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Avaragado’s 2012 predictions – results

As usual the cider-enhanced Chris Walsh has cast a rheumy eye over the predictions I made a year ago and awarded the marks as he saw fit. Adjudications and correct answers in square brackets.

News

  1. It will be announced that the Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant. [1pt]
  2. Ed Miliband will be replaced as leader of the Labour party. [0pt]
  3. The US presidential election will be between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Obama will be re-elected. [1pt]
  4. At least one country will leave the euro. [0pt]
  5. Boris Johnson will be re-elected as Mayor of London. [1pt]
  6. There will be an earthquake in the UK of magnitude 4.0 or above on the Richter scale. (I’m only using this scale as it’s the one used on the Wikipedia page for UK earthquakes.) [0pt]

[Score: 3/6]

Sport

  1. Great Britain & Northern Ireland will win 21 gold medals at the Summer Olympics, and over 50 medals in total. [1pt: GB&NI won 29 gold and 65 in total]
  2. Great Britain & Northern Ireland will top the medal table at the Paralympics. [0pt: third, after China and Russia]
  3. Spain will win the Euro 2012 football tournament. [1pt]
  4. The United States will regain golf’s Ryder Cup. [0pt: Europe won in a very close finish]
  5. Jensen Button will regain the Formula One championship. [0pt: Sebastian Vettel]
  6. Manchester City will win the English Premier League. [1pt: with a last-minute goal on the last day of the season]

[Score: 3/6]

Science and technology

  1. Having miraculously survived 2011, Steve Ballmer will definitely be fired as Microsoft CEO. [0pt: still there!]
  2. CERN will announce the official discovery of the Higgs boson. [0.999pt, rounded up to 1pt]
  3. Apple will launch a TV. [0pt]
  4. At least one of the co-CEOs of RIM will be fired, and the company will be bought. [0pt: Jim Balsillie resigned but was not fired, and RIM wasn’t bought]
  5. The next version of the iPhone will include an NFC chip. [0pt: rumoured for the 5S]
  6. Amazon will release a free version of the Kindle. [0pt: but Chris wishes they would, as he sat on his and broke it]

[Score: 1/6]

Entertainment

  1. The 2012 season of X Factor in the UK will be the last. [0pt: nothing announced – time will tell!]
  2. In Doctor Who, the replacement for the Ponds will not be from Earth. [0pt: nothing to suggest she’s not from earth – time will tell!]
  3. Best Actress Oscar: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady. [1pt]
  4. Best Actor Oscar: Jean Dujardin, The Artist. [1pt]
  5. Best Picture Oscar: The Artist. [1pt]
  6. CNN will fire Piers Morgan. [0pt: although competing petitions to deport/refuse repatriation suggest nobody wants him]

[Score: 3/6]

Celebrity Deathwatch

  1. Former anthropology student, US evangelist Billy Graham. [alive!]
  2. Former ophthalmology student, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. [alive!]
  3. Former chemistry student, Baroness Thatcher. [alive!]
  4. Former naval cadet, Prince Philip. [alive!]
  5. Former Cassius Clay, Muhammad Ali. [alive!]
  6. Former Hitler Youth, Pope Benedict XVI. [alive!]

[Score: 0/6]

[Total score: 10/30]

Not as good as last year. I suspect I was a year early on most of the science and technology predictions. And my celebrity deathwatch category maintains its staggering 100% failure record.

Stay tuned for Avaragado’s 2013 predictions…

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Avaragado’s 2012 predictions

Now spelunked into the Brechtian caverns of history: the year of the Arab Spring, the deaths of several prominent nutjobs, the end of the Screws, the looting of cheap sportswear, the Royal Day Off, the Occupy tent sale, and, of course, what is believed to be Sir Paul McCartney’s 49th or 50th marriage; estimates vary. And what will 2012 bring forth? Here’s your exclusive guide.

News

  1. It will be announced that the Duchess of Cambridge is pregnant.
  2. Ed Miliband will be replaced as leader of the Labour party.
  3. The US presidential election will be between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Obama will be re-elected.
  4. At least one country will leave the euro.
  5. Boris Johnson will be re-elected as Mayor of London.
  6. There will be an earthquake in the UK of magnitude 4.0 or above on the Richter scale. (I’m only using this scale as it’s the one used on the Wikipedia page for UK earthquakes.)

Sport

  1. Great Britain & Northern Ireland will win 21 gold medals at the Summer Olympics, and over 50 medals in total.
  2. Great Britain & Northern Ireland will top the medal table at the Paralympics.
  3. Spain will win the Euro 2012 football tournament.
  4. The United States will regain golf’s Ryder Cup.
  5. Jensen Button will regain the Formula One championship.
  6. Manchester City will win the English Premier League.

