Avaragado’s 2014 predictions

Here they are: the 2014 predictions literally everyone hasn’t been waiting for. Please return regularly to check my progress and coincidentally bump the readership stats on my blog to make me feel better.

News

  1. In the referendum on independence, Scotland votes No.
  2. Brazil grants asylum to Edward Snowden.
  3. The Lib Dems replace Nick Clegg as leader.
  4. UKIP wins more MEPs in the European Parliamentary Elections than the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems.
  5. An iconic building or monument is damaged in a freak/climate change weather event.
  6. Paul Dacre leaves his position as chief bigot/editor at the Daily Mail.
  7. More than 50% of Daily Express front page main headlines are about the weather.

Sport

  1. Brazil win the World Cup. England don’t qualify from the group stage.
  2. Liverpool win the FA Premier League.
  3. Team GB win exactly one medal at the Winter Olympics in Sochi.
  4. Andy Murray loses in the semi-final of the men’s singles at Wimbledon.
  5. Wales win the rugby union Six Nations tournament.
  6. Johnny Brownlee wins the ITU World Triathlon Series.

Science and technology

  1. Steve Ballmer is replaced as CEO of Microsoft by Satya Nadella.
  2. The crew of the International Space Station is evacuated because of orbital debris.
  3. Apple announces a “revolutionary” (in their words) new TV device.
  4. The Nobel prize for physics is won by someone in the field of quantum computing/communication.
  5. Google buys Oculus VR.
  6. Webcam video of a celebrity, obtained covertly by an intelligence agency, leaks on the internet.

Entertainment

  1. Best picture at the Oscars: 12 Years a Slave.
  2. Best actor at the Oscars: Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave.
  3. Best actress at the Oscars: Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks.
  4. Bruce Forsyth stops presenting Strictly Come Dancing.
  5. The BBC reboots a classic 1970s sitcom (eg Dad’s Army).
  6. In one of those “celebrities doing stuff” shows (Splash, Strictly, Dancing on Wolves, etc) a celebrity does stuff that results in a nasty injury on live TV.

Celebrity deathwatch

  1. His Racist Highness Prince Philip, 92
  2. Nobel Peace Prize winner and war criminal Henry Kissinger, 90
  3. Thatcher defenestrator Lord (Geoffrey) Howe, 87
  4. Swivel-eyed Ulster firebrand preacher Ian Paisley, 87
  5. Oh no, it’s Yoko Ono, 80
  6. Fifties teen idol and Half a Sixpence crooner Tommy Steele, 77
  7. Much better than the last one Pope Francis, 77
  8. Founder of CNN and all-round not-Murdoch Ted Turner, 75
  9. Nobody did it better than Carly Simon, 68
  10. Free software evangelist and beardy gnu-lover Richard Stallman, 60
  11. Wayward ex-gurner and Gazza Paul Gascoigne, 46
  12. Apprentice self-firing rent-a-gob Katie Hopkins, 38

Based on the pattern of previous years I’m expecting to get about 40% right. Join me this time next year to find out whether I’ve got that prediction wrong too.

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Avaragado’s 2013 predictions – results

Here we are again. New Year’s Eve, fireworks, and celebrations filmed several weeks ago presented as if live TV. And most importantly, the results of my fabulous 2013 predictions – as marked by Chris Walsh, as usual. Commentary etc in square brackets.

News

  1. ✗ The Assad regime in Syria will fall. [Bashar al-Assad still President of Syria]
  2. ✓ There will be no changes in US federal gun-control laws. [Obama has called for tighter gun control, but no actual laws yet]
  3. ✓ The Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a human boy. [21-Jul: Duchess of Cambridge gives birth to the future king]
  4. ✗ At least one Tory MP will defect to UKIP. [Plenty of councillors defected, and one UKIP MEP defected to the Conservatives, but this specific prediction proved false]
  5. ✗ The equal marriage bill for England and Wales will pass in the Commons but not the Lords. [15-Jul: Equal marriage bill for England and Wales has passed its Third Reading in the House of Lords]
  6. ✓ Dangerous idiot Michael Gove will be involved in a scandal over the exam board selection process for the new EBacc exams. [07-Feb: Education Secretary to announce dramatic climbdown over plans to scrap GCSEs]

