Tag Archives: predictions

Avaragado and friends predict 2026

Here’s the second of my annual posts, in which my friends and I offer ridiculous predictions for the year ahead. This NYE, Chef was “working” and could only spare two hours, a beer and half a bottle of wine with us before scootering back to his laptop. AndyC extricated himself from his family for the second half of the extravaganza.

To liven up the occasion, we decided to invite ChatGPT to weigh in too. It knows that I’m David and has a history of my chat sessions, but no information about anyone else. I’ve lightly edited the formatting and chopped extraneous stuff. I told it these are predictions for 2026, but it gave me later dates occasionally. The first 4 questions used GPT-5.2; then it dropped to GPT-5 Mini. You can see the difference in tone.

Buckle up.

Predictions

  • Chef: When will David finally get a new job?
    • Melanie: April
    • Chef: June
    • Chris: May
    • Adrian: April
    • Louise: March
    • David: May
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction: Late spring to early summer — think April–June.
      • It comes after a period of mild frustration where it feels like nothing’s moving, then suddenly two things land close together: one safe-but-meh, one that’s actually interesting. You take the second.
      • It’s not a total career pivot, but is a shift in emphasis — more people-facing / creative / problem-solving than your last role, and a noticeably healthier work culture.
      • Bonus prophecy: you’ll look back later in the year and say, “Thank God that earlier thing didn’t work out.”
  • Chef: Chris says he’ll have a “vegetarian, dry January”. When will he give up? (Two January dates permitted: first for meat, second for booze. Melanie will judge.)
    • Melanie: 2, 2
    • Chef: 5, 7
    • Chris: 30, 30
    • Adrian: 2, 2
    • Louise: 10, 3
    • David: 30, 2
    • AndyC: 1, 1
    • ChatGPT:
      • Ah yes, the Veganuary + Dry January hubris combo. A classic. 🔮🥕
      • Prediction:
        • Dry January collapses first: Friday 17 January (socially induced; someone says “just one pint”).
        • Vegetarian January limps on slightly longer, but falls on Tuesday 21 January, almost certainly via a sausage roll that “doesn’t really count”.
      • He will insist — sincerely — that this is still basically a success.
  • David: When will Keir Starmer stop being Prime Minister? (“Never” means “he’ll still be PM into 2027”)
    • Melanie: March
    • Chef: Never
    • Chris: Never
    • Adrian: May
    • Louise: Never
    • David: June
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction:
      • Keir Starmer does make it into 2027, but doesn’t enjoy the full journey.
      • My guess is a late-2027 handover rather than a dramatic collapse — pressure from within rather than a sudden external shock. Think “time for a refresh” energy, not a coup. He leaves having been competent, steady, and slightly unloved.
      • If he does go earlier, the danger zone is mid-to-late 2026, after a rough patch where “safe pair of hands” stops being enough.
  • Chris: In which month will the usual suspects visit a restaurant the majority of us haven’t visited before? (This is Chris’s attempt to get us to go to new places.)
    • Melanie: June
    • Chef: May
    • Chris: August
    • Adrian: May
    • Louise: February
    • David: June
    • AndyC: We won’t
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction: September.
      • Reasoning (very scientific):
        • Winter = habits + comfort food
        • Spring = good intentions, zero follow-through
        • Summer = people away / weather excuses
        • Early autumn is when someone finally says “Right, I’ve booked it” and no one has the energy to argue
      • It’ll be described afterward as “actually really good, we should do that more”, and then you won’t, for at least six months.
  • Chef: When will Russell T Davies and his newly revealed squeeze publicly break up?
    • Melanie: September
    • Chef: October
    • Chris: Late September
    • Adrian: They won’t
    • Louise: They won’t
    • David: July
    • AndyC: March
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction:
      • 🔮 No public breakup in 2026. In fact, if they do part ways publicly, the most likely window is late 2027, around November/December, when either the intensity of work projects or the age‑gap dynamics might show strain.
