December 31, 2014 · 7:28 pm
Good grief, is it that time again? I’ve barely posted anything on my blog this year. Still, at today’s regular New Year’s Eve lunch official adjudicator Chris Walsh revealed just how appallingly inaccurate my 2014 predictions were. Here are the gory details – commentary etc in square brackets.
News
- ✓ In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No. [Correct!]
- ✗ Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden. [Nope: still in Russia.]
- ✗ The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader. [Nope.]
- ✓ UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. [Yes, considering the parties separately, not the combined total of the other parties.]
- ✗ An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event. [Couldn’t find anything.]
- ✗ Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail. [Nope.]
- ✗ More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather. [Thought expressbingo.org.uk would have the answer, but it seems to stop on 5th Feb 2014. www.thepaperboy.com has front pages going back to September 2014. Taking all front pages from those sites, 22 out of 96 have weather-related headlines, which is 23%. Extrapolating: nope.]
[Score: 2/7]
Sport
- ½ Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage. [Chris ignored the bit about England and awarded no points. David thinks he deserves half a point.]
- ✗ Liverpool win the FA Premier League. [Manchester City.]
- ✗ Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi. [1 gold, 1 silver, 2 bronze.]
- ✗ Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon. [Lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-final.]
- ✗ Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament. [Ireland.]
- ✗ Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series. [Third, behind Javier Gomez and Mario Mola.]
[Score: 0.5/6]
Science and technology
- ✓ Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella. [Yes, on February 4.]
- ✗ The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris. [Nope.]
- ✗ Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device. [Nope.]
- ✗ The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication. [Nope: Blue LEDs]
- ✗ Google buys Oculus VR. [In March, Facebook agreed to acquire Oculus VR.]
- ✗ Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet. [Don’t think so.]
[Score: 1/6]
Entertainment
- ✓ Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave. [Yes.]
- ✗ Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave. [Nope: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club]
- ✗ Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks. [Nope: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Emma Thompson wasn’t even nominated.]
- ✓ Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing. [Yep.]
- ✓ The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army). [A film of Dad’s Army is in production, unrelated to the BBC, but the BBC has broadcast Still Open All Hours, based on the old sitcom Open All Hours.]
- ½ In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV. [Some TOWIE woman received various bruises. Stretching the definitions of both “celebrity” and “nasty”: half a point.]
[Score: 3.5/6]
Celebrity deathwatch
- ✗ His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
- ✗ Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
- ✗ Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
- ✓ Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87 [Died September 12th]
- ✗ Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
- ✗ Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
- ✗ Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
- ✗ Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
- ✗ Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
- ✗ Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
- ✗ Wayward ex-gurner and Gazza Paul Gascoigne, 46
- ✗ Apprentice self-firing rent-a-gob Katie Hopkins, 38
[Score: 1/12]
[Total score: 8/37]
Not as good as previous years: a dismal 22%. Overall, the predictions were far too bold. But some of them were very close, in particular the Oculus VR purchase. Ah well.
Coming soon: 2015. And also, by coincidence, my predictions for 2015.
December 31, 2013 · 9:08 pm
Here they are: the 2014 predictions literally everyone hasn’t been waiting for. Please return regularly to check my progress and coincidentally bump the readership stats on my blog to make me feel better.
News
- In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No.
- Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden.
- The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader.
- UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems.
- An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event.
- Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail.
- More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather.
Sport
- Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage.
- Liverpool win the FA Premier League.
- Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
- Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon.
- Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament.
- Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series.
Science and technology
- Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella.
- The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris.
- Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device.
- The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication.
- Google buys Oculus VR.
- Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet.
Entertainment
- Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave.
- Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave.
- Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks.
- Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing.
- The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army).
- In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV.
Celebrity deathwatch
- His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
- Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
- Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
- Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87
- Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
- Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
- Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
- Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
- Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
- Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
- Wayward ex-gurner and Gazza Paul Gascoigne, 46
- Apprentice self-firing rent-a-gob Katie Hopkins, 38
Based on the pattern of previous years I’m expecting to get about 40% right. Join me this time next year to find out whether I’ve got that prediction wrong too.