[Score: 3/6]

Sport

  1. ✓ Manchester United will win the FA Premier League. [22-Apr: Manchester United won their 13th Premier League title by defeating Aston Villa 3-0 at Old Trafford]
  2. ✗ Chelsea FC will change manager at least twice. [Only one change of manager in 2013: Benitez -> Mourinho]
  3. ✓ At least one British person will win a Wimbledon title. [08-Jul: Andy Murray wins Wimbledon 2013 men’s singles final with straight sets victory over Novak Djokovic]
  4. ✓ Mo Farah will win at least one gold medal at the World Athletics Championships. [10-Aug: Won the 10,000m. Also 16-Aug: Won 5,000m]
  5. ✗ Rory McIlroy will win at least two majors in golf. [Wikipedia: “McIlroy began 2013 with high aspirations, but mostly did not fare well in early tournaments… 25th place at the 2013 Masters Tournament… won the 2013 Emirates Australian Open]
  6. ✗ At least one footballer playing in the UK will come out as gay or bisexual. [Robbie Rogers, but he plays in the USA]

[Score: 3/6]

Science and technology

  1. ✓ Microsoft will buy Nokia. [03-Sep: Microsoft to buy Nokia’s mobile phone unit]
  2. ✗ Scientists will announce the synthesis of one or more atoms of element 119 or higher. [Ununseptium remains the most recently synthesised transuranic element, in 2010. Sapphire and Steel have been assigned]
  3. ✓ NASA will declare that Voyager 1 has left the solar system and entered interstellar space. [12-Sep: Voyager 1 departs to interstellar space]
  4. ✗ Scientists will announce the discovery of an ‘Earth twin’ – an Earth-sized exoplanet within the habitable zone of its star. [Kepler 78b is the same size as Earth, and has same proportions of iron and rock, but is so close to the sun that its year lasts 8.5 hours, rendering it a little too toasty to be habitable]
  5. ✓ The year will be one of the ten warmest years in the global record, and warmer than 2012, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. [13-Nov: “The year 2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since modern records began. January-September 2013 was warmer than the same period in both 2011 and 2012.” We’re catching up with Kepler 78b!]
  6. ✓ Archaeologists will confirm that the bones dug up in a Leicester car park are those of Richard III. [04-Feb: DNA confirms bones are king’s]

[Score: 4/6]

Entertainment

  1. ✗ Lincoln will receive the Oscar for Best Picture. [Feb-24: Argo]
  2. ✓ Daniel Day-Lewis will receive the Oscar for Best Actor for his performance in Lincoln.
  3. ✓ Jennifer Lawrence will receive the Oscar for Best Actress for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook.
  4. ✓ The 50th anniversary of Doctor Who will involve appearances (in newly filmed scenes) from at least one former Doctor. [23-Nov: Tennant and Baker T, plus future Doctor!]
  5. ✗ The BBC will cancel The Sky at Night (probably while pretending not to). [Still running – Maggie Aderin-Pocock announced in December 2013 as a new presenter]
  6. ✓ The UK entry will finish in the third quarter of the rankings (ie, top half of the bottom half) in the Eurovision Song Contest. [1pt. 18-May: 19th out of 26 puts us 73% of the way down the leader board]

[Score: 4/6]

Celebrity Deathwatch

[We decided to award half a point per death to make the scores more compatible with predictions from previous years, since I included double the usual number of names in this section. We also abandoned the idea to score based on ages.]

  1. ✗ Denis Healey (95)
  2. ✓ Nelson Mandela (94) [Died 5-Dec aged 95]
  3. ✗ Mickey Rooney (92)
  4. ✗ Nancy Reagan (91)
  5. ✗ Richard Attenborough (89)
  6. ✗ Robert Mugabe (88)
  7. ✗ George H. W. Bush (88)
  8. ✓ Richard Briers (78) [Died 17-Feb aged 79]
  9. ✗ Barry Humphries (78)
  10. ✗ Shirley MacLaine (78)
  11. ✗ Bill Murray (62)
  12. ✗ Piers Morgan (47)

[Score: 1/6]

[Total score: 15/30]

A staggering score of 50%! This makes 2013 officially my most successful year ever for predictions. And if the trend of alternating better-worse but generally rising is anything to go by, my predictions for 2014 are on course for 40%. Though I can reveal that’s not one of my official 2014 predictions, otherwise we’re adrift in a glittering sea of meta.