Science and technology

  1. Having miraculously survived 2011, Steve Ballmer will definitely be fired as Microsoft CEO.
  2. CERN will announce the official discovery of the Higgs boson.
  3. Apple will launch a TV.
  4. At least one of the co-CEOs of RIM will be fired, and the company will be bought.
  5. The next version of the iPhone will include an NFC chip.
  6. Amazon will release a free version of the Kindle.

Entertainment

  1. The 2012 season of X Factor in the UK will be the last.
  2. In Doctor Who, the replacement for the Ponds will not be from Earth.
  3. Best Actress Oscar: Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady.
  4. Best Actor Oscar: Jean Dujardin, The Artist.
  5. Best Picture Oscar: The Artist.
  6. CNN will fire Piers Morgan.

Celebrity Deathwatch

  1. Former anthropology student, US evangelist Billy Graham.
  2. Former ophthalmology student, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
  3. Former chemistry student, Baroness Thatcher.
  4. Former naval cadet, Prince Philip.
  5. Former Cassius Clay, Muhammad Ali.
  6. Former Hitler Youth, Pope Benedict XVI.

I look forward to your company next New Year’s Eve when all shall be judged.

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Avaragado’s 2011 predictions – results

Adjudicated as ever by the glamorous and drunken Miss Christopher Walsh, here are the staggering results of Avaragado’s 2011 predictions. Adjudications and corrections in square brackets.

News

  1. Kate gets William’s name slightly wrong in the wedding ceremony. [0pt]
  2. The Great British Public vote No in the AV referendum. [1pt]
  3. Sarah Palin officially declares as a Republican candidate for US President. [0pt – announced in Oct that she would not be running.]
  4. At least one national UK newspaper closes by the end of the year. [1pt – News of the World]
  5. Sudan will break apart. [1pt – South Sudan became an independent state on 9 July 2011]

[Score: 3/5]

Sport

  1. Only one of the home nations qualifies for the Euro 2012 football championships. [1pt – England in; Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland are out.]
  2. Andy Murray reaches the men’s singles final of at least one Grand Slam tournament. [1pt – Beaten by Novak Djoković in the final of the Australian Open]
  3. Pyeongchang in South Korea is awarded the 2018 Winter Olympics. [1pt]
  4. New Zealand win the 2011 Rubgy Union World Cup. [1pt – defeated France 8–7 in the final]
  5. Manchester United wins the English football Premiership. [1pt – Manchester United won their 12th Premier League title and their 19th championship, beating Liverpool’s record of 18 championships set in 1990]

[Score: 5/5]

Tech

  1. Apple launches a new thinner, lighter, faster iPad model with a camera. [1pt – iPad 2 launched March 11 2011: 33% thinner, 15% lighter, twice as fast, and 2 cameras.]
  2. Yahoo sells Flickr to Google. [0pt – Flickr still owned by Yahoo, though rumours in Oct that Google was considering buying Yahoo (cutting out the middle man!)]
  3. Facebook buys Skype. [0pt – 10 May 2011, Microsoft buys Skype]
  4. There will not be a ‘Windows Phone 7 for Tablets’. [1pt]
  5. Steve Ballmer will be replaced as Microsoft CEO. [0pt – Still there.]

[Score: 2/5]

Entertainment

  1. Oscar for Best Actor: Colin Firth, for The King’s Speech. [1 p-p-p-p-p-point]
  2. Oscar for Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, for The Social Network. [0pt – Christian Bale for The Fighter]
  3. Oscar for Best Film: The Social Network. [0pt – The King’s Speech]
  4. Oscar for Best Director: Christopher Nolan for Inception. [0pt – Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech]
  5. Upstairs Downstairs returns as a regular TV series. [0.5pt – Didn’t return in 2011 but BBC1 has recommissioned six 60-minute episodes of the drama to be broadcast in 2012]

[Score: 1.5/5]

Cambridge

  1. Pembroke finish Head of the River in the May Bumps (men’s first division). [0pt – Caius 1st; Pembroke down to 5th]
  2. Cambridge win the University Boat Race. [0pt – Oxford won]
  3. Strawberry Fair takes place. [1pt – Yes]
  4. By the year’s end Cambridge’s LGBT pub is not The Bird. [0pt]
  5. The Misguided Bus actually opens. [1pt – Hurrah!]

[Score: 2/5]

Celebrity Deathwatch

  1. Margaret Thatcher [0pt – alive, though regenerated into Meryl Streep]
  2. Zsa Zsa Gabor [0pt – alive, though deficient in the leg department to the tune of one]
  3. Kirk Douglas [0pt – still alive]
  4. Michael Douglas [0pt – still alive]
  5. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia [0pt – still alive]

[Score: 0/5]

[Total score: 13.5/30]

Not bad, not bad. An 80% success rate on news and sport is very pleasing. Appearance on my deathwatch list is a guarantee of immortality, as usual.

Stay tuned for Avaragado’s 2012 predictions…

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