      • This isn’t based on concrete facts about their personal situation (there are no confirmed plans for a split in the reliable reporting yet) — it’s more of a tongue‑in‑cheek New Year’s prediction based on the idea that new relationships often get past an initial year milestone before people reassess publicly.
      • So: probably still together through 2026, with a “maybe” toward late 2027 (and even that is speculative). 💫
  • Louise: When will an AI be legally recognised as a person? (Any jurisdiction counts)
    • Melanie: October
    • Chef: It won’t
    • Chris: September
    • Adrian: It won’t
    • Louise: September
    • David: It won’t
    • AndyC: It won’t
    • ChatGPT:
      • 🔮 Prediction: 2032–2036, and it won’t be full “personhood”.
      • It’ll happen sideways, not head‑on:
        • A small, tech‑forward jurisdiction (or a court within one)
        • Limited status like “electronic legal person” or “autonomous agent”
        • Rights narrowly framed around contracts, liability, or ownership, not human rights
      • Think: “This AI can be sued / can hold assets / needs a legal wrapper” rather than “this AI can vote”.
      • Bonus prophecy: everyone will argue whether it “counts”, and lawyers will say yes, philosophers no, and headlines absolutely.
  • Adrian: How many countries will boycott Eurovision?
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chef: 1
    • Chris: 4
    • Adrian: 14
    • Louise: 8
    • David: 7
    • AndyC: 7
    • ChatGPT:
      • Prediction for 2026:
      • 🎤 Five countries will boycott Eurovision.
  • Adrian: How many medals of any colour will Team GB win at the Winter Olympics (excluding Paralympics)?
    • Melanie: 4
    • Chef: 3 (1 gold, 2 bronze)
    • Chris: 5
    • Adrian: 6
    • Louise: 1
    • David: 3
    • AndyC: 2
    • ChatGPT:
      • 🇬🇧 Prediction: 2–6 total medals (any colour) in February 2026.
      • Why this range?
        • Historically, Team GB has never won more than five medals at a Winter Olympics — that happened at both Sochi 2014 and Pyeongchang 2018. They won two medals in Beijing 2022
        • The team’s strongest prospects include curling, snowboard (Mia Brookes), and freestyle events where podium chances have grown, plus improved competitiveness across some other sliding and skiing events. 
        • Realistic optimism from commentators and some world‑cup success suggest challenging the old record is possible — but not guaranteed. 
      • So:
        • Low end: 2 medals (similar to 2022), if key contenders just miss out.
        • High end: 6 medals, if several British athletes overperform and a couple sneak into the podium in new events.
      • I’d lean toward 4 medals as my best guess — enough to be a strong performance by Winter standards for Team GB.
  • Melanie: Who will be named the next actor to play James Bond?
    • Melanie: Regé-Jean Page
    • Chef: Jonathan Bailey
    • Chris: Barry Keoghan
    • Adrian: Idris Elba
    • Louise: Cynthia Erivo
    • David: Jonathan Bailey
    • AndyC: Aaron Taylor-Johnson
    • ChatGPT:
      • 👉 Best prediction right now:
      • If the announcement happens in 2026–2027, the next Bond is most likely to be Callum Turner or Aaron Taylor‑Johnson — with Turner currently leading in the speculation stakes.
  • Celebrity deaths:
    • Melanie: Joe Biden, Al Pacino, Ariana Grande
    • Chef: Pauline Quirke
    • Chris: Timothée Chalamet, Elton John
    • Adrian: Katie Price
    • Louise: Donald Trump
    • David: Donald Trump, Queen Camilla
    • AndyC: Donald Trump, Elon Musk
    • ChatGPT: I didn’t ask – I don’t want my account flagged

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado and friends predict 2025

Our New Year’s Steve lunch took place as usual at the Town and Gown (né B Bar), after which I drunk-footed it to Stratford via rail-replacement bus and train to see in the new year in our nation’s capital but nowhere near the fireworks. The following day, due to a tree on the line and definitely unrelated to Stan’s VR headset and 3D printer, I returned in the evening via National Express coaches through Stansted. Hence the unseemly delay with these predictions, which are accompanied this year by a light cough.