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Tagged as 12 years a slave, 2014 predictions, andy murray, apple, apple tv, bbc, brazil, bruce forsyth, carly simon, chiwetel ejiofor, climate change, cnn, crystal ball, dad's army, daily express, daily mail, dancing on wolves, edward snowden, Emma Thompson, england, european parliamentary elections, fa premier league, fifa, fifa world cup, gazza, geoffrey howe, gnu, google, half a sixpence, Henry Kissinger, ian paisley, independence, international space station, iss, itu, johnny brownlee, katie hopkins, Lib Dems, liverpool, lord howe, microsoft, Nick Clegg, nobel prize, oculus vr, olympic winter games, orbital debris, oscar predictions, oscars, paul dacre, paul gascoigne, pope francis, predictions, prince philip, quantum communication, quantum computing, referendum, richard stallman, satya nadella, Saving Mr Banks, scotland, scottish independence, sitcom, six nations, sochi, sochi 2014, splash, steve ballmer, strictly come dancing, team gb, ted turner, the apprentice, tommy steele, triathlon, ukip, wales, webcam, wimbledon, winter olympics, world cup, yoko ono
December 31, 2013 · 8:32 pm
Here we are again. New Year’s Eve, fireworks, and celebrations filmed several weeks ago presented as if live TV. And most importantly, the results of my fabulous 2013 predictions – as marked by Chris Walsh, as usual. Commentary etc in square brackets.
News
- ✗ The Assad regime in Syria will fall. [Bashar al-Assad still President of Syria]
- ✓ There will be no changes in US federal gun-control laws. [Obama has called for tighter gun control, but no actual laws yet]
- ✓ The Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a human boy. [21-Jul: Duchess of Cambridge gives birth to the future king]
- ✗ At least one Tory MP will defect to UKIP. [Plenty of councillors defected, and one UKIP MEP defected to the Conservatives, but this specific prediction proved false]
- ✗ The equal marriage bill for England and Wales will pass in the Commons but not the Lords. [15-Jul: Equal marriage bill for England and Wales has passed its Third Reading in the House of Lords]
- ✓ Dangerous idiot Michael Gove will be involved in a scandal over the exam board selection process for the new EBacc exams. [07-Feb: Education Secretary to announce dramatic climbdown over plans to scrap GCSEs]
[Score: 3/6]
Sport
- ✓ Manchester United will win the FA Premier League. [22-Apr: Manchester United won their 13th Premier League title by defeating Aston Villa 3-0 at Old Trafford]
- ✗ Chelsea FC will change manager at least twice. [Only one change of manager in 2013: Benitez -> Mourinho]
- ✓ At least one British person will win a Wimbledon title. [08-Jul: Andy Murray wins Wimbledon 2013 men’s singles final with straight sets victory over Novak Djokovic]
- ✓ Mo Farah will win at least one gold medal at the World Athletics Championships. [10-Aug: Won the 10,000m. Also 16-Aug: Won 5,000m]
- ✗ Rory McIlroy will win at least two majors in golf. [Wikipedia: “McIlroy began 2013 with high aspirations, but mostly did not fare well in early tournaments… 25th place at the 2013 Masters Tournament… won the 2013 Emirates Australian Open]
- ✗ At least one footballer playing in the UK will come out as gay or bisexual. [Robbie Rogers, but he plays in the USA]
[Score: 3/6]
Science and technology
- ✓ Microsoft will buy Nokia. [03-Sep: Microsoft to buy Nokia’s mobile phone unit]
- ✗ Scientists will announce the synthesis of one or more atoms of element 119 or higher. [Ununseptium remains the most recently synthesised transuranic element, in 2010. Sapphire and Steel have been assigned]
- ✓ NASA will declare that Voyager 1 has left the solar system and entered interstellar space. [12-Sep: Voyager 1 departs to interstellar space]
- ✗ Scientists will announce the discovery of an ‘Earth twin’ – an Earth-sized exoplanet within the habitable zone of its star. [Kepler 78b is the same size as Earth, and has same proportions of iron and rock, but is so close to the sun that its year lasts 8.5 hours, rendering it a little too toasty to be habitable]
- ✓ The year will be one of the ten warmest years in the global record, and warmer than 2012, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. [13-Nov: “The year 2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since modern records began. January-September 2013 was warmer than the same period in both 2011 and 2012.” We’re catching up with Kepler 78b!]
