stupid/naïve? Yes. Oh, so very much yes.

I have to assume that some editorial process took place to select this image from the semi-infinite number available. I have to assume it wasn’t simply dropped in by a passing Tory. I have faith that the editorial process is designed to take the independence and impartiality of the BBC into account, because I believe most if not all BBC employees feel strongly about those factors.

I suppose I should explain why I think it’s inappropriate. It’s because of the repetition. It’s because of the repetition. It’s because of the repetition.

Here’s a quote from the US Office of Strategic Services, describing the profile of a certain moustachioed wartime loon:

His primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it (source)

I’m not saying ZOMG TORIES ARE HITLER!!1! VOTE THERESA FOR A STRONG AND STABLE REICH or anything like that. I’ll leave it up to you to compare Hitler’s primary rules to how modern politics is conducted. But look at that last point. “If you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.”

Ooh, look, I’ve repeated it. No, that doesn’t make it a lie, that’s wonky logic. It means it reinforces the idea in your mind.

The principle of repetition can’t make us believe things we know to be false. No amount of repetition of “CATS ARE JUST SARCASTIC DOGS” convinces us. But “strong and stable” isn’t provable and it’s talking about the unknowable future anyway, so this caveat doesn’t apply here.

Here’s a better exploration of the ideas from – ahem – the BBC.

Why was this image selected and used for so long? Perhaps someone thought they were using it ironically to mock the constant repetition. Perhaps someone didn’t see the repetition. Perhaps someone didn’t care. Perhaps someone didn’t know about the underlying psychology at work.

But the psychology is at work, whether anyone knew it or not.

And it’s important to recognise that most of the population are barely aware of politics even now, in the most politically bonkers period in my life. Some people are not even aware there’s a general election on (most likely including the current resident of the White House).

These people see newspaper front pages and headlines about politics: and often no more than that, as they skip to another story. They might see BBC News website front pages, as they scroll down to the weather or the sport or the twelve surprising facts about earthquakes. And before they turn or scroll the page they see the repetition in the image: strong, stable, strong, stable, strong, stable.

It reinforces the idea in their minds.

The Tory party knows this. This is why Tories repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat. They don’t care if they’re mocked by people on Twitter, or if the HIGNFY audience laughs at it, or if a random builder shouts out “Oi oi, I’ll give you strong and stable” at a passing candidate (well, it might happen). That shows their plan is working. Their long-term economic plan – oh, no, that was used at the last election two years ago. You still remember it? Well, fancy that.

How’s that plan working out for you?

(In 2010, the Tory plan was to balance the budget by 2015. In 2017, the Tory plan is to balance the budget by 2025.)

Repeating a political party slogan helps that party, whether you intend it as mockery or satire or not. (I’ve thought about removing the S-words from this post for exactly this reason.)

It is not the job of the BBC, or any reputable media organisation, to help a political party of any hue by repeating their slogans for them: especially not on the front page of their news website, multiple times in a single photo.

I don’t believe the BBC is deliberately biased. Here, I think someone’s been stupid or naïve. However, it is surely not possible that nobody in the BBC understands the psychology of repetition. Where are they? What are they doing? Why aren’t they trying to counter it?

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Avaragado’s 2017 predictions

I very nearly didn’t bother this year. All my usual flim-flammery aside, like many I’m genuinely pessimistic about the future, and I’m sure I don’t need to explain why. Oddly, and happily, when I decided to conjure up some predictions from somewhere and got on with it, I found my mood lifting a notch or two.

Dunkirk spirit. Keep buggering on. Listen very carefully, I shall say zis only once. You’ve gotta laugh, haven’t you? World’s gone mad.

Here we are, then: predictions for 2017. I’m trying to be optimistic.