Predictions

  • Chef: When will the next Gaza ceasefire be?
    • Adrian: none
    • Louise: Trump will claim there is one, but there isn’t
    • AndyC: There may be ceasefires but they don’t count as everyone will keep shooting
    • Chef: March
    • Chris: “Half-past four”
    • Melanie: February
    • Jo: Christmas Day temporary ceasefire
    • AndyH: There won’t be any that work
    • David: none
  • Chris: Who/whom/what will be the next casualty of the high street?
    • Adrian: Fopp
    • Louise: Costa
    • AndyC: WHSmith, Next
    • Chef: Prezzo
    • Chris: Zizzi
    • Melanie: Fat Face
    • Jo: Miss Selfridge
    • AndyH: WHSmith
    • David: WHSmith
  • David: When will Trump sack/get rid of Musk?
    • Adrian: October
    • Louise: He won’t
    • AndyC: He won’t
    • Chef: September
    • Chris: January
    • Melanie: January, but Musk won’t accept it
    • Jo: December
    • AndyH: Q1
    • David: January
  • Louise: Will Musk become a trillionaire?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • Chef: No, $100bn
    • Chris: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Jo: No
    • AndyH: Yes
    • David: No
  • Chef: How many press secretaries will Trump get through by the end of 2025?
    • Adrian: 1
    • Louise: 2
    • AndyC: 3
    • Chef: 2
    • Chris: 1
    • Melanie: 3
    • Jo: 5
    • AndyH: 3
    • David: 2
  • Adrian: Will Keir Starmer still be PM on the last day of 2025?
    • Adrian: no
    • Louise: yes
    • AndyC: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • Jo: yes
    • AndyH: yes
    • David: yes
  • Jo: When/will the wars/fighting in Ukraine/Gaza/Syria/Lebanon end?
    • Adrian: Ukraine still at war; same for Gaza
    • Louise: Ukraine and Gaza “going to drag on”
    • AndyC: “They will all form a single state in rebellion against the rest of the world”
    • Chef: Ukraine: January; Syria “will remain not at war”; Gaza: September; Lebanon: September
    • Chris: July
    • Melanie: No
    • Jo: Never; maybe Christmas Day temporary ceasefire
    • AndyH: Syria/Gaza no; Ukraine “cold war” but no real end, with a de-escalation
    • David: Everything will drag on
  • David: How many books will Anthony Camber sell in 2025? (Everyone was told that two new books are coming and AC sold almost nothing in 2024 with no new books out.)
    • Adrian: 22
    • Louise: 7
    • AndyC: 7
    • Chef: 12
    • Chris: 43
    • Melanie: 10
    • Jo: 5000
    • AndyH: 7
    • David: 50
  • David: What will be the UK’s highest temperature?
    • Adrian: 40.2
    • Louise: 42
    • AndyC: 41
    • Chef: 38
    • Chris: 220 (200 fan)
    • Melanie: 39
    • Jo: 45
    • AndyH: 38
    • David: 39
  • Chef: Which month will Chris and Melanie sell (complete) their old house?
    • Adrian: April
    • Louise: September
    • AndyC: In November they sell the new house and move back to the old house
    • Chef: July
    • Chris: December
    • Melanie: September
    • Jo: April
    • AndyH: September
    • David: July
  • AndyC: Will the Town and Gown still be called the Town and Gown?
    • Adrian: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • AndyC: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • Jo: yes
    • AndyH: yes
    • David: yes
  • Melanie: How many bottles of wine will Chris buy at auction?
    • Adrian: 0
    • Louise: 0
    • AndyC: 0
    • Chef: 5
    • Chris: 0
    • Melanie: 6
    • Jo: 5
    • AndyH: 3
    • David: 5
  • Celebrity deaths:
    • Adrian: Chris Hoy
    • Louise: Bruce Willis
    • AndyC: Dick van Dyke, Vladimir Putin
    • Chef: Richard E Grant
    • Chris: Gloria Hunniford
    • Melanie: Katie Price
    • Jo: Someone in royalty
    • AndyH: Tom Baker
    • David: Donald Trump

See you next year!