Anyway, return soon for the 2014 predictions in all their 40%-likely glory.

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Wind’s in the east

Another film about a film, another sign of Hollywood zombification: unable to come up with an original idea, it feasts on the still-warm corpse of a past glory. The “making of” concept is just the sequel/prequel trick on a perpendicular axis, the mark of a desperate industry scrambling for relevance in the internet age. Jebus help us when tinseltown discovers the third dimension.

Oh.

But despite all that, from its trailer Saving Mr Banks looked different, deeper than expected. Sure, it’s a Disney film, and Walt Disney’s a major character, and he’s played by serial schmaltzer Tom Hanks. And yet it’s not a film I instinctively wanted to sprint away from at light speed while vomiting from every orifice.

This is partly down to Emma Thompson, who’s perfect as Poppins creator P L “Mrs” Travers and has all the best, desert-dry gags in the film. (Although compared to the bustled biddy of reality she’s a few years too young.)

It’s also related to the comic moments, showing the true-to-life tension between Mrs Travers and the writers trying to craft a film we all know so well. She’s desperate to find a reason to walk away from the deal, and the Disneyites are desperate to keep her happy while making something people might want to actually watch. The truth is, she doesn’t want Disney — or anyone — to make the picture. Even though she’s pretty much skint, she’s very protective and doesn’t want a skipful of sugar dumped all over her story, her characters, her family. Walt tries to convince her this won’t happen — he’s been trying to convince her for twenty years — and we know he’ll win eventually. But that’s not what the film’s truly about.

It’s all in the backstory. This isn’t a film about the making of Mary Poppins: it’s a film about the making of P L Travers. Throughout the two hours we flash back from present-day 1961 LA to the Australian outback in the nineteen-oughts and the experiences of a young girl in a struggling family. This girl’s relationship with her father (Colin Farrell) is the core of the backstory, and the core of the film. The girl is, of course, Mrs Travers herself.

That’s what transforms this film from a will-this-do Hanks vehicle into something more special. You certainly won’t watch Mary Poppins the same way again the next time it’s on TV, in about fifteen microseconds.

Expect an Oscar nomination for Emma Thompson. And maybe one for Hanks too, because Disney.

Tremendous movie. Stay through the credits for a special treat.

Oh, yes. In Brazil this film is called “Walt Behind the Scenes of Mary Poppins”. I can’t even.

Avaragado’s rating: no pears.

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iOS 7 Grumble Centre

I am, of course, an Apple fanboy. As I write I’m about to pick up an iPad Mini with retina display — my first iPad, incidentally. I have an iPhone 5, which naturally I’ve upgraded to iOS 7.

There’s more than a hint of “Will this do?” in some of the UI for iOS 7. It’s no real secret the engineering team embarked on a radical visual shift for iOS on a tight schedule, so it’s not surprising if some of the elements still feel a little undercooked and segfaulty. I salute their indefatigability, etc.

The lack of polish is very noticeable for me in the Notification Center, in its Today view. You can turn bits of this on and off: I have Stocks switched off, but all the other elements on. I doubt this is unusual.

I have no problem with the enormous date. I’m a fan of enormous dates. Below, the weather in text form. Meh: weather is better shown graphically, and without a hint of a semi-colon. But hey, it’s tappable, and takes you to the Weather app. Useful, no big deal.

Below that, the Today view shows what Settings calls Calendar Day View, and then (because I have no reminders and Stocks is switched off) the Tomorrow Summary. Here’s where I get irritated. So irritated I’ve annotated a couple of screenshots.

ios7-notification-calendar

Let’s review those points:

  • You can tap on the weather, which shows you no indication that you can tap on it, to take you to the Weather app. But you can’t tap on any part of an empty calendar, even though it shows a highly tappable icon, to take you to the Calendar app. (If you have an event that day, you can tap that to go to the event in the Calendar app.)
  • When you have no events, Calendar Day View still takes up acres of space. This means you have to scroll to the Tomorrow Summary.
  • The Tomorrow Summary knows about all-day events but can’t be bothered to tell you what they are.
  • The Calendar Day View appears to be too dumb to show all-day events anyway.