News

  1. Civilisation does not end in a nuclear fireball or similar Trump-triggered catastrophe.
  2. 2017 is not the warmest year globally on record, causing morons to assert that climate change isn’t happening, etc.
  3. Mike Pence becomes Acting President after invoking Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution with the help of his chums in Congress. (Pedants: under this clause, Trump would remain president but have no powers.)
  4. Trump resigns as president. (Pedants: see above as to why this is not the same prediction as that.)
  5. Self-inflated gaffe balloon Boris Johnson loses his job as foreign secretary.
  6. Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency and oh god will this never end.

Sport

  1. Olympics! Los Angeles is awarded the 2024 summer games.
  2. Formula One! Lewis Hamilton wins the World Drivers’ Championship.
  3. Cricket! India win the ICC Champions Trophy.
  4. Ladygolf! Europe win the Solheim Cup.
  5. Soggy oars! Cambridge win the women’s university boat race.
  6. Sandy balls! Portugal win the men’s FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup. Yes it’s a real thing.

Science and technology

  1. Samsung drops the 3.5mm headphone jack from at least some of its phones.
  2. The Nobel prize for physics is awarded for the confirmation of the existence of gravitational waves.
  3. A self-driving Uber kills someone. (Pedants: when the software is in charge, whether or not there is a person “supervising” in the driver’s seat.)
  4. Google buys Slack.
  5. Apple’s next major release of the iPad (probably called iPad Pro 2) includes both 3D Touch and a haptic engine that tries to make typing on a screen feel more like typing on a keyboard.
  6. A major ISP is hacked and the internet browsing habits of its users are published online.

Entertainment

  1. Oscar for Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Fences.
  2. Oscar for Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Jackie.
  3. Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay: Eric Heisserer, Arrival.
  4. Oscar for Best Picture: Fences.
  5. Channel 4 announces that the Great British Bake Off will be hosted by Jo Brand.
  6. In the second Fantastic Beasts film, the role of Dumbledore will be played by Hugh Laurie.

Celebrity somethingwatch

This year I’m predicting different things for different people.

  1. living: Betty White, still going strong at the end of 2017.
  2. out of the closet: Cristiano Ronaldo, probably via accidental Instagram.
  3. hired: Brooklyn Beckham, as a magazine photographer or similar.
  4. fired: Jack Dorsey, as CEO of Twitter and/or Stripe.
  5. retired: John Humphrys, as presenter of BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
  6. expired: Henry Kissinger, please and thank you.

Guest submissions

Attendees of the ceremonial lunch that heralds these predictions were invited to suggest their own. By this stage, some drink had been taken.

  1. Andy H – Celebrity deathwatch: David Attenborough.
  2. Andy C –  the UK does not invoke Article 50.
  3. Andy C – Jeremy Corbyn is prime minister.
  4. Andy C – Celebrity deathwatch: Harry Styles.
  5. Andrew M – Scotland votes to leave the UK.
  6. Andrew M – Celebrity deathwatch: Princess Anne.
  7. Chris W – Some chunk of wall of some kind is built between Mexico and the US.
  8. Chris W – Celebrity deathwatch: Nicholas Lyndhurst.

Join us this time next year, as we fend off mutant humans and chimps on horseback from the shattered remains of the internet, to learn how pessimistic we should’ve been instead.

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Avaragado’s 2016 predictions – results

Well.

That was a year.

Six hours from 2017 in glorious GMT, and we’re all still refreshing our browsers to see which of the dwindling band of celebs are extraordinarily keen to avoid the Hootenanny. As the fireworks tick west, it’s time to review my predictions for 2016.

The well-lubricated Chris Walsh adjudicated, as ever, and his comments are in square brackets.