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado’s 2024 predictions – results

You know the drill. At the tail end of 2023 we made confident/drunk predictions for 2024 and let’s now all bask in the radioactively wrong results.

My comments are in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Randoms:
    • AndyC: Virgin Galactic goes completely bust “and stops”
      • [Does not appear to have come true]
    • Chris: “Humanity lands on the moon before the end of 2024”
      • [Nope, taking “humanity” to mean “humans”]
  • David: When will the general election be?
    • Adrian: June
    • Louise: June
    • AndyC: May
    • David: May
    • Melanie: July
    • Chris: 2024
    • Chef: 2025
    • [Melanie was correct! Technically so was Chris]
  • David: Who will win the election?
    • Adrian: Labour
    • Louse: Labour
    • AndyC: Keir
    • David: Labour
    • Melanie: Labour
    • Chris: Green
    • Chef: Labour
    • [No great surprise here: yes, Chris was very drunk by this point]
  • Adrian: Does the Gaza war spread to Egypt?
    • Adrian: Yes, in June
    • Louise: No, to Lebanon maybe
    • AndyC: Both sides sign up to dual state
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Chris: “No, not before the end of January thank you”
    • Chef: Not Egypt, Syria
    • [It has not so far. Lebanon, yes, so Louise wins this one]
  • Melanie: How many states will ban Trump from standing?
    • Adrian: 5
    • Louise: 4
    • AndyC: 4
    • David: 3
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chris: 79
    • Chef: Effectively none – supreme court will overrule the bans
    • [I think Chef is closest to being right here. Chris is very much the most wrong]
  • Louise: Will there be at least one riot in the UK linked to the cost of living crisis?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No, it’ll be something else
    • Chris: “There is no cost of living crisis, everyone is rich”
    • Chef: No (too many strikes for people to get there)
    • [Riots, yes; not exactly related to the cost of living though. Melanie wins?]
  • Adrian: Who is the next US president?
    • Adrian: Michelle Obama
    • Louise: Trump
    • AndyC: Kanye West
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Elon Musk
    • Chris: Michael J Fox
    • Chef: Biden
    • [Sigh. Louise and David were correct]
  • Melanie: Who will be the most famous/damaging person to appear on the Epstein list?
    • Adrian: Barack Obama
    • Louise: Samuel L Jackson
    • AndyC: Farage
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Tom Hanks
    • Chris: Russell Brand, Bernard Cribbins
    • Chef: Bill Clinton
    • [The list includes Bill Clinton and Donald Trump: points for David and Chef]
  • Celebrity deaths
    • Adrian: The Queen, Nigel Farage
    • Louise: Joe Biden, David Attenborough
    • AndyC: Jimmy Carr
    • David: Prince Andrew, Neil Kinnock
    • Melanie: Fergie, DIonne Warwick
    • Chris: Harrison Ford
    • Chef: A Beatle, a Rolling Stone
    • [No points for anyone]

Stay tuned for 2025.

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado and friends predict 2024

Slightly depleted by Covid, which apparently no longer exists, a hardy group of six gathered at the traditional venue to celebrate the year end and commiserate the year start.

The year of oh lord 2023 is what we now must call “relatively stable,” in that the UK changed neither monarch nor prime minister and we were not confined to our homes by law (exceptions apply, eg partying while Tory).

The oncoming storm of 2024 promises much in the way of little. In a similar vein, here are the group’s predictions… please note that as is traditional, Chris participated alcoholically.

STOP PRESS: Chef has supplied his Covid-riddled predictions by sterilised means, so I’ve added them.