It strikes me these are all relatively easy to fix. Will they be fixed before iOS 8? I wonder.

Note: Comments from Android fanboys fanboying about Android will be yawned at.

PS I annotated the screenshots in Keynote. I think that means I’m now entitled to call myself a Chief Something Officer.

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Vote Brand

“If voting changed anything, they’d abolish it.”

“No matter who you vote for, the government gets in.”

These are age-old gags: clichés, even. And they pretty well summarise Russell Brand’s point, I think: there’s no point in voting if your vote doesn’t matter. Either this shower or that shower gets in, give or take a third-party drizzle. Initial excitement and hope gives way to reality. They all court Murdoch and the right-wing press (Leveson hasn’t changed the landscape significantly). They all kowtow to demands of big business ( “…or we’ll move our company elsewhere” — corporate blackmail, or what nobody ever seems to call “economic terrorism” for some reason, is endemic).

Brand’s decision not to vote is his choice. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but neither do I agree with mandatory voting. Many people make the same choice — turnout at elections is low, even for general elections — and the difference with Brand is that he has a voice. He articulates, compellingly, at length, on TV and in newspapers, the reasons he doesn’t vote, and thousands of people watching and reading nod in agreement. Various media types and entrenched politicians hold up distracting shiny things — no, he doesn’t offer any true solutions, yes, he’s a sexist, no, there is unlikely to be a full-on, tanks-out revolution — but the fact is: in the substance of his comments about politics, disregarding his choice of whether to vote or not, Brand is right.

Which makes him a dangerous subversive who must be stopped.

He’s an easy target: his history, his reputation, his appearance, his money, even his articulacy. The qualities that give him the platform to speak are used to attack him for speaking. Of course, the correct way to obtain a platform is to be a member of the establishment, or a hereditary politician. The platform daddy built is the platform of choice for all right-thinking persons.

Brand says: “The only reason to vote is if the vote represents power or change”. I’m sure it’s a view shared by many, and it’s a legitimate view. If he feels the only choices available in his constituency all lead to the same result, he has the right not to vote. I’m not entirely convinced by the critic’s standard response: “If he doesn’t vote then he has no right to complain”. The disenfranchised are still citizens, aren’t they? The views of sixteen and seventeen-year-olds — who can marry, go to war, drive, etc — still matter, don’t they? Members of the House of Lords can’t vote for MPs but they seem able to do some quite significant complaining. Just as I pay taxes that go to services I won’t use, for the good of society as a whole — child benefit, for example — I believe those affected by government, whether they vote or not, are entitled to voice their opinion.

The right-wing papers certainly make their opinions known, and they’re generally owned by foreigners like Murdoch, or patriotic Brits like Viscount Rothermere who reside in France for tax purposes and pay no tax in this country. They would seem to me to be more legitimate targets than Russell Brand.

But anyway: I can think of three easy ways to make voting represent power or change, in a way that might make Russell Brand and those others who currently withhold their vote change their minds. (Because that’s what we should be doing rather than criticising them for not voting for people they don’t want to vote for.)

1. Legitimacy threshold

If no candidate in an election receives the votes of more than 50% (or some other threshold of legitimacy) of the entire electorate — not the voters who turned out — then the election is invalid and rerun with new candidates.

Potentially expensive and never-ending, and the constituency is unrepresented in parliament while this happens. But it’ll concentrate the minds of the candidates on the issues in that constituency, over and above national issues.

2. None of the above

Add ‘None of the above’ to the ballot paper. If that pseudo-candidate wins, the election is invalid and rerun with new candidates (and ‘None of the above’ again).

A less extreme version of (1). This gives current non-voters a great incentive to vote if none of the candidates appeals.

3. Proportional representation

Yeah, well, the public were offered this option but turned it down thanks to a concerted campaign by the vested interests, the establishment — and a shambolic one by its supporters.

And what happened with option (3) is why we’ll never see options (1) or (2) enacted. Because if voting changed anything, they’d abolish it.

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The one after next

The detention of David Miranda at Heathrow airport under the Terrorism Act is beyond disturbing. As David Allen Green writes, he was detained under schedule 7 of the act, which allows for such detention only to determine whether someone “is or has been concerned in the commission, preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism”.

