Monthly Archives: December 2023

Avaragado and friends predict 2024

Slightly depleted by Covid, which apparently no longer exists, a hardy group of six gathered at the traditional venue to celebrate the year end and commiserate the year start.

The year of oh lord 2023 is what we now must call “relatively stable,” in that the UK changed neither monarch nor prime minister and we were not confined to our homes by law (exceptions apply, eg partying while Tory).

The oncoming storm of 2024 promises much in the way of little. In a similar vein, here are the group’s predictions… please note that as is traditional, Chris participated alcoholically.

STOP PRESS: Chef has supplied his Covid-riddled predictions by sterilised means, so I’ve added them.

Predictions

  • Randoms:
    • AndyC: Virgin Galactic goes completely bust “and stops”
    • Chris: “Humanity lands on the moon before the end of 2024”
  • David: When will the general election be?
    • Adrian: June
    • Louise: June
    • AndyC: May
    • David: May
    • Melanie: July
    • Chris: 2024
    • Chef: 2025
  • David: Who will win the election?
    • Adrian: Labour
    • Louse: Labour
    • AndyC: Keir
    • David: Labour
    • Melanie: Labour
    • Chris: Green
    • Chef: Labour
  • Adrian: Does the Gaza war spread to Egypt?
    • Adrian: Yes, in June
    • Louise: No, to Lebanon maybe
    • AndyC: Both sides sign up to dual state
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No
    • Chris: “No, not before the end of January thank you”
    • Chef: Not Egypt, Syria
  • Melanie: How many states will ban Trump from standing?
    • Adrian: 5
    • Louise: 4
    • AndyC: 4
    • David: 3
    • Melanie: 6
    • Chris: 79
    • Chef: Effectively none – supreme court will overrule the bans
  • Louise: Will there be at least one riot in the UK linked to the cost of living crisis?
    • Adrian: No
    • Louise: Yes
    • AndyC: Yes
    • David: No
    • Melanie: No, it’ll be something else
    • Chris: “There is no cost of living crisis, everyone is rich”
    • Chef: No (too many strikes for people to get there)
  • Adrian: Who is the next US president?
    • Adrian: Michelle Obama
    • Louise: Trump
    • AndyC: Kanye West
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Elon Musk
    • Chris: Michael J Fox
    • Chef: Biden
  • Melanie: Who will be the most famous/damaging person to appear on the Epstein list?
    • Adrian: Barack Obama
    • Louise: Samuel L Jackson
    • AndyC: Farage
    • David: Trump
    • Melanie: Tom Hanks
    • Chris: Russell Brand, Bernard Cribbins
    • Chef: Bill Clinton
  • Celebrity deaths
    • Adrian: The Queen, Nigel Farage
    • Louise: Joe Biden, David Attenborough
    • AndyC: Jimmy Carr
    • David: Prince Andrew, Neil Kinnock
    • Melanie: Fergie, DIonne Warwick
    • Chris: Harrison Ford
    • Chef: A Beatle, a Rolling Stone

See you next year!

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Avaragado’s 2023 predictions – results

Oh, you again. I write after the sun has set on another year but has not yet risen on the new, which is a very long way of saying it’s 6pm on NYE. And it’s just late enough that I’m confident a bunch of our rubbish predictions a year ago won’t suddenly come true in the last gasp. There’s always a chance of a celebrity death, I suppose.

Here now are the results, with my comments in bold in square brackets.

Predictions

  • Louise: will China try to invade Taiwan?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: China will invade Japan
    • Melanie: yes
    • AndyC: no
    • David. no
    • Louise: yes
    • [China did not, thankfully]
  • Louise: will Putin die?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: Who’s Putin? No
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Putin did not, sadly]
  • Chris: who will be the Glastonbury headliners?
    • Chef: PinkPantheress. Doja Cat
    • Chris: Taylor Swift, Arctic Monkeys
    • Melanie: Dua Lipa, Harry Styles
    • AndyC: Eminem, Rihanna
    • David: Rolling Stones, Taylor Swift
    • Louise: pass
    • [According to Wikipedia: Arctic Monkeys, Guns N’ Roses, Elton John. Chris wins!]
  • Chef: will the Bank of England base rate hit 5%?
    • Chef: no, 4.75%
    • Chris: no, 4.5%
    • Melanie: yes, 5%
    • AndyC: yes, 5.5%
    • David: yes, 6%
    • Louise: yes, 5%
    • [It did, and is currently at its peak of 5.25%]
  • David: when will Jeremy Hunt stop being Chancellor?
    • Chef: he won’t
    • Chris: he won’t
    • Melanie: he won’t
    • AndyC: he won’t
    • David: June
    • Louise: he won’t
    • [He didn’t.]
  • AndyC: will the government do a Covid booster for under 50s?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: yes
    • David: yes
    • Louise: no – but people will be able to pay to get one
    • [They didn’t, for no reason anyone can fathom except the standard Tories innit]
  • Chef: will there be another Scottish referendum on independence?
    • Chef: yes
    • Chris: yes
    • Melanie: no
    • AndyC: no
    • David: no
    • Louise: no
    • [Not so far. None of us predicted Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation]
  • AndyC: will the Cambridge congestion charge be approved?
    • Chef: no
    • Chris: not in its current form, yes eventually
    • Melanie: sadly yes
    • AndyC: yes but changed
    • David: yes
    • Louise: yes
    • [Amazingly, it’s not going to happen]
  • Chef: nominate some celebrity deaths
    • Chef: Elton John, Robbie Williams
    • Chris: Barry Manilow, Greta Thunberg
    • Melanie: Dick van Dyke, Britney Spears
    • AndyC: Elon Musk, Michael Eavis, Joe Biden
    • David: Henry Kissinger, Piers Morgan
    • Louise: David Attenborough, Volodymyr Zelenskyy
    • [Finally, Kissinger died]

Stay tuned for 2024.

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