Predictions

  • Randoms:
    • AndyC: Virgin Galactic goes completely bust “and stops”
    • Chris: “Humanity lands on the moon before the end of 2024”
  • David: When will the general election be?
    • Adrian: June
    • Louise: June
    • AndyC: May
    • David: May
    • Melanie: July
    • Chris: 2024
    • Chef: 2025
  • David: Who will win the election?
    • Adrian: Labour
    • Louse: Labour
    • AndyC: Keir
    • David: Labour
    • Melanie: Labour
    • Chris: Green
    • Chef: Labour
  • Adrian: Does the Gaza war spread to Egypt?
    • Adrian: Yes, in June
    • Louise: No, to Lebanon maybe
    • AndyC: Both sides sign up to dual state
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Chris: “No, not before the end of January thank you”
    • Chef: Not Egypt, Syria
  • Melanie: How many states will ban Trump from standing?
    • Adrian: 5
    • Louise: 4
    • AndyC: 4
    • David: 3
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chris: 79
    • Chef: Effectively none – supreme court will overrule the bans
  • Louise: Will there be at least one riot in the UK linked to the cost of living crisis?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No, it’ll be something else
    • Chris: “There is no cost of living crisis, everyone is rich”
    • Chef: No (too many strikes for people to get there)
  • Adrian: Who is the next US president?
    • Adrian: Michelle Obama
    • Louise: Trump
    • AndyC: Kanye West
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Elon Musk
    • Chris: Michael J Fox
    • Chef: Biden
  • Melanie: Who will be the most famous/damaging person to appear on the Epstein list?
    • Adrian: Barack Obama
    • Louise: Samuel L Jackson
    • AndyC: Farage
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Tom Hanks
    • Chris: Russell Brand, Bernard Cribbins
    • Chef: Bill Clinton
  • Celebrity deaths
    • Adrian: The Queen, Nigel Farage
    • Louise: Joe Biden, David Attenborough
    • AndyC: Jimmy Carr
    • David: Prince Andrew, Neil Kinnock
    • Melanie: Fergie, DIonne Warwick
    • Chris: Harrison Ford
    • Chef: A Beatle, a Rolling Stone

See you next year!

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado’s 2023 predictions – results

Oh, you again. I write after the sun has set on another year but has not yet risen on the new, which is a very long way of saying it’s 6pm on NYE. And it’s just late enough that I’m confident a bunch of our rubbish predictions a year ago won’t suddenly come true in the last gasp. There’s always a chance of a celebrity death, I suppose.

Here now are the results, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
    • [China did not, thankfully]
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Putin did not, sadly]
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
    • [According to Wikipedia: Arctic Monkeys, Guns N’ Roses, Elton John. Chris wins!]
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
    • [It did, and is currently at its peak of 5.25%]
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
    • [He didn’t.]
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
    • [They didn’t, for no reason anyone can fathom except the standard Tories innit]
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
    • [Not so far. None of us predicted Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation]
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Amazingly, it’s not going to happen]
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy
    • [Finally, Kissinger died]

Stay tuned for 2024.

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado and friends predict 2023

Well, 2022 was a year, wasn’t it? Two monarchs and about thirty-seven prime ministers. Still we crumble on, watching those Brexit benefits pile up on street corners.

On New Year’s Eve the usual suspects plus special guests gathered at the Town and Gown as usual to drink away the afternoon and rummage for predictions for the year ahead. Here we are, already two bottles to the wind:

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Apologies to those nominated. Some of them at least.

1 Comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado’s 2022 predictions – results

And so the Earth completes another ellipse around the Sun, and New Year’s Day arrives along with its traditions: the concert from Vienna with its polkas and waltzes, the wondering which shops will be open, and the results of last year’s predictions.