Officials are not allowed to detain anyone for a fishing expedition. But they are allowed to detain someone even if they have no reasonable suspicion. And since the people they detain usually don’t have an intimate knowledge of the law — and the law doesn’t give those detained the right to legal representation — the net effect is surely that officials detain whoever they want to detain, for whichever reasons.

The Home Office says schedule 7 “forms an essential part of the UK’s security arrangements”. Of course it does: an empire doesn’t give up hard-won powers without a pitched battle and the stink of revolution.

Whitehall also says, almost apologetically, “the powers should not be used arbitrarily”. In 2012-13, schedule 7 was used on 61,145 people, 12% down on 2011-12. Good news! But of those 70,000-odd detentions in 2011-12, there were just 24 terrorism-related arrests: 0.03% of people stopped (source).

That is overreach. That is arbitrary use of powers.

And of course, officials can steal the computers, phones, etc, of these detainees whether they go on to arrest them or not.

The reality of life at the UK Border: you have no rights to person or property.

If David Miranda had posed a terrorist threat you can be sure the details would have been leaked gleefully to the papers by now, probably to the spook-friendly Daily Mail, and ministers would be queuing up to appear on TV condemning him before trial and pronouncing Glenn Greenwald guilty by association. Since there has been no leak and our servants in government are apparently unavailable for comment, I therefore conclude from my self-elected position as armchair judge, jury and executioner, that Miranda did not pose such a threat.

His detention wasn’t arbitrary: it was capricious and most likely unlawful. He wasn’t detained in case he was a terrorist, but for “travelling while in the process of committing journalism that might embarrass the state”, or perhaps “travelling while being the partner of an irritating journalist”.

Naturally Scotland Yard says Miranda’s detention was “legally sound”. This is the Scotland Yard with such a strong record in matters of law: the one that claimed the unarmed, entirely innocent bystander Jean-Charles De Menezes was a terrorist; the one that took four years to admit one of its officers used “excessive and unlawful force” and killed Ian Tomlinson; the one deeply enmired in the phone hacking scandal. We’re close to being able to state confidently that whatever Scotland Yard says, the opposite is the truth.

I’ve said this many times, and it’s truer than ever. The test of any proposed new law should not be how it is intended to be used today, nor how the next government or the next set of police commissioners might decide to interpret it. It’s about the government and the police that come after them. The ones we cannot know, living in a world we cannot know, with pressures and technologies and enemies and realities we cannot know.

Arbitrary and capricious detention at the border. Spooks tapping internet traffic without proper oversight. A push to impose censorship on internet connections on spurious grounds. Destruction of hard drives by security services at newspaper offices.

Who will be prime minister on August 20, 2023? Cameron? Miliband? The other Miliband? Johnson? Farage? Griffin?

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Tumbling through NS&I hoops

In the olden times when weeks were three days long and daytime TV was a still photo of a young girl losing noughts and crosses to a toy clown, my family bought me a bunch of premium bonds. If you don’t know, premium bonds are a kind of 1950s national lottery: you give an agency of the government some money, they give you some numbers, and those numbers take part in a monthly draw forever. You might win a prize each and every month; you might win nothing, ever. It’s all in the hands of the gods, in this case the god called ERNIE, the random number generator for premium bonds (in the 1950s all computers had to be given names so people wouldn’t grab pitchforks and torches and raze the building).

Fast forward a few decades and a couple of addresses and naturally NS&I, the priests who tend the dead pixels of ERNIE’s 2013 descendant, no longer know where I live. Having found my premium bond holder’s number and discovered I won £50 nine years ago that’s still waiting for me to claim, I thought I’d sign up to their online service at nsandi.com and ask for my winnings.

“Complete the online and phone registration form”, said the website. By which they mean, it turned out: give us all the pertinent details and we’ll generate a PDF for you that includes those details, which you must then print, sign, have witnessed, and then post.

Not the mightiest of faffs, and I suppose fair enough — though it’s hardly the most fraud-proof authenticator. Dutifully, and via PC World to address the inevitable empty printer cartridge, I did as I was told and posted the form.