News

  1. In the thrilling Euro referendum that I hope to god happens in 2016 so we don’t have to suffer another whole year of it, the tedious British public votes 53% to 47% (±1%) to remain in the EU. [51.9% to 48.1% to LEAVE – 0pt]
  2. Bacon-worrier David Cameron resigns as prime minister. [1pt]
  3. Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election. [Optimism – I remember that! 0pt]
  4. 2016 is the warmest year globally on record. [“2016 will very likely be the hottest year on record and a new high for the third year in a row, according to the UN” – 1pt]
  5. The Bank of England leaves interest rates at 0.5% all year. [Down to 0.25% – 0pt]
  6. The price of oil doesn’t go above $50 a barrel all year. [The current price of WTI crude oil as of December 19, 2016 is $51.72 per barrel. – 0pt]

Sport

  1. In the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Team GB win 20±2 gold medals in total. [27 – 0pt]
  2. In the Euro 2016 football championships, England finish in the top 4. [Didn’t make it to quarter finals – 0pt]
  3. Oxford win the men’s University Boat Race. [Cambridge! – 0pt]
  4. HRH Prince Ali Al Hussein is elected the next president of FIFA. [Gianni Infantino – 0pt]
  5. Wales win the Rugby Union Six Nations. [England – 0pt]
  6. Europe retain the Ryder Cup. [USA – 0pt]

Science and technology

  1. The iPhone 7 (pedants: or whatever Apple calls the next major iPhone revision) has no 3.5mm headphone jack. [True! – 1pt]
  2. Apple releases a Mac with an A-branded (ARM, not Intel) processor. [Not yet – 0pt]
  3. Google buys Signal. [Don’t think so… – 0pt]
  4. A major security breach at the NHS leaks hundreds of thousands of patient details. [“An NHS trust has been fined £180,000 after a sexual health facility in central London accidentally leaked the personal details of 780 HIV clinic attendees by email.” … out by several factors of 10 – 0pt]
  5. Physicists confirm the first evidence for gravitational waves. [1pt]
  6. An out-of-control drone causes a major incident (eg a collision with an aircraft). [“Drone hits British Airways plane as it prepares to land at Heathrow” – 18th April 2016. Not sure that counts as a major incident, but the point is yours – 1pt]

Entertainment

  1. To save money, the BBC decides to close BBC Four. [Still there – 0pt]
  2. Peter Capaldi announces he is to leave Doctor Who. [Still there – 0pt]
  3. Oscar for Best Picture: The Revenant. [1pt]
  4. Oscar for Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian. [Alejandro González Iñárritu, Revenant – 0pt]
  5. Oscar for Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. [Leonardo Di Caprio, Revenant – 0pt]
  6. Oscar for Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room. [1pt]

You’re celebrity fired

  1. Piers Morgan leaves Good Morning Britain. [Still there – 0pt]
  2. Marissa Meyer leaves Yahoo. [Still there – 0pt]
  3. Louis van Gaal leaves Manchester United. [1pt]
  4. Chris Evans (not that one) leaves the role of Editor of the Daily Telegraph. [Still there – 0pt]
  5. Philip Hammond leaves the role of Foreign Secretary. [Now Chancellor … 1pt]
  6. Sir Lord Alan Sugar leaves The Apprentice. [Still there – 0pt]

[2016 … a turbulent year for sure, and now confirmed as utterly unpredictable. What a year to abandon the “Celebrity Deathwatch” round though!  9 out of a possible 30, which gives a meagre (if nicely round) 30%.]

Coming soon: oh god, what next?

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Idiocy and expertise

I have – once or twice – been known to refer to Michael Gove as a “dangerous idiot”. In my opinion he is Dunning-Kruger in living, breathing, frightening action in one of the highest offices of state. He inserted his 1950s oar to screw up education and is now Lord Chancellor. He has somehow not yet screwed this up, probably because most of his changes seem to have been reversals of the chum-brained policies of his colleague Chris Grayling. Those two, plus Boris Johnson and Iain Duncan Smith, make up the Four Horsemen of the Brexocalypse: I’ll leave it up to you to parcel out all the roles, but Grayling’s definitely Gummo.