Here they are again, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Chef: Still Boris Johnson this time next year?
    • Chef: yes
    • Melanie: nope, he’ll be gone by March
    • David: no, July
    • [I believe Chris was too far gone to submit an opinion for this one. Melanie and I were both right – and Johnson did announce his resignation in July, although he stayed PM until September. None of us foresaw the ensuing chaos of Truss]
  • Chris wanted it on record for some reason that the four of us “will go out to eat at a vegan restaurant in 2022”
    • [Yes, we did]
  • David: Will the dear old queen make it to 2023?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • David: yes
    • Chef: no, she’ll pop off in October
    • [Chef was almost spot on! She died in September]
  • Chef thinks the James Webb Space Telescope deployment will fail in some way and it’ll be toast
    • [Chef was wrong. It’s fine, and producing amazing images]
  • Chris: Will ARM be bought by Nvidia?
    • Chris: yes, September
    • Melanie: yes, August
    • David: yes, July
    • Chef: yes, June
    • [None of us got this right. The takeover was abandoned]
  • Chris: Will WH Smith still exist on the high street?
    • Chris: no
    • Melanie: no
    • David: yes
    • Chef: yes
    • [No idea why we cared about WH Smith enough to predict its future. It still exists, so Chef and I are both right]
  • Melanie: Will Adrian have a job?
    • Consensus: nope
    • [Correct]
  • Melanie: Will Prince Andrew lose that civil case against him?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • David: no
    • Chef: yes
    • [Technically he settled, deciding to pay millions to someone he claimed he’d never met. Seems legit]
  • David: What will be the name of the most recent major Covid variant?
    • Chris: Ting-tong
    • Melanie: Mut (Egyptian hieroglyph, Vulture)
    • David: Psi
    • Chef: Alpha-gamma
    • [It still seems to be Omicron]

In a bit: our predictions for 2023.

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado and friends predict 2022

I mean, anything could happen. This Tory Cinematic Universe in which we’re all background artistes, with the stars anchored wide-legged and slack-jawed beside poles surrounded by broken crockery, continues its relentless storyline of implausibility and poor gags.

An exclusive coterie of four – me, Chef, Chris and Melanie – booked the inside of a barrel at the Town and Gown for lunch on New Year’s Eve to resurrect the tradition interrupted in 2020 by the thing. We slung together some random half-arsed predictions for 2022 after some wine and cocktails, and present them to you below, after the visual interlude. I apologise in advance.

Predictions

  • Chef: Still Boris Johnson this time next year?
    • Chef: yes
    • Melanie: nope, he’ll be gone by March
    • David: no, July
  • Chris wanted it on record for some reason that the four of us “will go out to eat at a vegan restaurant in 2022”
  • David: Will the dear old queen make it to 2023?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: yes
    • David: yes
    • Chef: no, she’ll pop off in October
  • Chef thinks the James Webb Space Telescope deployment will fail in some way and it’ll be toast
  • Chris: Will ARM be bought by Nvidia?
    • Chris: yes, September
    • Melanie: yes, August
    • David: yes, July
    • Chef: yes, June
  • Chris: Will WH Smith still exist on the high street?
    • Chris: no
    • Melanie: no
    • David: yes
    • Chef: yes
  • Melanie: Will Adrian have a job?
    • Consensus: nope
  • Melanie: Will Prince Andrew lose that civil case against him?
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • David: no
    • Chef: yes
  • David: What will be the name of the most recent major Covid variant?
    • Chris: Ting-tong
    • Melanie: Mut (Egyptian hieroglyph, Vulture)
    • David: Psi
    • Chef: Alpha-gamma

1 Comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado’s 2021 predictions – results

And so we enter season 3 of 2020, in which the writers dangle the prospect of a return to normality while placing several Chekhov-shaped revolvers on sundry mantelpieces. Before the new year overwhelms us, let’s revisit our predictions for 2021. As I could and can no longer be bothered to think of anything in advance, we came up with ideas on the fly – in a Zoom call, due to lockdown 3.