A few days ago I received two letters, in identical envelopes, with identical plastic windows showing identical address formatting. Neither said NS&I on the outside, but they both evidently had the same sender.

One letter gave me my NS&I number: an eleven-digit identifier. My username.

The other letter contained, beneath a fancy-dancy pull-off plastic strip, an eight-character alphanumeric temporary password for my NS&I account.

So they sent separate letters for username and password for security, but in the same post so they’d likely arrive at the same time. Not particularly secure. Surely better, if they want to keep these things separate, to send them by different means: number by text message, password by post, or something. Anyway.

The password letter said I’d need to choose a new password for the site on first login. Helpfully, it gave the constraints:

The password you choose must have between 6 and 8 characters. You need to include at least one number, at least one special character, as well as a mixture of upper and lower case letters.

I understand the purpose of the character type constraints. Although enforcing a number and a special character reduces the total entropy of a password (an attacker knows that one of the characters has only ten possibilities — the digits 0-9) it increases the strength of the average password. It forces people who’d normally use “password” to use, say, “pAs5w.rd”. But I’d bet a large proportion of people stick the number and punctuation on the end, with an upper case letter at the start: “Foobar9!”. How much more secure is that than “foobar”? Not much. Users subvert constraints, because security trades off against usability.

To illustrate how likely this particular pattern is, the password letter includes this text just after the constraints:

An example is Uhsd895* (do not use this example for your own password).

In any case, a maximum length of eight characters for a password is, these days, laughable.

After ranting about this on Twitter, I left it a day or two. Yesterday I thought I’d try logging in.

Stand by your beds, I’m switching to present tense. It’s more dramatic.

On the first screen, the site asks for my surname and my NS&I number. OK.

On the second screen it wants two characters from my password (hopefully these are randomly chosen). Hmm. Presumably this is intended to defeat keyloggers (in fact it’s not usually much help), but unfortunately it also defeats password managers that like to fill in password boxes for you. And it might also mean NS&I is storing passwords in its database in plaintext.

Next screen: choose a new password. Here it doesn’t tell me what the password constraints are. I presume they’re the same as in the letter. I generate a random password in my password manager, limiting it to eight characters, and this is accepted.

Next screen: security questions. Five of them. All mandatory. Each with a separate picklist of choices. At least one of the available questions seems US-biased (wanting my “first-grade teacher”). Others are  ambiguous (“favourite sports team”) or easily discoverable (“university”) or can be socially engineered.

Right, done that, is that everything? No.

Below that, three boxes for security phone numbers. Thankfully only one is mandatory.

Am I done now? Not yet.

Next screen: I must select one from about eight or ten thumbnail images. My selection will be displayed on the login page as “reassurance” that I’m on the site I think I am.

Am I done now? Nope.

Below that: I must enter a “login phrase” as yet further “reassurance” when I log in. I enter something short and pithy.

And then, finally, I’m done. I have hauled my weary body through the maze of twisty passages all of limited utility, and have made it to NS&I’s secure website where I can claim my £50.

I click “Prize History” on the sidebar of the early-noughties design. I select my premium bond holder number from the list of two items (“please select” and my number). To select a date range there are two date pickers dug up from about the late eighteenth century which open actual new browser windows with ugly calendars. I decide to look between January 2000 and now, because, well, why not. (I don’t bother to read the text below, which nobody ever reads, and which says “We can only show prizes won since the online service for Premium Bonds was introduced. Click Info to find out more.”)

I click Next. There, in the world’s tiniest writing, several miles from the most appropriate place: “Please enter a start date bigger or equal to 01-01-2011”. (The Info popup says much the same thing, but in English.)

nsandi-1

Hang on. I won my prize in 2004. Are you telling me the unclaimed-prize checker you don’t need an NS&I account to use has more data, going back further in time, than the hoop-tumbling monstrosity that is the secure, authenticated account-holder site?

It’s at this point I realise I’ll be writing this blog post.

OK, I’ll play their game. I change the start date to 01-01-2011 and click Next. It whispers another error message: “ZTS90009 : Please enter a start date bigger or equal to 08-07-2011”. No reason given.

nsandi-2

This sort of half-baked rubbish no longer surprises me, so I change the picker to exactly that date. Here’s what it squeaks now, in that same tiny font, just as if it were an error: “ZTS90007 : There are no prizes to display.”

nsandi-3

Thanks for that.