Gove was interviewed last night about the EU referendum, and made this statement: “I think people in this country have had enough of experts.”

gove-cartoon

What Gove means, of course, is that he has had enough of experts. Specifically, experts who disagree with him. Atop his Dunning-Kruger pinnacle Gove is unaware of how unaware he is and, by the thundering power of his own ego wrapped in his child-catcher ice-cream politeness and seduced by his own connections, he has decided he knows more than they do. He believes he is more expert than the experts.

Oh, but this kind of expert is fine by Gove, I expect.

Specialists with years, decades of training and experience, who live and breathe their subject: nope, but for one exception. The only knowledge he respects is political knowledge. To read a brief, to answer questions, to spin, to dodge, to answer without answering, to make small talk, to win elections.

This explains how he screwed up education, and how he will likely go on to screw up justice – or worse. Empirical understanding valued less than ideology and self-belief. He won, therefore he is correct.

Gove and his ilk are no different than Icke and his, bar a few lizards. It is dangerous idiocy let loose in power, a toddler diving into a ball pit of people’s lives.

2016. What a year. A year that might end with the four horsemen in charge here, and Biff Tannen over there. God help us all. No wonder everyone’s dying.

Time to rewatch Being There.

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Avaragado’s 2016 predictions

Hello again. Pull up a pixel. Dismantle that podcast. Relax your weary mince pie repository. Pay heed, oh gentle reader, for Avaragado has rattled his brain to wiggle out the earwax of foretelling and is pleased to interpret the oily runes ambiguously below.

Those of you familiar with this annual nonsense will spot a new category. I’ve retired Celebrity Deathwatch as the predictions started to come true and, quite frankly, The Medusa Touch still gives me the shivers (WHIP PAN to polystyrene rubble falling onto gurning worshippers). In its place, You’re Celebrity Fired.

Here they all are. Perhaps the rain will have stopped by this time next year. Perhaps.

News

  1. In the thrilling Euro referendum that I hope to god happens in 2016 so we don’t have to suffer another whole year of it, the tedious British public votes 53% to 47% (±1%) to remain in the EU.
  2. Bacon-worrier David Cameron resigns as prime minister.
  3. Hillary Clinton wins the US presidential election.
  4. 2016 is the warmest year globally on record.
  5. The Bank of England leaves interest rates at 0.5% all year.
  6. The price of oil doesn’t go above $50 a barrel all year.

Sport

  1. In the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Team GB win 20±2 gold medals in total.
  2. In the Euro 2016 football championships, England finish in the top 4.
  3. Oxford win the men’s University Boat Race.
  4. HRH Prince Ali Al Hussein is elected the next president of FIFA.
  5. Wales win the Rugby Union Six Nations.
  6. Europe retain the Ryder Cup.

Science and technology

  1. The iPhone 7 (pedants: or whatever Apple calls the next major iPhone revision) has no 3.5mm headphone jack.
  2. Apple releases a Mac with an A-branded (ARM, not Intel) processor.
  3. Google buys Signal.
  4. A major security breach at the NHS leaks hundreds of thousands of patient details.
  5. Physicists confirm the first evidence for gravitational waves.
  6. An out-of-control drone causes a major incident (eg a collision with an aircraft).

Entertainment

  1. To save money, the BBC decides to close BBC Four.
  2. Peter Capaldi announces he is to leave Doctor Who.
  3. Oscar for Best Picture: The Revenant.
  4. Oscar for Best Director: Ridley Scott, The Martian.
  5. Oscar for Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl.
  6. Oscar for Best Actress: Brie Larson, Room.

You’re celebrity fired

  1. Piers Morgan leaves Good Morning Britain.
  2. Marissa Meyer leaves Yahoo.
  3. Louis van Gaal leaves Manchester United.
  4. Chris Evans (not that one) leaves the role of Editor of the Daily Telegraph.
  5. Philip Hammond leaves the role of Foreign Secretary.
  6. Sir Lord Alan Sugar leaves The Apprentice.

And that, my friends, is that. I wonder if I’ll post anything else on this blog before next year’s results?

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