Here’s a cut-and-paste of the predictions we made, with commentary…

  • Louise: Joe Biden dies before end of 2021
    • Technically, no.
  • Will Trump vacate the White House willingly?
    • Group consensus: yes
    • Well. Not sure “willingly” is the word, given he instigated an attempted coup, refused to attend Biden’s inauguration, and still claims the election was rigged. But he didn’t stage a dirty protest in the Oval Office (as far as we know) and did fly off to Mar-a-Lago without the need for a straitjacket so maybe this is a yes?
  • Who will replace Boris Johnson, because surely he’s toast in 2021?
    • Chef: nobody – he’ll stay
      • Correct!
    • Adrian: Gove
      • Nope. Though Gove is now suspiciously quiet and lying in wait
    • David: Priti Patel, because we haven’t suffered enough
      • Nope. Don’t rule her out for 2022 though
    • Chris: Craig from Big Brother 1
      • I think Chris was drunk by now
  • Tokyo Olympics?
    • Won’t happen – Chef, Melanie, Chris
      • Wrong
    • Will happen – Adrian
      • Correct!
    • Will happen, but cut down – David, Louise
      • Correct, even more so – no spectators allowed
  • Glastonbury?
    • Will happen – Chris
      • Nope, although there was a kind of pretend Glastonbury
    • Won’t happen – Chef, Melanie, Adrian, David, Louise
      • Correct
  • When will the Bond film get released?
    • November – Melanie, David
      • Wrong
    • August – Chef
      • Wrong
    • September – Adrian
      • Correct!
    • July virtually – Louise
      • Wrong
    • April – Chris
      • Wrong
  • When will you personally be vaccinated?
    • Louise – July
    • Melanie – June
    • Chris – he won’t get it (I think he meant he wouldn’t be invited, not that he’d refuse)
    • Chef – June
    • Adrian – April
    • David – May
    • We were all massively pessimistic here. I was vaccinated in February, April, and October
  • When will we as a group go for a proper dinner together again?
    • Louise – June
    • Melanie – August
    • Chris – March
    • Chef – April
    • Adrian – May
    • David – May
    • It was April, for Melanie’s birthday – Chef was right. Although we were limited to 6 people, so Chef wasn’t actually there. There are some photos below.
  • Will anyone on this call leave the UK in 2021? (“UK” = UK + Scotland in case Scotland has ejected)
    • Louise – yes – Lynda will go to Spain ASAP
    • Melanie – yes, Lynda
    • Chris – yes, Lynda and Chris/Melanie
    • Chef – yes, Chris/Melanie, himself
    • Adrian – no
    • David – yes, Lynda
    • Pretty Sure Lynda went to Spain at some point this year. I don’t think any of the rest of us left the country.
  • In which month of 2021 will the Duke and Duchess of Sussex cease to be duke and duchess?
    • Louise – not at all
    • Melanie – October
    • Chris – not at all
    • Chef – not at all
    • Adrian – June
    • David – not at all
    • They remain duke and duchess.
  • Wimbledon?
    • Louise – July
    • Melanie – July but no crowd
    • Chris – won’t happen
    • Chef – August
    • Adrian – July
    • David – July but with smaller crowds
    • I was closest here. Crowds were limited until the last couple of days. Amazingly Stan got a grounds pass for the final Saturday, so we were there. There are some photos below.
  • This gathering next NYE?
    • Chris: all of us, evening meal, posh hotel in London – specifically, The Ritz
      • Very nope
    • Chef: Town and Gown (not that one), lunchtime, but he thinks it’s a bit optimistic
      • Correct! Photos below

Photos!

Leave a comment

Filed under Random

Avaragado’s 2020 predictions – results

WELL.

It’s safe to say we missed the main story of the year. Our imagined 4K teal and orange future conked out at 256×192 with colour clash, just about rendering a Pride flag before the rainbow was co-opted by the NHS. We all learned valuable lessons, including:

  • Politicians, media and public in the UK truly don’t know what “exponential growth” means
  • Driving for an hour to Barnard Castle is a perfectly acceptable way to test your eyesight
  • Despite everything, they actually would keep reopening Jurassic Park
  • Government can rule by decree, and neither the media nor the public nor MPs are too bothered by that

To the, uh, results.

For 2020’s predictions I asked a set of questions of the attendees of our very agreeable lunch, and gathered each person’s answers. Here they are again, with emoji ✅ ❌ scoring.