How do I claim my £50? After much clicking around I find nothing on the authenticated site that lets me do that.

I log out, huff and puff, and hunt down the website’s feedback form. I keep my comments and my question short: essentially, “I’ve got an NS&I account. How do I claim an unclaimed premium bond prize?”

An hour or so later, I receive a reply by email:

To claim your outstanding prize please can you write to us quoting :

1. Your name and address

2. Your holder’s number

3. The prize details as stated on the website

To make sure that we provide the highest levels of security, we require the signature of the holder to enable us to issue any replacement warrants.

You know, something tells me they haven’t upgraded ERNIE since about 1964, and it’s still running their IT. And I suspect I might shortly be booking a very pleasant railway journey to NS&I Glasgow, armed with a pitchfork and a flaming torch.

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Copyright exception for private copying

The Intellectual Property Office (which sounds like it’s an estate agent for PhDs) is giving people the opportunity to comment on draft legislation on changes to copyright law. There are currently four documents describing the proposed changes, including an exception for private copying — such as ripping your own CDs to your own iPod.

Here’s the guts of the proposed private copying exception (PDF):

28B Private copying

(1) Copyright is not infringed where an individual uses a copy of a copyright work lawfully acquired by him to make a further copy of that work provided that:

(a) the further copy is made for that individual’s private use for ends that are neither directly nor indirectly commercial;

(b) the copy from which the further copy is made is held by the individual on a permanent basis (for example it is not a copy that is rented to the individual for a specified period or borrowed from a library); and

(c) the making of the further copy does not involve the circumvention of effective technological measures applied to the copy from which it is made.

To my non-legal mind this has a couple of flaws.

First, in 28B 1(b), the word “permanent” is troubling. If I legitimately purchase an ebook for Kindle, Amazon has the ability to remotely delete the ebook or modify it at any time, and I cannot stop this happening. Given Amazon’s abilities, are Kindle ebooks considered to be “held by the individual on a permanent basis” or not? It’s reasonable, given Amazon’s powers, to say they aren’t.

I’d say that transferring a legitimately purchased ebook from a Kindle to another reading device is an act the private copying exception is intended explicitly to permit, and I’m not convinced the clause as written is sufficient.

Then in 28B 1(c) we have what amounts to a DRM exception to the exception. This line neuters the private copying exception entirely so it becomes, effectively, “you may make a private copy if the copyright owner allows it”. This is not the exception as advertised at all.

It should be expressly permitted to circumvent effective technological measures for the sole purpose of private copying.

I’ve sent these two comments to the IPO.

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Aggressive homosexuals vs aggressive heterosexuals

This morning I created an image and posted it to Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Here’s the tweet:

For context: the phrase “aggressive homosexuals” comes from a speech yesterday in the House of Commons by Sir Gerald Howarth MP (Conservative, Aldershot) during the Report stage debate of the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Bill. Sir Gerald is the current chairman of Conservative Way Forward and was Minister for International Security Strategy in the coalition government until September 2012 (according to his page on Wikipedia). Here’s where the phrase appeared in the speech:

“There are plenty in the aggressive homosexual community who see this [same-sex marriage] is as but a stepping stone to something even further.” (Hansard — no idea how persistent that link will be though.)

Sir Gerald doesn’t elaborate on exactly who the aggressive homosexual community are, or where he thinks the big gay stepping stone leads. As Hansard shows, a number of MPs tried to intervene at that point — perhaps to press him on this issue — but he declined to give way, as is his right.

It is difficult not to conclude that Sir Gerald sees pinks under the beds. He’s worked himself up into a froth about The Gays and believes that we, or at least a significant and influential slice thereof, subscribe to some kind of Gay Agenda to… I don’t know. Insinuate our way into marriage, and then what: use it to destroy the established church? I think the church is doing a perfectly good job of that itself over both gay people and women. Perhaps, looking at the context of the speech, he thinks our goal is to turn children to homosexuality by ensuring its mention in classrooms during discussions about marriage. Just as, presumably, teaching them about different religions converts them to all of those religions, or teaching them about contour lines turns them into a hill.

Back to the image.