- ✓ Archaeologists will confirm that the bones dug up in a Leicester car park are those of Richard III. [04-Feb: DNA confirms bones are king’s]
[Score: 4/6]
Entertainment
- ✗ Lincoln will receive the Oscar for Best Picture. [Feb-24: Argo]
- ✓ Daniel Day-Lewis will receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his performance in Lincoln.
- ✓ Jennifer Lawrence will receive the Oscar for Best Actress for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook.
- ✓ The 50th anniversary of Doctor Who will involve appearances (in newly filmed scenes) from at least one former Doctor. [23-Nov: Tennant and Baker T, plus future Doctor!]
- ✗ The BBC will cancel The Sky at Night (probably while pretending not to). [Still running – Maggie Aderin-Pocock announced in December 2013 as a new presenter]
- ✓ The UK entry will finish in the third quarter of the rankings (ie, top half of the bottom half) in the Eurovision Song Contest. [1pt. 18-May: 19th out of 26 puts us 73% of the way down the leader board]
[Score: 4/6]
Celebrity Deathwatch
[We decided to award half a point per death to make the scores more compatible with predictions from previous years, since I included double the usual number of names in this section. We also abandoned the idea to score based on ages.]
- ✗ Denis Healey (95)
- ✓ Nelson Mandela (94) [Died 5-Dec aged 95]
- ✗ Mickey Rooney (92)
- ✗ Nancy Reagan (91)
- ✗ Richard Attenborough (89)
- ✗ Robert Mugabe (88)
- ✗ George H. W. Bush (88)
- ✓ Richard Briers (78) [Died 17-Feb aged 79]
- ✗ Barry Humphries (78)
- ✗ Shirley MacLaine (78)
- ✗ Bill Murray (62)
- ✗ Piers Morgan (47)
[Score: 1/6]
[Total score: 15/30]
A staggering score of 50%! This makes 2013 officially my most successful year ever for predictions. And if the trend of alternating better-worse but generally rising is anything to go by, my predictions for 2014 are on course for 40%. Though I can reveal that’s not one of my official 2014 predictions, otherwise we’re adrift in a glittering sea of meta.
Anyway, return soon for the 2014 predictions in all their 40%-likely glory.
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Tagged as 2013, 2013 predictions, andy murray, archaeology, assad, barry humphries, bashar al-assad, bbc, benitez, best actor, best actress, best picture, bill murray, bisexual, chelsea, Chris Walsh, climate change, crystal ball, dangerous idiot, daniel day-lewis, david tennant, denis healey, dna, doctor who, duchess of cambridge, earth twin, element 119, equal marriage, equal marriage bill, eurovision song contest, fa premier league, footballer, gay, george h w bush, gun control, jennifer lawrence, kate middleton, kepler, kepler 78b, king, leicester car park, lincoln, maggie aderin-pocock, manchester united, Michael Gove, mickey rooney, microsoft, mo farah, mourinho, nancy reagan, nasa, nelson mandela, nokia, Novak Djokovic, oscar predictions, oscars, peter capaldi, piers morgan, predictions, President of Syria, prince george, richard attenborough, richard briers, richard iii, robbie rogers, robert mugabe, rory mcilroy, sapphire and steel, shirley maclaine, silver linings playbook, the sky at night, tom baker, ukip, ununseptium, voyager 1, wimbledon, world athletics championships, world meteorological organisation
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