Politics

  1. Who will be the leader of the main UK political parties (Con, Lab, LD, SNP) on December 25, 2020?
    • Melanie: Boris Johnson ✅, Daniel Zeichner ❌, Layla Moran ❌, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • Chris: Boris Johnson ✅, Billy Bragg ❌, Caroline Flack ❌, Jimmy McSporran ❌
    • Chef: Boris Johnson ✅, Keir Starmer ✅, Jo Swinson ❌, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • Andy H: Boris Johnson ✅, Keir Starmer ✅, Ed Davey ✅, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • Andy C: Boris Johnson ✅, Rebecca Long-Bailey ❌, Ed Davey ✅, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
    • David: Boris Johnson ✅, Keir Starmer ✅, Ed Davey ✅, Nicola Sturgeon ✅
  2. Brexit! Will the UK extend the transition period beyond December 2020? If so, until when? If not, will the transition end with or without a deal?
    • Melanie: yes ❌, until a table is booked at Milliways
    • Chris: yes ❌, until the end of time
    • Chef: no ✅, and there’ll be no deal ❌
    • Andy H: yes ❌, for three months
    • Andy C: yes ❌, until end of January 2021
    • David: yes ❌, until end of 2021
  3. Will Scotland have an independence referendum in 2020? If so, what’s the result?
    • Melanie: no ✅; it’ll be talked about, but that’s it ✅
    • Chris: yes ❌; no score after extra time
    • Chef: no ✅
    • Andy H: no ✅
    • Andy C: no ✅
    • David: no ✅; it’ll be scheduled for 2021 ❌
  4. Who will be the Democrat nominee against Trump in the November 2020 election, and what will be the result of that election?
    • Melanie: RBG ❌; Democrat win ✅
    • Chris: The Littlest Hobo ❌; Trump win ❌
    • Chef: Elizabeth Warren ❌; Trump win ❌
    • Andy H: Elizabeth Warren ❌; Trump win ❌
    • Andy C: Hillary Clinton ❌; Trump win ❌
    • David: want Elizabeth Warren (score me on this one) ❌, fear Joe Biden; Democrat win ✅
    • [Correct answer: Joe Biden; Democrat win]

Entertainment

  1. How many Oscar nominations will Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker receive? And how many wins? Guess categories for bonus points.
    • Melanie: 4 ❌, 1 ❌, VFX ✅
    • Chris: 3 ✅, 3 ❌, Best lesbian kiss not shown in Shanghai ❌
    • Chef: 2 ❌, 0 ✅
    • Andy H: 2 ❌, 0 ✅, VFX ✅
    • Andy C: 4 ❌, 0 ✅
    • David: 5 ❌, 2 ❌, VFX ✅
    • [Correct answer: 3, 0, Best Original Score, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing]
  2. Which country will come first at Eurovision 2020? And where will the UK finish?
    • Melanie: Putin ❌; bottom ❌
    • Chris: Central African Republic ❌; 30th ❌
    • Chef: Norway ❌; 2nd from bottom ❌
    • Andy H: Denmark ❌; bottom ❌
    • Andy C: Ireland ❌; bottom ❌
    • David: Australia ❌; 18th ❌
    • [Correct answer: it didn’t take place]
  3. Who will be announced, if anyone, as the next James Bond?
    • Melanie: Robert Pattinson ❌
    • Chris: Hermione Granger ❌
    • Chef: Daniel Radcliffe ❌
    • Andy H: no announcement ✅
    • Andy C: Jodie Comer ❌
    • David: no announcement ✅
  4. What will be the highest audience for an episode of Doctor Who series 12?
    • Melanie: 8.7m ❌
    • Chris: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Chef: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Andy H: 8m ❌ but closest
    • Andy C: 9.6m ❌
    • David: 8.5m ❌
    • [Correct answer: 6.89m]
  5. How many Razzies will the Cats movie receive?
    • Melanie: 5 ❌
    • Chris: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Chef: too drunk to answer ❌
    • Andy H: 3 ❌
    • Andy C: 4 ❌
    • David: 5 ❌
    • [Correct answer: 6]

Sport

  1. How many gold/silver/bronze medals will Team GB win at the Summer Olympics in Tokyo?
    • Melanie: 73 total ❌
    • Chris: 69 bronze ❌
    • Chef: 24 gold, 36 silver, 12 bronze ❌
    • Andy H: 50 total ❌
    • Andy C: 65 total ❌
    • David: 60 total ❌
    • [Correct answer: they didn’t take place]

There you go.

Leave a comment

Filed under Random