The response has been fascinating. A steady stream of retweets throughout the day — perhaps not surprising, as it makes a strong statement on a topical, politically charged subject — and a few responses. Here are the negative replies so far:

“You do realise that despite your intentions, you’re labelling people with stereotypes.”

“That is way more offensive and way less clever than you think.”

“No. Aggressive homophobes.”

“What’s the intended goal of this? This seems to just further divide people (and straw-man the ‘other side’).”

“This is heterophobia.”

“Yeah a bit discriminatory. Ronnie Kray was a violent homosexual as was Richard the Lionheart. And let us not forget Dennis Nilsen. Violent people are of both persuasions.  Nothing to do with their sexuality.”

“Please be careful with that big stereotyping brush of yours eh?”

I haven’t replied to anyone, at least not yet. I probably won’t — it’s impossible to have meaningful debates in 140 characters. Perhaps some of them were unaware of Sir Gerald’s speech. Of course I’m stereotyping: so was Sir Gerald. Of course sexuality doesn’t determine whether you’re violent or not (but if you have to go back eight centuries for a counterexample — when sexuality was viewed very differently to today, incidentally — then you’re already on shaky ground).

The image is deliberately exaggerated, deliberately stereotypical. But it’s also showing an incontrovertible truth. You don’t, as a rule, see gay people demonstrating against straight people — Pride marches are positive in tone, not negative — but there are demonstrations by straight people against gay people, trying to deny us the rights they enjoy. There was a demonstration against equal marriage outside Parliament during the debate yesterday. And people like those shown in the image are beaten for no other reason than their sexuality. One of the men pictured was attacked last weekend with his boyfriend. Even 45 years after homosexuality was decriminalised in England and Wales it is still not safe for two men, breaking no law, to show affection wherever they wish in the way that a man and a woman can.

This is why the phrase aggressive homosexual community is so offensive. Gay people have suffered at the hands of the aggressive heterosexual community, indeed often through state-sponsored aggression, for several hundred years. We suffer still: religious leaders preach hate, political leaders deny us equality, and in some countries being open about our sexuality means a death sentence. And this is why I make no apology for the image, stereotypes and all.

But Sir Gerald Howarth is right on one point: we in the aggressive homosexual community do want equal marriage to be a stepping stone to something. We want it to be a stepping stone to the end of discrimination. To universal acceptance. To normality.

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Announcing 88press

88pressThe old publishing model is dying. To reuse an analogy I’m fond of, the asteroid has hit and the dinosaurs are, one by one, coughing their last. Small shrew-like creatures are blinking into the dust-red skies and mutating FTW.

Nobody knows which new model or models will succeed. Some shrews will evolve into primitive monkeys. Some will become mammoths. Some, cute little proto-horses. Some, rats. And maybe there’ll be a unicorn in there somewhere.

However it turns out, it’s evident that services previously provided in-house by traditional publishers are already being carved out into separate entities. For example, publishers now increasingly contract out copy-editing rather than keep copy-editors twiddling their blue pencils on payroll.

And in the brave new world of self-publishing, also known as indie publishing, writers are starting to recognise — after the initial DIY that’ll do phase — that high-quality books need third-party help: one or more of developmental editing, copy-editing, proofreading, cover design, charts and diagrams, and — for those who want print-on-demand dead-tree books — professional book design and layout.

Yes, authors can do these things themselves. No, most can’t do them very well, or well enough.

Enter 88press.

88press home page

88press aims to provide editorial and publishing services for indie/self-published writers. For words: copy-editing and proofreading services (developmental editing isn’t currently on the list). For graphics: cover design (ebooks and printed books), and charts and diagrams. Plus book template design and layout for print-on-demand, for those using CreateSpace or other similar services. In other words: a bunch of services previously provided by a traditional publisher, available on a pick-and-mix basis at reasonable cost.

To be clear: 88press is not a publisher in the old-school sense. I’ll put my own books out under the 88press label, and maybe one or two others, but I don’t plan to open the door to any old manuscript. Neither do I expect 88press to deal with marketing or distribution to retailers. The goal of 88press isn’t to become one of the dinosaurs: the days of cultural gatekeepers are over. The focus is on helping indie writers release the best book possible.

Find out more at 88press.com. Operators are standing by…

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